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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2014

Vox Populi Confirms Previous Results The Vox Populi poll released yesterday, September 15, presents a scenario in which Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Marina Silva (PSB) are tied, the same scenario registered in last week’s polls.The president leads in the first round. The PSB candidate leads in the sec...

It's Been a Cold, Cold Winter
CHILE · Report · 16 Sep 2014

Executive Summary Pessimism in Chile is rising, with economists and business leaders increasingly blaming the government for the economic slowdown. Most analysts have lowered their growth estimates, as have the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. We, however, are far from agreeing w...

Donbas special status law – will it end the war?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Sep 2014

Today the parliament voted in law on special status of Donbas. With this law Ukraine approves Transnistria-style gray zone on its territory. From this law we do not have clear vision how relations will be organized but very likely Ukraine will pay some money from the budget for maintenance of the...

The German Forces against the Cárdenas-Maginot Line
COLOMBIA · Report · 15 Sep 2014

Executive Summary The test of the new governance layer that added Nestor Humberto Martínez as minister to the presidency will come sooner than expected: the proposed 2015 budget presents tough fiscal and political dilemmas. A crucial test will be defending the fiscal rule (a kind of fiscal Magino...

Political Insights: Week of September 15
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2014

This week promises to be very busy, with important events on the agenda.This Monday the deadline for replacing candidates expires.Thus, the “Return, Lula” movement loses relevance.Aécio Neves (PSDB) launches his government program and tries to create some kind of political momentum.The presidenti...

Alonso Segura is Peru’s New Finance Minister
PERU · Report · 15 Sep 2014

The New Minister After three years as Minister of Finance, Miguel Castilla resigned yesterday. He declared that he was leaving the ministry after five years (he was advisor and then vice-minister during the two last years of Alan Garcia’s administration) and was replaced by his chief advisor for ...

Activity: Far From a Sustained Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Sep 2014

The proxy for GDP estimated by the Central Bank (IBC-Br) for July rose by 1.5% in relation to June (Graph 1). This was an impressive result, leaving a carry-over of 0.3% to the third quarter. At first glance this might suggest an inflection point in the economic activity trend line. However, this...

Weekly Tracker: September 14-20
TURKEY · Report · 14 Sep 2014

Executive Summary The politics section starts with sketching the “Big Picture”, which predicts that Turkey will be stuck between two major conflicts and forced to choose sides at the expense of its diplomatic flexibility and economic expansion. We argue that unless Turkey fully cooperates, there ...

The legal issue on banking: status report
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Sep 2014

Fact: The government's legal initiative against domestic banks, regarding household loans, is moving ahead with full steam both in the courts and in further legislative work. Recent key events are the following: (1) Courts have issued first-instance rulings so far on 29 out of a total 79 cases in...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Sep 2014

CNI/Ibope Confirms Results of Other Polls The CNI/Ibope poll released today confirms what previous polls have shown: 1) Dilma leads in the first round; 2) Marina and Dilma are technically tied in the second round; and 3) Evaluations of the government have improved. Dilma’s improvement shown in th...

A Mountain of Discord
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 12 Sep 2014

Executive Summary After months of social mobilization, a heated national debate and hectic activity in the legislature, Congress passed a law declaring Miranda Hill a national park. Miranda Hill is a mountain in the central mountain range, and the origin of the country’s most important rivers. Th...

Difficulties on Inflation and Monetary Policy
INDIA · Report · 11 Sep 2014

Executive Summary It is widely believed that Governor Rajan is more hawkish on inflation. But the policy rate, expressed in real terms, is not higher in his first year when compared with the previous two years. Monetary policy must choose between inflation policy and exchange rate policy, and the...

How Might A China Slowdown Affect The World?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 11 Sep 2014

Executive Summary Recent statements by Li Keqiang, China’s Premier, suggest that lower GDP growth will not cause Beijing the kind of anxiety it has in the past, and that the leadership is willing to tolerate it as long as they believe unemployment is manageable. The market seems to be interpretin...

Congress Approved Debt Swap
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Sep 2014

Minutes ago the Lower House approved the bill to reopen de debt swap with 134 votes in favor and 99 against. In our last market brief “Damage Control”, we briefly discussed the government’s main objectives regarding the debt-swap-reopening initiative: i.e. to allow debt holders to swap out of US ...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2014

Dilma and Marina in Dead Heat The Datafolha poll showed that, at least so far, Dilma Rousseff’s (PT) attacks on Marina Silva (PSB) are working.In the first round, the impact is modest.In the second, it’s a little greater.Two weeks ago, Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Marina were tied (34%, each).Today, t...

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