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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political Insights: Week of July 28
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2014

The presidential race starts to gain space in the political agenda: The first event featuring the participation of the three main presidential candidates is scheduled for this week. The event is organized by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), and the candidates will discuss proposals f...

A good day for government
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jul 2014

1. The National Government turned in a whopping 50% increase in non-interest expenditures in June, bringing the 2Q14 total up 12% over 2Q13. This is very encouraging in terms of our 2Q14 economic growth outlook. Also announced today, the President approved rehabilitation plans for areas affected ...

Clearer Waters Rising
CHILE · Report · 25 Jul 2014

Executive Summary It is fair to say that the winds are starting to blow in the direction of a recovery in coming quarters. The wide agreement around the main points of the tax reform is good news. But, at the same time, it is hard to agree with some economists that claim that they are beginnin...

Yatsenyuk refuses to be acting Prime Minister, Volodymyr Groysman takes the lead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jul 2014

According to the law the Cabinet after resignation continues its work as acting Cabinet till the moment the parliament approves the decision and appoints new Prime Minister. Under current circumstances Arseniy Yatsenyuk refused to continue his work and Volodymyr Groysman, Deputy Prime Minister fo...

Singing Bob Marley in Ankara
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jul 2014

Don't worry about a thing,'Cause every little thing gonna be alright.Rise up this mornin',Smiled with the risin' sun,Three little birdsPitch by my doorstepSingin' sweet songsOf melodies pure and true,Saying', "This is my message to you"…Governor Basci presented the third Inflation Report of the y...

Yatsenyuk Resigns on Failed Attempt to Increase Taxes for Oligarchs
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Jul 2014

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk resigned after coalition was dissolved. This move in light of tense situation at the east might look strange. But only from the first glance. Few days ago after the IMF mission left Kyiv the Cabinet came out with the proposal of budget revision. And the main role ...

Governor Basci as dovish as ever...
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2014

Governor Basci presented the third Inflation Report of the year today in Ankara. The yearend inflation estimate (midpoint of a 70% band) was kept at 7.6%, as we expected, while the Bank – as it always does but never gets it right – see inflation decelerating to 5% by the end of 2015. A most notab...

President, Legislator, Judge - And Now Banker
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Jul 2014

Executive Summary The long-awaited free trade agreement with the European Union materialized last week, after Minister of External Commerce Francisco Ribadeneira successfully concluded the last round of negotiations in Europe.Though the deal could take 18 months to come into force, it looks certa...

Making Good on Telco Reform
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jul 2014

Executive Summary A Law on Telecommunications and Broadcasting and another on the Mexican State’s Public Broadcasting System were recently passed during a special session of the Mexican Congress, and President Enrique Peña Nieto signed both into law on July 14. With the enactment of these seconda...

Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2014

Ibope Presents A Stable Scenario And A Dilma Victory In The Second Round The most recent Ibope poll (July 18-21) on the presidential race and evaluations of the government presented the following information: 1) we still do not know if there will be a second round; 2) unlike the scenarios present...

Presidential Election: Dramatic Ending on The Election.
INDONESIA · In Brief · 22 Jul 2014

The Indonesian Presidential Election was finally completed with the election of Joko (Jokowi) Widodo and Jusuf Kalla as President and Vice President Elect of 2014 – 2019. That decision was announced by the Indonesian Election Commission on the July 22, 2014 evening in Jakarta. Jokowi – JK, as the...

Final Leg of Energy Reform Debate
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jul 2014

Executive Summary The long road to approving secondary laws related to the energy sector has now entered its final stretch. But given that of all the Pact for Mexico structural reforms this is by far the one most crucial to the future of the economy, and the one on which the administration of Pre...

New Evidence of Decelerating Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Jul 2014

The proxy for GDP computed by the Central Bank (IBC-Br) brought more evidence that Brazil’s economic growth is decelerating. With the decline of 0.2% in May, the carry over to the second quarter is -0.1%, and in light of all the signs of further weakening in June, the most probable outcome is tha...

Political Insights: Week of July 21
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jul 2014

With the Congressional recess and the end of the World Cup and BRICS Summit, the presidential race will be the focus of the agenda.A new Ibope poll is eagerly expected, since Datafolha and Sensus show a technical tie between Dilma Roussef (PT) and Aécio Neves (PSDB) in an eventual second round. D...

Bounded Power and Modest Reforms
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 21 Jul 2014

Executive Summary This report extends our forecast horizon to 2016. Our previous outlook expected Maduro’s administration to carry out limited actions and reforms in 2014 that would help the economy begin to recover from stagflation some time in 2015. Instead, government inaction and poor executi...

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