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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inaction Speaks Louder than Words
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2014

Executive Summary The two dialogue processes that began in April are stuck. The government has made clear that it doesn’t intend to make a single concession to the opposition and that its promises to the business sector are mere words. The government has no incentive to make meaningful political ...

Fending Off the Aggressor
UKRAINE · Report · 27 May 2014

Executive Summary Criminal violence is exploding throughout Eastern Ukraine, while the economy sinks further into the red. Yet positive developments under the surface lead us to take an optimistic outlook. Ukrainian society is sick, and the road to recovery will be hard. But at least the patient ...

Political Insights: Week of May 27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 May 2014

Several important events are expected this week.The STF rules on the case that questions savings account losses during economic plans of the late 80s and early 90s.The Central Bank makes its interest rate decision.Minister of Finance Guido Mantega meets with industry representatives to discuss pa...

2014 Economic Performance Off To A Bad Start
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 May 2014

According to official figures released by Statistics South Africa, the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.6% on a quarter-on-quarter (q/q), seasonally adjusted annualized (saa) basis in the first quarter of 2014 (see Graph 1). Anemic mining and manufacturing activity was ...

PAN Seeks Road to Recovery
MEXICO · Report · 27 May 2014

Executive Summary Gravely worn down under the weight of its first 12 years in power, the National Action Party saw its extended process of internal decomposition greatly aggravated by its defeat in the 2012 elections. The setback also intensified the internal division that opened up in 2010 betwe...

Housing at a Crossroads
MEXICO · Report · 27 May 2014

Executive Summary Data on first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was the most significant item in a week chock full of major economic indicators. According to the report, the Mexican economy grew 1.8% above year earlier levels, a figure closely in line with our own estimate of 1.7%. The facto...

Understanding the Paradox of the Labor Market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 May 2014

There is a contrast in the Brazilian labor market: on the one hand, the unemployment rate has been holding steady at minimum historic levels, indicating a situation near full employment, while on the other hand new hiring has been growing at a pace near zero, indicating weakening. Indeed, the job...

Our Worst Fears Confirmed
ECUADOR · In Brief · 26 May 2014

This weekend President Correa announced his decision to give green light to the initiative promoted by legislators from Alianza Pais of amending the constitution to allow "indefinite re-election" for all elected public representatives. His arguments were based on what he perceives as a an "eviden...

Zuluaga takes 1st place in first round. There will be a run-off on June 15th
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 25 May 2014

With more than 99% of the votes accounted for, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga captured 29.27% of the votes, while President Santos came in second, with 25.63%. This means, of course, there will be a run-off election on June 15th, three weeks from now. Abstention exceeded 60%. Martha Lucía Ramírez, from the C...

Exit-Polls: Poroshenko Wins in First Round. Tough Work on Civil Control is Ahead.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 May 2014

Petro Poroshenko gets 55.9% in first round according to the National Exit-Poll. Real results might differ but we already know the name of fifth Ukrainian president. The good news is that after inauguration more decisive actions at the eastern Ukraine could be launched. The bad news is that Petro ...

Weekly Tracker: May 25-31
TURKEY · Report · 25 May 2014

Executive Summary It is not official but Erdogan’s speech in Cologne suggests he is serious about Presidency. The opposition is yet to find a match for him, but we still don’t concede victory to Erdogan. The death of yet another Alevite Turk at the hands of the police during week and the sudden e...

Elections: Poroshenko Might Win in First Round. ‘Cleaning’ East, New Parliament Elections and Real Decentralization are the First Steps Ukrainians Demand
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 May 2014

The main intrigue of president elections 2014 – whether Petro Poroshenko wins in first round or he needs second round to get his prize. Surveys (mid-May) in one voice give him the victory in this way or another and it is very unlikely that the final result will be too much different. It is not th...

It’s Getting Chilly
CHILE · Report · 23 May 2014

Executive Summary The perspectives for the economy in the short term are not catastrophic, but neither very encouraging. Investment has sharply decelerated, consumption growth is moderating, the labor market is deteriorating and inflation has increased. But record-low real interest rates, stro...

Squelching and Environmental Referendum
ECUADOR · Report · 23 May 2014

Executive Summary This year hasn’t started off well, for either the govenrment or its citizens. The government was stung by its party’s lackluster victories in local elections, and for the first time in seven years must cope with dwindling funds. And citizens concerned about the evironmmental eff...

Showcasing the Philippines
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 May 2014

This week, the Philippines hosted this year's World Economic Forum for East Asia to much fanfare and self-congratulating back patting. The event could not have come at a better time with the country boasting of a 7.2% GDP growth last year, "next only to China", and the S&P just the other week vou...

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