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States and Municipalities Add to the Fiscal Expansion
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jun 2013

The weak economic growth and expansionary fiscal policy that have raised the risks of dangerous growth of the public debt were responsible for the change in the Brazilian outlook from stable to negative by S&P. In addition to the decline in the primary surplus of the central government, which was...

Change Course?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryConcern over inflation has led the Central Bank to signal a more intense monetary tightening cycle is in store, with the yield curve last week indicating the cycle might end with the SELIC rate at 9.25%. The high inflation is being driven by the steep increase in absorption in pr...

What to look for in the new week
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2013

What to look for in the new week:   Gul has until Tuesday 5 pm to decide what to do with the bill restricting alcohol sales and consumption.   Erdogan declared war on banks and speculators who caused the collapse in the stock market last week.  BRSA or capital Markets Board could initiate probes ...

Weekly Tracker: June 9-15
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jun 2013

Executive Summary This weekly has been written in the manner of a strategy piece, focusing on the political, economic and market implications of ongoing Gezi Parki protests, together with potential spillovers from the region. In addition, we took a quick look at the key data releases of the week:...

Ready, Set, Go!
PANAMA · Report · 08 Jun 2013

All the Cards are on the Table: Governing Party has a chosen OneAccording to the two main polls in Panama, Ditcher & Neira and IPSOS, as of May 2013, there has been a significant change in the political scenario; however, both polls reflect such change in a somewhat different perspective. Accordi...

Weekend preview
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2013

A very critical day in Gezi Parkı protests.  First Gul ought to decide what to do with the law on restricting alcohol sales. A veto would go a long way to soothe secularist tensions. Secondly, AKP is convening its administrative body to decide how to respond to demonstrations. Finally, we will be...

S&P Changes Brazil’s Outlook from Stable to Negative
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jun 2013

S&P announced a change in Brazil's outlook from stable to negative. The decision was based on the fact that, in the absence of corrective measures, the weak GDP growth combined with a continually expansionary fiscal policy (including off-budget measures) generates the risk of weakening the countr...

Tackling the Collapse of Growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 07 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryOne of the lowest rates in 10 years, Q1 growth came in far below expectations at just 0.3% y/y. Nearly every field shrank: local manufacturing, construction, commerce, hotels, bars and restaurants, and energy and water. The collapse was the result of falling domestic demand, both...

Knockout
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Jun 2013

Vladislav Surkov's resignation was a tough hit for Dmitry Medvedev significantly decreasing his effectiveness as the Prime Minister. An authoritative mastermind of the national political system, he remained efficient and influential even outside the Presidential Administration and was responsible...

IOF on Capital Flows to the Fixed-Income Market Removed
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Jun 2013

The Finance Ministry announced the elimination of the IOF (Tax on Financial Operations) on investments from abroad in the fixed-income market. The IOF rate had been raised from 2% to 4% on October 4, 2010, and then to 6% on October 18, 2010, staying there until today. The decision did not come...

Update: No respite from Gezi Park demonstrations
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2013

Turkey is going through an extraordinary upheaval of-- so far-- peaceful nature. Organized and galvanized by social media, the "modernist" face of Turkey is on the streets. Even though some steps by AKP reveal a softening of attitude, there is no sign that the party is ready to abandon any of its...

Industrial Production
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Jun 2013

After accounting for seasonal factors, industrial output rose 1.8% in April, or 8.4% in relation to the same month in 2012 (Graph 1). There were substantial increases in vehicles (8.2%); machinery and equipment (7.9%); and foods (4,8%), and the result for the month was very diffused, covering a l...

Balancing Act
MEXICO · Report · 04 Jun 2013

Last week, President Enrique Peña Nieto called for a national accord to promote productivity. According to government data, productivity is off by 0.7% compared to a year earlier. The president announced that he had ordered the creation of a consultative body, the National Committee on Productivi...

Two-Camp Political Reform
MEXICO · Report · 04 Jun 2013

The Pact for Mexico's trajectory and legislative calendar were effectively re-written by the National Action Party (PAN) decision to denounce in April illegal efforts by federal and state officials to buy votes and sustain a clandestine election campaign system. The initial result was an addendum...

May Inflation: April, Replayed
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2013

In May, consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 0.15%, versus market expectations of around 0.4%, thanks to a somewhat deeper drop in food prices and a softer increase in transportation prices (Table 1). But because of last year's low base, the 12-month CPI inflation nevertheless edged up t...

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