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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Radical Ideology, Pragmatic Implementation
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jan 2014

In his first annual message to the National Assembly on 15 January 2014, President Nicolas Maduro confirmed the government’s intervention strategy "no matter what happens” (sic) emphasizing on controls on prices and foreign exchange transactions. Shortly after, Jorge Arreaza, Executive Vicepresid...

Real Retail Sales: Latest Data
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jan 2014

Real retail sales expanded in November. In the restricted sense (without cars and building materials), the increase was 0.7%, while in the augmented concept growth was 1.3% (Graph 1). The 12-month rates were 7.0% and 5.7%, respectively. Given the carry-over of 2.5% in augmented sales, even with t...

New allegations of corruption by Erdogan & Son rocks the markets
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Jan 2014

The war between AKP and the Gulen movement is escalating by the minute. Today, a third wave of arrest warrants centering on the AKP-held Beyoglu municipality of Istanbul were not carried out by police chiefs. AKP took the hatchet to the judiciary rotating more than 30 judges and prosecutors belie...

Time for Political Definition
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 16 Jan 2014

Executive Summary GDP growth in Q4 2013 will reach 3.3%, leading to annual GDP growth of 3.1% for 2013. The relatively low growth rate will result in an increase of half a percentage point in the rate of unemployment, thus reaching 15.4%. As of December 2013, the year-to-year inflation rate remai...

Is it ‘the first shot’ of civil war?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jan 2014

It finally happened. The ruling group approved the law which might legalize Ukraine as totalitarian regime. After almost two months of active mass-protests the authorities put all protesting actions beyond the law. Today MPs voted in the law which: (a) imposes fees or imprisonment terms for unaut...

Maduro's address will be at at 4:00PM (Caracas time)
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Jan 2014

As per the National Assembly Secretariat's announcement.

Coming Soon: Greater Instability
ARGENTINA · Report · 15 Jan 2014

Executive SummaryArgentina is experiencing a typical inflation–devaluation spiral. The government’s fiscal deficit has climbed to 4% of GDP. Monetary issuance to close the gap explains 2013’s 32% expansion of the money base, though net monetary expansion was 22% for the year, due to the contracti...

Breaking Bad
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The collapse of the symbiotic partnership between Turkey’s two powerful Islamist groups means that political stability is most likely impaired at least until the local elections, with uncertain prospects thereafter. A significantly higher political risk premium is very bad news ...

Modulating Expectations
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jan 2014

Executive Summary Last week President Enrique Peña Nieto signed into law the constitutional reforms affecting the financial sector. The government expects these changes to encourage competition in the financial services industry and to increase the amount of credit issued by development banks as ...

Heads Up
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 14 Jan 2014

Tomorrow, 15 January 2014, President Nicolás Maduro will present the Annual Presidential Message to the the National Assembly. He has offered to take this opportunity to make "special" announcements. Maduro might announce some of the measures that markets expect, particularly on foreign exchange ...

Next Phase of Reform
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The first major challenge and the central theme of the 2014 political agenda will involve passing secondary legislation necessary for implementation of the major structural reforms approved last year, and then instrumenting those changes. In that regard, 2014 promises to be a mo...

Fiscal Policy: On a Deteriorating Path
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The primary surplus projections in the financial market are below the target, and the distance between the expected surplus and the target is widening. The government “fulfilled the commitment to the target” in 2013 only due to non-recurring revenues, which amounted to 0.9% o...

Power Price Spike
PHILIPPINES · Report · 13 Jan 2014

One aspect of the 4.1% December inflation rate announced last week that was expected, yet at the same time surprising, was the increase in electricity prices. It was in part expected because the month-long (November 11 to December 10) maintenance of the Malampaya platform, which supplies natural ...

Informal Inflation Target Was Not Attained
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jan 2014

In 2013 the Central Bank failed to meet the informal target of lower inflation than in 2012. In reality, without the government’s abusive use of price control measures, inflation for the year would have been above the upper limit of the target interval (6.5%). This was the fourth straight year th...

Political Insights: Week of January 13
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jan 2014

President Dilma Rousseff will meet with party leaders to discuss changes to her ministerial team, which should occur in the coming weeks. Another important topic on the political agenda is the sanction of the Union Budget, with a deadline that expires next week. The Central Bank will hold its fir...

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