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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Guide for December 8
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Dec 2013

What’s at stake? Chavismo currently controls 85 % of the municipalities in the country (284 out of 335). In all likelihood, it will continue controlling a significant majority of municipalities after December 8. In our view, three indicators will be used to measure success in the upcoming electio...

Industrial Production: Positive Result, But Not a Clear Recovery Trend
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2013

Industrial output has been extremely volatile for several months, so much so that it even appears in the 12-month rates, which by construction should behave more smoothly (Graph 1). For this reason, the short-term numbers only provide imprecise information on the trend. The data in Graph 1 show a...

GDP: Another Frustrating Result...
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2013

The frustrating GDP growth in the third quarter – worse than the median of market forecasts – requires us not only to revise the projection for GDP growth in 2013, but also for 2014. The third-quarter result has made it virtually impossible to reach our previous projection of 2.5% growth in 2013....

Mean Reversion Reigns
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2013

After a few bad prints of late, CPI inflation surprised favorably today, which is not that unusual historically, given the mean reverting nature of the gap between actual and forecasted inflation (Graph 1).The surprise, in turn, as it is also often the case, was driven by food prices to a large e...

New Inklings of Growth
MEXICO · Report · 03 Dec 2013

Executive SummaryThe economic data released last month mainly corresponded to September and October, and for the most part was negative. Consumer confidence slumped significantly in September (3.3 index points lower than August’s reading), and in October (2.9 points below that of September). The ...

RSA Secures its Place among the “Fragile Five”
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Dec 2013

According to a set of figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank, the current account deficit has remained in excess of 5% of GDP since 2012 (see Graph 1). This – coupled with a shortfall in the government balance as well as anemic growth – suggests that South Africa has secured its...

RSA Secures its Place Among the “Fragile Five”
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 03 Dec 2013

According to a set of figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank, the current account deficit has remained in excess of 5 per cent of the gross domestic product since 2012. This – coupled with a shortfall in the government balance as well as anemic growth – suggests that South Afric...

Much Confusion About The Energy Deal With Iraqi Kurds
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Dec 2013

Baghdad must have received solid intelligence that Ankara and Erbil did ink a broad oil and gas cooperation agreement, because it closed the airspace over Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkish flights. Energy Minister Taner Yilmaz was dispatched to Bagdad first to patch things up with his counterpart Mr. Sa...

Political Insights: Week of December 2
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2013

A full economic agenda this week:On Tuesday, IBGE releases revised GDP results for 2012 and economic performance figures for Q3. On Thursday, the Central Bank releases the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. On Friday, IBGE releases November’s IPCA. In the House o...

What Can Be Expected From Fiscal Policy?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Dec 2013

Participants in the financial market have long known that at the moment the rating agencies change a country’s risk rating, the risk premiums remain virtually unchanged. Therefore, from the standpoint of their reflection on asset prices, changes in countries’ ratings are “non-events”. The reason ...

Glimmers of Recovery
INDIA · Forecast · 02 Dec 2013

Executive SummaryWe see signs of recovery after the downturn that started in 2010. Q3 data signaled improvements in output, investment and business confidence. Conditions may improve further in Q4, as the damage to Q3 growth caused by defense of the rupee recedes, and as the expansionary impact o...

Boring Race, Known Outcome
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Dec 2013

Executive Summary The most important new political development is, of course, the news that President Juan Manuel Santos will run for president in 2014. The organizational apparatus is already in place, with Germán Vargas-Lleras and Juan Mesa in Fundación Buen Gobierno; Roberto Prieto returning f...

Surprise Tightening
INDONESIA · Report · 02 Dec 2013

Executive Summary As many predicted, GDP growth softened further in Q3, confirming the recent declining trend. Growth was 5.62%, and 5.83% for first nine months of the year. But the balance of payments improved mildly, with the current account deficit shrinking to 3.8% of GDP from 4.4%. Still, t...

On the Brink of Civil Confrontation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Dec 2013

The events of last weekend shocked everyone.  On the morning of November 30 riot police attacked protesters at Maidan Square and brutally beaten the people, who were guarding the camp.  Shocking videos and photos flooded media and social nets.  It appeared that for this action the authorities bro...

A Long, Cold Winter?
TURKEY · Report · 01 Dec 2013

According to recent polls, AKP is firmly ahead in the March local election races. We bet it will keep Istanbul and Ankara, as well as most of the large cities. Yet, for PM Erdogan’s presidential campaign, the party needs to surpass 50%, which is likely to be missed.The unexpected declaration of w...

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