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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 2
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank Apr 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank Apr 7
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank Apr 24
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jun 2024
OVERVIEW SPENDING VOLUME DOES NOT SUBSTITUTE FOR EFFICIENCY IN ITS USE A project for the country, not a lavish distribution of public money, is what the nation has needed since January 2023. If we were facing a severe recession, with high unemployment and weak demand, some fiscal stimulus wou...
The May CPI data is out: this is when rising inflation is actually good news
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2024
The headline rate of CPI-inflation was reported at -0.1% mom, 4% yoy, the latter rising in the second consecutive month from March's cyclical low of 3.6% yoy and April's slightly higher 3.7% yoy. This increase was not at all unexpected, especially in view of the often recalled unfriendly base eff...
Politics: Landslide Sheinbaum and Morena victory, as a greatly weakened opposition strives to avoid an incumbent supermajority in Congress
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2024
Claudia Sheinbaum's victory in this month’s presidential election had been expected, although few anticipated the almost 60% share of the vote she attained. The Morena-led coalition’s presidential vote grew by almost seven million while the opposition appears to have lost 2.7 million votes. Al...
The rapporteur of the payroll tax relief bill will submit his report this week, the House resumes analysis of the Mover bill, and the Senate CCJ may vote on the bill that authorizes gambling in the country
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2024
The submission of Senator Jaques Wagner's (PT-BA) report on the bill concerning payroll tax relief for companies and municipalities is expected this week. The text will include the agreement reached between companies and the government. This week, the House resumes analysis of Bill No. 914/24, wh...
Business sector optimism improves modestly
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Jun 2024
1. The fiscal deficit continues to drift higher as expenditure growth remains rapid. 2. Business sector sentiment improved modestly, with expectations for inflationary pressure. 3. We expect inflation in May to reach 0.7% m/m, at the high end of consensus.
First reaction to yesterday's election: no great success for Fidesz
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2024
To sum it up, Fidesz did relatively well in most respects, winning the European election in the Hungarian vote and keeping most of their positions at the local government elections, compared to the previous local elections in 2019, and even winning new positions here and there. But they have lost...
EU expanding investments in Central Asian energy to offset ending imports from Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2024
On June 5 MVM (a Hungarian energy conglomerate) said it was going to purchase a 5% stake in the Shah Deniz gas field in the Caspian Sea. It produces over 29 billion cubic meters (bcm). The stake should mean that Hungary receives 1.5 bcm per annum. Hungary also signed a 15 year gas deal with Russi...
Hotter politics, cooler economy
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jun 2024
The Turkish financial markets were rattled briefly mid-week, as the main opposition leader Ozgur Ozel threatened to launch a campaign for early elections. He later clarified his statements, essentially suggesting it is too early for that. Yet, his strategy of negotiating with Erdogan includes lev...
Business sentiment improves modestly, but inflation concerns increase
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Jun 2024
Geopolitics: Israel continues its offensive in Rafah and missiles/drones continue to penetrate Israel from Hezbollah in the North, at generally a more intense level. Gantz (National Unity Party) announced his resignation from the war cabinet on Sunday, criticizing Netanyahu especially for not pla...
St Petersburg Economic Forum: mainly domestic attendance as Putin denounces Western hegemony
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2024
The Forum was held for the 27th time. Putin said that nations are buttressing their sovereignty and he rebuked the West for seeking to maintain dominance. Russia is open about its strategy of appealing to the Global South. Moscow says it is anti-imperialist which is odd as it seeks to rebuild the...
GULF WEEKLY: Aramco equity offering raises $11bn, Kuwait crown prince appointed, Oman spending down -2% in 2023
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Jun 2024 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude partly recovers to $80, after initially bearish sentiments about the OPEC+ deal. * Qatar is hosting more ceasefire consultations as Biden’s Gaza plan faces pushback. * Qalibaf and Ahmadinejad added their names...
Zelensky in France and Qatar
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2024
On June 5 the Ukrainian President met the Emir of Qatar to discuss ending the war. Qatar voted to condemn the Russian invasion but has brokered the return of some Ukrainian children from Russia. Qatar is a back channel between the warring nations. On June 6 Zelensky was in Normandy for the 80th ...
New mobilization law: shifting towards a militarized society
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Jun 2024
Ukraine is implementing new mobilization rules. The recruiting rules in 2022 were very lenient for a full-scale war of attrition. In the early days of the Russian invasion, Ukrainians mobilized voluntarily, and volunteers comprised the core of the army that defeated the Russians in 2022. However,...
Pacheco requested a study on the impact of the MP on PIS/Cofins credits, the rapporteur of the payroll tax relief bill will submit his report next week, and Antonio Rueda assumes the presidency of the União Brasil on Tuesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jun 2024
Yesterday, during the leaders' meeting, the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), said that he requested a study on the MP's impact from the Senate consultancy. Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), rapporteur of the bill that deals with payroll tax relief for companies and city halls, will...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Does the Uzbek sum's appreciation have legs?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Jun 2024
The Uzbekistani sum has generally been the weakest currency in the CCA region for many years for reasons related to powerful underlying relative price movements that have dominated the sum's movements since the opening of the economy in 2017. Hence, any episode of a more sizable strengthening of ...