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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Default or Not Default
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 06 Jul 2014

Executive Summary This report presents two scenarios: a first scenario in which an agreement with the holdouts is reached avoiding a new default; and a worst-case scenario without agreement and default. Needless to say, in the default scenario we expect macroeconomic instability to increase signi...

Terrorists left Sloviansk, activists report
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Jul 2014

Activists report that separatists left Sloviansk, the town which was the strongest point of resistance at the region. Terrorists made the step after Sloviansk was totally taken into circle by Ukrainian army. If this information is true, it is a very good news witnessing substantial progress in mi...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jul 2014

Datafolha: World Cup Improves the Mood of Voters, but Dilma Still Faces Challenges The Datafolha Institute released a new poll yesterday (7/3), conducted on July 1-2, which shows increased intended votes for President Dilma Rousseff (PT).Compared to the June poll, Dilma gained 4 percentage points...

June Inflation: Food Prices Disappoint
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2014

June (CPI) inflation came in at a higher than expected 0.3%, compared with the consensus forecast of a flat reading and our more optimistic forecast of a slight drop in the monthly rate. Inflation still eased, i.e. it has indeed peaked, but less so than expected, to 9.2% from 9.7% in May. PPI inf...

Costa Rica: Fear of Floating
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Jul 2014

Executive SummaryThe Central Bank is changing its way of intervening in the FX market. Though it has not modified the parameters of its band, the new administration has embarked upon a more active intervention policy, keeping the exchange rate below 560 colones per dollar. The Bank is also changi...

The Exchange Rate as an Instrument to Control Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jul 2014

Executive Summary The Central Bank has been using interventions in the future foreign exchange market as an instrument to control inflation. With the ongoing deceleration of economic growth while inflation hovers near the top of the target interval, Brazil is experiencing a form of stagflation...

June inflation worse than expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jul 2014

Today's June inflation print disappointed, coming in at 0.3% worse than the consensus expectation of a flat reading -- and our somewhat more optimistic forecast of a slightly negative reading. But the culprit, as far as our forecast is concerned, is food prices: we expected, in line with seasonal...

Glimmers of Recovery, Amid Public Distrust
MEXICO · Report · 02 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Recent economic news was mixed, and in some cases surprising. One of the most encouraging reports was the April GDP proxy, which showed an unexpected 1.2% m/m activity increase, and a rise of 2.9% from April 2013. This latter result was the most positive in 16 months. We expect ...

GDP Growth in Q1
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Jul 2014

The Colombian economy is off to a good start this year as GDP expanded by 6.4% in Q1 (Graph 1), the highest growth rate since 2011. Most analysts – ourselves included – have had to revise their forecasts upwards. The main driver of growth was construction, contributing 1.5 pp to total GDP growth....

Gradual Convergence
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Tensions within chavismo on the eve of the III PSUV Congress are surfacing against a backdrop of widespread social discontent owing to economic hardship. One poll finds that household sentiment is at its lowest since 2003. With Giordani’s exit and signs of a reformist movement w...

Political Insights: Week of July 1
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2014

This Monday is the deadline for political parties to determine their candidates and alliances for the October elections.Aécio Neves will announce his running mate.The candidates will be registered on Saturday.Electoral advertising (radio and TV) will begin on Sunday.A new Datafolha poll on the pr...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2014

The Vice Presidential Candidates Senator and presidential candidate Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG) has confirmed that Senator Aloysio Nunes Ferreira (PSDB-SP) will be the vice presidential candidate on his ticket.Thus, the PSDB will head into the October elections with a “purebred” coalition – one in whic...

Increasing Signs of Recovery amidst Government-Business Disconnect
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Economic news published this past month was decidedly mixed and in a number of cases proved surprising. One of the most encouraging pieces of evidence was the monthly GDP proxy for April, which revealed, after adjusting for seasonal factors and calendar effects, an unexpected se...

Relay Race For SA Labor Demands
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Jul 2014

Barely a week after the end of a prolonged (five-month) industrial action in the platinum industry, a new strike, this time in the metals industry, has just gotten underway. More than 200,000 workers affiliated with the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) embarked today on an “...

Unconstitutional
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jul 2014

The Supreme Court today declared President Aquino's Disbursement Acceleration Fund (DAP) "partially" unconstitutional. The DAP is a mechanism adopted by the administration to boost economic growth by using unspent funds in the budget for other priority needs within the year. These funds amounted ...

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