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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Detailed Q1 GDP affirms preliminary data, reflects improvement but also an unhealthy structure
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jun 2024

This morning's detailed KSH data on Q1 GDP affirmed the preliminary 0.8% qoq, 1.7% yoy growth, a marked improvement from Q4 2023's 0% qoq, 0.5% yoy figures (all on sda basis): Further reasonably good news is the 0.6% qoq, 3.4% yoy expansion measured for household consumption, especially after all...

A first glance at the new political map after the June 2 elections
MEXICO · In Brief · 04 Jun 2024

A first glance at the new political map after the June 2 elections The surprising magnitude of the victory of Morena and its allies in all the elections held on June 2 caused a profound change in the distribution of political power that will last for many years. A victory of Claudia Sheinbaum was...

Fiscal deficit target in 2024 appears credible
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Jun 2024

Fiscal deficit target in 2024 appears credible As we had expected, the MOF just published a revised revenue forecast for 2024, which is 16.2 bl ILS above the original fiscal assumption. This takes into account revenues for the first five months and a conservative estimate for the rest of the year...

OPEC+ outlines production through 2025, phasing out this year’s cuts and giving an uplift for the UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jun 2024 · 1 response

* The ministerial meeting was more ambitious than expected after a shift in venue to Riyadh. * This year’s 2.2m b/d in voluntary cuts by 8 countries will be phased out from Q4-24 to Q3-25. * The UAE has been allocated an additional 300k b/d that will phase in during 2025. * A fuller reallocati...

The new reality and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jun 2024

The government may announce compensation measures for the payroll tax exemptions. It is also expected to send to Congress a bill on Tax Reform regulation that creates the Management Committee. The Senate may vote on a proposal to stimulate the automotive sector (Mover Program) and to institute a...

The Central Bank's Herculean Task
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jun 2024

The dissent in the last Copom meeting complicated further the work of the Central Bank by accentuating the detachment of inflation expectations from the target in adverse global and domestic scenarios. The favorable reading of IPCA-15, which displayed relatively well-behaved underlying measures, ...

Economics: Indicators released in May point to an economic deceleration
MEXICO · Report · 03 Jun 2024

Economic indicators released over the course of May confirm a gradual but sustained weakening of economic activity, which adds to other internal and external economic challenges that will be exacerbated during 2025. The signs of weakening not only extend throughout the supply components, but also...

Greater circumspection on monetary policy
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Jun 2024

When the Monetary Board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP or the Philippines’ central bank) concluded its May 2024 meeting on monetary policy two weeks ago, the stance of monetary policy was established, and it remained hawkish in view of the rising trend of price pressures and the upside r...

Broadly as expected, still sticky
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2024

Consumer prices increased by a slightly higher than expected 3.4%, m/m, in May, with the 12-month rate peaking at 75.5% up from 69.8% in April. Domestic-PPI posted a 2% increase, which raised the 12-month rate to 57.7% from 55.7% a month earlier (Graph 1; Table 1).

Essential CIS Politics: June 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 03 Jun 2024

* In Russia, the defense minister, several cabinet ministers and governors were replaced. * Putin visited Beijing and hailed its partnership with China. * The Foreign Agents Bill was passed in Georgia but vetoed by the President before being finally approved by parliament. ...

The government may announce fiscal measures to compensate for payroll tax relief, the Senate may vote on the Mover bill, and the Tax Reform GT will hold a series of public hearings
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jun 2024

The government may announce measures to compensate for the payroll tax relief for companies and city halls. The rapporteur of the bill in the Federal Senate, Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), is waiting for the announcement of compensatory measures before he submits his report. The Senate may also vote on B...

Hi-tech service exports expand while private consumption slows
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Jun 2024

1. Hi-tech service exports continue to expand, but at a moderate pace. 2. Domestic private consumption has decelerated as more Israelis are traveling abroad. 3. The MoF has maintained its monthly issuance pace but has shortened the average duration in light of pressure for higher yields at ...

Dream summer is here, will it survive X-mas?
TURKEY · Report · 02 Jun 2024

Two months after local elections, the political analyst is able to see the end of the current political disequilibrium. In the base-case scenario, the process culminates in early elections in 2027 or 2028, which would give Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet’s Simsek’s economic stabilization pro...

Exports improve while PC demand slows
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Jun 2024

Geopolitics: President Biden is trying to push for a cease-fire and hostage release in Gaza in a three-stage agreement. The dilemma for Netanyahu remains acute as his far-right coalition partners have threatened to resign if the war ceases before Hamas is defeated. Gantz (National Unity party) is...

Zelensky in Singapore
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jun 2024

On June 1 the Ukrainian President addressed the Shangri La Dialogue Conference. He appealed to China to help end the war and ensure nuclear safety. Because China is by far Russia's biggest trading partner it has unique access. Russia was not invited to this conference. Zelensky met the Presidents...

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