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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Default it is, is it not?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

The fact that the Economic Minister, Axel Kiciloff, joined yesterday the Argentine negotiation team and that local banks declared that they are willing to make an offer to buy Holdout’s legal claims, suggested that the likelihood of a temporary agreement to reinstall the “stay order” until the en...

A Last-Ditch Attempt to Overturn the Elections
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s presidential win at first looked like a happy ending. The vote count was completed on July 22, and the General Election Commission pronounced him the winner. The president-elect then gave a victory speech from Sulawesi, from the deck of a traditional me...

Maduro Courts His Base
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Nicolás Maduro and his government are trying to control chavismo’s political levers to shape their own power structures and obtain support to carry out partial economic reforms. We don’t know whether he will succeed. The chavista base is unhappy. And the III PSUV Congress, conve...

Guatemala: Lackluster
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

Executive SummaryQ1 news wasn’t especially happy, though preliminary data delivered no real surprises. GDP growth was estimated at 3.4% y/y, at the lower end of Bank of Guatemala’s 3.3%-3.9% growth forecast for full year 2014. The current account deficit closed at $296 million, well above the $14...

Default It Is, Is It Not?
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

This Market Brief was originally issued on July 31, 2014 as a post on GSP Direct, the GlobalSource Partners interactive webtool providing clients an initial response to breaking news and developments. The fact that the Economic Minister, Axel Kiciloff, joined the Argentine negotiation team yester...

Parliament approves budget amendments, Yatsenyuk remains PM
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

Today parliament approved two important decisions. The first one was approval of budget amendments which are critical for further IMF cooperation. The second one – MPs declined Arseniy Yatsenyuk resignation. Against this backdrop, we can claim that recent political crisis was resolved. Important,...

Policy rates hiked
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

After holding policy rates steady since October 2012, the BSP today raised its overnight borrowing and lending rates by 25 bp to 3.75% and 5.75%, respectively. It explained the rate hike as a "preemptive move" to safeguard 2015 inflation which it forecasts to reach 3.7%, near the upper end of its...

GDP falls 4.7% y/y in 2Q 2014
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jul 2014

In 2Q 2014 Ukraine’s GDP declined 4.7% y/y State Statistics Office reported on July 30. Also the authorities estimated GDP sliding 5.9% y/y in June vs. 4.9% y/y in May. For the first half of the year GDP was estimated to fall 3.0% y/y, according to Minecon. By the end of the year the Cabinet anti...

Punishing Russia, without Triggering WWIII
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Despite all Ukraine’s difficulties, the latest the collapse of its ruling coalition, it looks as though the country is winning the war with Russia in terms of international community support. It’s a challenging conflict, and the renewed internal political fight in Kyiv doesn’t b...

Bringing State Investment Back to Normal
CHINA · Report · 28 Jul 2014

Executive Summary In June the government increased investment, and lowered the reserve requirement ratio for banks. Instantly, fiscal spending and the money supply rose. Though the real economy has not been affected (when taking the lagged effect into account), a future rebound is certainly po...

Current Account: Temporary Relief Due to the World Cup
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jul 2014

The balance of payments accumulated over the past 12 months in June showed the smallest deficit since September last year, -US$ 5.2 billion, a result a small dip in the current account deficit to US$ 81 billion and an increase in the surplus in the financial capital account to US$ 76 billion (Gra...

Monetary Policy on the High Wire
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jul 2014

There was a good deal of suspense regarding the minutes of the last COPOM meeting. Since inflation continues hovering near the top of the target interval and there are substantial repressed pressures both from the temporary stability of the real and delayed adjustments of administered prices, it ...

Political Insights: Week of July 28
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2014

The presidential race starts to gain space in the political agenda: The first event featuring the participation of the three main presidential candidates is scheduled for this week. The event is organized by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), and the candidates will discuss proposals f...

A good day for government
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jul 2014

1. The National Government turned in a whopping 50% increase in non-interest expenditures in June, bringing the 2Q14 total up 12% over 2Q13. This is very encouraging in terms of our 2Q14 economic growth outlook. Also announced today, the President approved rehabilitation plans for areas affected ...

Clearer Waters Rising
CHILE · Report · 25 Jul 2014

Executive Summary It is fair to say that the winds are starting to blow in the direction of a recovery in coming quarters. The wide agreement around the main points of the tax reform is good news. But, at the same time, it is hard to agree with some economists that claim that they are beginnin...

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