GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Average daily cases almost doubled in a week, from 7.7K to 14.2K for the week ending Sunday (Graph 1). Testing did not keep pace, and in fact declined for the week, resulting in an increase in the positivity rate to 6.4% (Graph 2). The rise in cases is not surprising, given that Turkey is a touri...

Beijing is worried about debt, but more worried about slowing growth

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 26 Jul 2021 · 1 response

• GDP growth in the second quarter continues to slow, but not by as much as many analysts seemed to think. • While I continue to expect China’s reported GDP growth for the year to be between 6 percent and 8 percent, I am starting to believe that it will be much closer to 8 percent than to 6 pe...

Bolsonaro announced changes to his ministerial team, he has promised to present evidence of electoral fraud in the 2014 presidential election and he has 15 days to sanction the LDO once he receives it

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jul 2021

Sen. Ciro Nogueira will replace General Luiz Eduardo Ramos as Chief of Staff, General Ramos will replace Onyx Lorenzoni in the General Secretariat of the Presidency, and Lorenzoni will become the Minster of Employment and Social Security. Bolsonaro supports the paper ballot PEC. A few truckers’ o...

Signs of some growth moderation in recent months

ISRAEL · Report · 26 Jul 2021

1. Recent indicators point to some “normal” deceleration as growth returns to a more sustainable pace. 2. Nevertheless, hi-tech service exports continue to surge, supportive of a strong CA surplus and shekel appreciation. 3. The second half of June witnessed strong employment growth i...

Essential CIS Politics: July 2021

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 26 Jul 2021

*The summit between Putin and Biden went well, which pleased the stock market. *Coronavirus is rising in Russia, necessitating restrictions in Moscow and some other regions. *Tajikistan is worried as the Taliban are moving up to their border. *Russia claimed to have fired warning shots a...

We expect the MNB to tighten further tomorrow

HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2021 · 1 response

Last week, we said in our quarterly forecast that we expect the MNB to tighten further at their July 27 rate-setting meeting, either by raising the base rate by another 15 bps to 1.05% or by announcing some material specifics on cutting back QE policies, or maybe both at the same time. Now that t...

The CBR pulls the key rate higher, but is likely to stay on hold going forward

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2021

The Russian Central bank raised its key rate by 100 bps to 6.5%, i.e., to the level of the current y-o-y inflation. Annualized 3M or 6M moving average, however, is much higher. Though, it will come down fast in 4Q21. The CBR referred to elevated inflationary expectations, identified its monetary ...

Russia sends aid to Cuba

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2021

On July 24 Russia sent two Antonov 124 cargo planes containing 88 tons of humanitarian aid to Cuba. There are demonstrations in Cuba due to economic hardship. The aid dispatched by Moscow includes comestibles, PPE and over a million medical masks.The USA recently imposed even stricter sanctions o...

Life after Eid al Ahda

TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2021

Even though GSP Turkey team is officially on holiday, I thought it is important to share significant political developments during the Eid al Ahda holiday with our readership.In addition, soaring Covid-19 cases and a devastating drought could lead to downside revisions in economic forecasts. Fina...

Russia raises rate by the highest amount since 2014

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jul 2021

On July 23 the Russian Central Bank raised the key interest rate by 1%. The aim is to contain inflation. The rate is now 6.5%, which is where it was before coronavirus. The RUB rose a little on the news. A rise in the key rate was generally anticipated. It had been trailed in the media earlier in...

Venezuela and the Pandemic

VENEZUELA · Report · 23 Jul 2021

According to official data, since the second Covid-19 wave began at the end of March, the number of daily new cases has averaged 1,200, with no signs of slowing down and without the Delta variant having officially entered Venezuela. Cases are bound to rise, and quarantines will be more strictly ...

Russia brags about unbeatable weapons

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jul 2021

On July 11 Russia showed its new Sukhoi jet. The warplane can hit six targets simultaneously. It is Russia's answer to the F-35. The Sukhoi jet was shown at Russia's biennial airshow. The jet was developed in 2020. Its development was unusually fast. The manufacturers are Rostec and the United Ai...

Delta watch

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jul 2021

Over two months after detecting the Delta variant of the coronavirus in two returning overseas workers, the Department of Health (DoH) yesterday confirmed that there has been local transmission of what the World Health Organization described as the “most able and fastest and fittest of those viru...

Government’s relationship with Congress should improve with the ministerial changes, the Electoral Fund caused tension between Bolsonaro and Dep. Ramos, and Minister Braga Netto’s statement regarding paper ballots was criticized

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2021

Senator Ciro Nogueira will become the first senator in a ministerial position and should facilitate dialogue between the government and the Senate. Despite Deputy Ramos’s threats to review the impeachment requests against Bolsonaro, he will likely not follow through. Congress is considering summo...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait downgraded, phone hacking scandal, MBZ visits MBS

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Jul 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * After dipping following Sunday’s OPEC+ deal, oil has recovered back to last week’s level (Brent $73). * The UAE and Saudi crown princes met in Riyadh to signal their ongoing alliance despite differences. * There were emba...