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Sowing Seeds of Future Discontent
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2013

Executive Summary The demonstrations that held the Mexican capital in their grip for the better part of the past two months have finally died down, but for reasons that could contribute to future strife. The government wielded the proverbial political stick in mid September to drive public school...

Has the Central Bank Increased its Degrees of Freedom?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Oct 2013

At the COPOM meeting last week the Central Bank decided to raise the SELIC rate by 50 basis points, to 9.50%. This move had already been widely expected by the market, but the repetition of basically the same communiqué as issued after the previous meetings that were followed by 50-point increase...

In Janet, We Trust
TURKEY · Forecast · 13 Oct 2013

Executive SummaryAfter a difficult and volatile summer, Turkish assets were among the best beneficiaries of the tapering delays and the nomination of Janet Yellen to head the Federal Reserve, but viewing this respite as permanent, would be a mistake, in our view. With almost all the low-hanging f...

Private Sector Likely to Cushion Investment Fall
PANAMA · Forecast · 11 Oct 2013

Executive SummaryThe domestic economy is likely to have less impact on growth from 2013-2015, mainly due to the end of the government’s major investment plan, and the completion of Panama Canal expansion. But execution of major private investments in mining, energy, tourism, logistics and low and...

Exports up by 20.2% in August
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Oct 2013

August exports posted the highest growth rate so far for 2013 with a recorded uptick of 20.2% year-on-year, which amounted to $4.581 billion. This follows the June and July positive growth numbers of 4% and 2%, respectively. Nevertheless, the year to date growth was still down by 0.83 percent due...

The Cleaning of Downturns
INDIA · In Brief · 09 Oct 2013

There is universal gloom in India today about economic conditions. This perspective is flawed in two ways.First, every market economy experiences business cycle fluctuations. Trend growth is roughly 7%. When we get 10% growth in an expansion, we should not conclude that trend growth has gone up t...

IPCA: End of a Benign Period
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Oct 2013

In September the IPCA rose 0.35%, greater than the increase of the IPCA-15 for that month (0.27%). With this, inflation over the preceding 12 months accumulated a variation of 5.86% (Graph 1). The IPCA for September should mark the end of a cycle of about four months of relatively benign monthly ...

MTP 2014-16: Cozy But Unlikely
TURKEY · Report · 09 Oct 2013

The authorities’ Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2014-16 was announced yesterday. The revisions made to the three main macro aggregates and our quick thoughts on them are summarized below. Table 1 below provides the key macro indicators for the current and previous MTPs, while annex tables (1-4) pr...

On Rafael Ramirez's Appointment
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 08 Oct 2013 · 2 responses

Rafael Ramírez replaces Nelson Merentes as Vicepresident for the Economic Area (Decree No. 457, Official Gazette No. 40,266 , 7 October 2013). Merentes will probably soon leave the Ministry of Finance and take an official position abroad. His departure materializes his failure to liberalize the e...

MTP 2014-16: And Then, a Miracle Happens…
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2013

The Medium-Term Program for 2014-16 was announced today, somewhat earlier than expected.  The government revised down the growth rate for this year to 3.6% and for the next year to 4%, from previous MTP’s 4% and 5%, respectively.  Inflation is forecasted to end the year at 6.8%, vs. the 5.3% in t...

Budget Deficit Target for 2014: 2.8% of GDP; USD 1.5 bn in Sovereign Bonds; GDP Growth: 4.5%
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 08 Oct 2013

In compliance with the Constitutional deadline, last week the Executive presented to Congress the budget bill for 2014.  The proposed budget sets a deficit target equivalent to 2.8% of GDP, a level similar to that for 2013. Although no one was expecting a drastic reduction in primary spending giv...

SA Political Economy Dilemmas - October 2013
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 08 Oct 2013

The IMF Article IV puts the “cat amongst the pigeons” in South Africa’s highly charged political economy environment.  Over the past year or so, South Africa’s labour unions have raised the political and ideological temperature substantially. A blend of binding factors has been at play. Declining...

Government Spending: Back to 2011?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Oct 2013

The Finance Department reported today that government non-interest expenditures grew 7.4% in August, significantly down from 30% the previous month and double-digit growth rates since April.  While we would like to see more data points before drawing a definitive conclusion, this slowdown may sig...

Passing a Point of Inflection
MEXICO · Report · 08 Oct 2013

Economic Panorama Last week we discussed the factors that have most contributed to the way in which the Mexican economy began to get bogged down during the first half of the year. In this edition we turn our attention to updated indicators – such as Mexico’s monthly GDP proxy (Index of Global Eco...

Democratization Package update: Don’t Expect More, but Less
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2013

I’m asked by a lot of readers whether the recently unveiled Reform or Democratization Package heralds the return of the “pragmatic, reformist” AKP.  The answer is unfortunately NO.  In fact instead of adding to the gains by supplemental initiatives addressing the groups neglected in the first pac...

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