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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

South Africa’s current account turns favorable as terms of trade improve in Q1 2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Jun 2024

The latest current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank shows that, during the first quarter of 2024, while South Africa’s current account continued its trend of consecutive deficits since Q2 2022, the deficit was noticeably smaller than that of the preceding quarter. The defic...

The government completed the acquisition of Budapest Airport
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2024

Just as expected, the government has acquired a majority stake in Budapest Airport, the Economy Ministry announced yesterday. They bought an 80% stake for €3.1bn (HUF965bn or 1.2% of GDP), the rest purchased by the French airport management company Vinci Airports. Analysts commenting on the deal ...

Largely mediocre numbers this week, from the growth point of view at least
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2024

This morning, the front page of KSH's website started with the pretty good-looking report that the volume of gross industrial output grew by 6.4% yoy in April. Yes, for sure, but there were three more workdays (21) in April 2024 than in April 2023 (18). Consequently, the seasonally and day-adjust...

Kazakhstan macro: no threat to the budget despite insufficient tax revenue flow
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 06 Jun 2024

Recent developments in Kazakhstan show that the country’s economy continues to grow at a decent pace, albeit with a slight deceleration, which is natural after last year’s overheating. Inflation decelerated in May to 0.4% m-o-m (versus 0.6% m-o-m in April), and this could have resulted (at least ...

The Senate approved the Mover bill, the MP on PIS/Cofins credits is being highly criticized, and the rapporteur of the payroll tax relief bill is expected to submit his report soon
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jun 2024

Yesterday, the Senate approved the bill dealing with the Green Mobility and Innovation Program (Mover Program). Although rapporteur Rodrigo Cunha (Podemos-AL) removed the taxation for international purchases from the text, the provision was included again through an amendment. In other tax news, ...

Slide Presentation: Israel - Monetary policy issues: Some good news and some bad news
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jun 2024

Get insight into the factors driving monetary policy rates in Israel with our slide presentation "Monetary policy issues: Some good news and some bad news".

The economy keeps adjusting to new realities
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2024

Rosstat reported that in 4M24, the combined output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for overall economic activity) grew by 6.3% y-o-y. In April alone it was up by 5.5% y-o-y. Despite some deceleration the overall figure looks decent. Economic growth is largely driven by expanding domest...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2024

The Russian securities market appeared under pressure in recent weeks. Tighter rhetoric by CBR officials convinced investors that the key rate may be raised as soon as in June. Market started to price in this scenario, which sent the yield for 10-year OFZ above 15%, while the equity market index ...

Homemade Demand
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Jun 2024

First quarter GDP grew 0.8% in seasonally adjusted terms, slightly above the market's average projection (consensus 0.7%) but below our forecast (1.1%). On the supply side it was driven by the surprising expansion of the agricultural sector (11.3%) and, from a demand perspective, by robust growth...

Georgian Foreign Agents Law enacted
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jun 2024

On June 3 the law was published in the official gazette. The Speaker of Parliament had already signed it into law. The presidential veto was superseded by a parliamentary supermajority. The Speaker claimed that some of those who protested against the bill for months had already changed their mind...

Echoing the uncertain election mood, the South African economy shrinks in the first quarter of 2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Jun 2024

Real quarterly GDP contracted by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2024. This was following an expansion of 0.3% q/q during the fourth quarter of 2023 and a contraction of 0.4% q/q in the third quarter of 2023. This latest GDP print showcases that the South African economy indeed started 2024 on an an...

The MP on measures to compensate for the payroll tax exemption extension was published, the Senate may vote on the Mover bill, and environment employees are on strike
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jun 2024

The provisional measure (MP) to compensate for the extension of the payroll tax exemption was published yesterday. According to the Federal Revenue Service, the cost of the exemption in 2024 is R$26.3 billion. Today, the Senate may vote on the bill that regulates the Green Mobility and Innovation...

Deepening relations between Iran and Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2024

Russia expressed its deepest condolences on the death of the Iranian President on May 19. Iran is one of the few countries outside the former USSR where Russia has a true friend. The death of President Raisi and his foreign minister is unlikely to result in any diminution in the scale of Iranian ...

Parsing the general elections
INDIA · Report · 04 Jun 2024

The BJP was expected to solidly win the elections. They have emerged as the largest single party but with a modest showing. They are about 30 to 40 seats short of a majority coalition. These results give new life to opposition parties. The successful coalition, which is likely to be led by BJP, w...

Bernard Appy will hold a press conference on the second Tax Reform bill, Padilha stated that the economic team will publish compensation measures for the payroll tax exemption, and the Senate may vote on the Mover bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jun 2024

The Extraordinary Secretary for Tax Reform, Bernard Appy, the director of the Extraordinary Secretariat for Tax Reform (Sert), Manoel Procópio Jr., and representatives of states and municipalities will hold a press conference today to outline the second bill on Tax Reform regulation. Alexandre Pa...

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