GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

According to the government, Bolsonaro is not actually planning on changing the Bolsa Familia program through a constitutional amendment. Ciro Nogueira’s entry into the government should improve its relationship with Congress and especially the Senate. The broader tax reform PEC in the Senate is ...

Economics: Inflation pressures continue to mount

MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2021

Last week’s inflation results for the first half of July showed 12-month consumer inflation at 5.75%, with its core component lagging the headline rate at 4.64%, while non core inflation surged ahead once again at 9.24%. The core component was led higher by a roughly 6% increase in food prices, w...

China’s education crackdown – How far will this go?

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Jul 2021

The new regulatory crackdown on the educational sector in China was a surprising move by China. New Oriental Education’s shares plunged 17.5% on the news. What really is a shock is how small the companies are in this sector – EDU has a market cap of just $6.6 billion. What is going on and how far...

Economic recovery in times of political uncertainty

CHILE · Report · 27 Jul 2021

After falling for two consecutive months, in May the monthly variation of the seasonally-adjusted IMACEC was 2.6%, its largest since September 2020. The economy completely reversed the negative shocks of March and April. The detail by sectors shows diverging movements, underscoring the relevance ...

MNB: Long-term collateralised loans to banks discontinued from today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jul 2021

MNB vice governor Virág has just spoken on the Bank's YouTube channel. His main points were:- Today's 30 bps base rate increase implies that the 1-week deposit rate will go up by the same amount, i.e. the whole of the rate hike will be made effective. - From today, the MNB is not extending any mo...

Bolsonaro meets with Ciro Nogueira to discuss his role as Chief of Staff, the Pandemic CPI has a busy schedule for next week and the rapporteur of the income tax bill is considering including a tax exemption for companies earing less that R$ 4.8 million

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2021

Ciro Nogueira’s appointment is facing some resistance from Congress and the government. Bolsonaro has reiterated the Centrão’s important role in passing bills. Dep. Luiz Miranda provides a testimony to the Federal Police on the corruption scheme involving the purchase of the Covaxin vaccines. Mem...

Growth may be slower

CHINA · Report · 27 Jul 2021

The Chinese economy has been stably rising in Q2. GDP was up 7.9% y/y, and up 11.4% from Q2 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 5.5%, up 0.5 pps from Q1. Industrial output was up 8.9% y/y, and up 13.7% from Q2 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 6.6% y/y, slightly lower than in Q1 but hig...

MNB raised the base rate and both sides of the interest rate corridor by 30 bps today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jul 2021

The base rate thus went to 1.2%, and the corridor remains +/- 95 bps around this level. This is a bit more than expected (15-30 bps) by the market, and it is in conformity with the MNB's three-month old commitment to a distinct tightening trend and to a front-loaded approach. The key point must b...

What to expect from the last year of Duterte’s presidency

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Jul 2021

Towards the end of his rambling, close to three-hour State of the Nation Address (SONA) yesterday, President Rodrigo Duterte listed several priority bills that he wanted congress to pass in the final year of his presidency. The proposals were unsurprising and included the three bills to open the ...

2021–2022 Forecast: Slow Recovery

VENEZUELA · Forecast · 27 Jul 2021

With only five percent of Venezuelans fully vaccinated, the country has seen no relief from its rapid daily rate of new Covid-19 cases since the end of March. Non-adherence and lax enforcement of quarantines are allowing retail trade and manufacturing to begin to open up. Groundwork is being laid...

Politics: Pegasus scandal reveals massive espionage in Mexico with no legislative control

MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2021

Worldwide, Mexico is the country with the highest level of espionage with Pegasus spyware. The international scandal that broke this past week therefore has had major repercussions in the country since a whopping 30% of all the intercepted communications worldwide -15,000 telephones- correspond t...

Strike at oil transport company in Kazakhstan

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jul 2021

On July 18 a strike started in Zhanozen, Kazakhstan. The company that strikers work for is Kazpromtekh. The company provides transport to a small oil company called Ozenmunaigaz. The strike involves street cleaners, driver and loaders.One small company in Zhanozen gave in to the strikers. This is...

Minister of economy designates the course: fiscal and monetary expansion are defined as priority as well as protectionist measures

UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Jul 2021

There is one thing I can hardly pass by. Yesterday Vice-Prime Minister and Minister of economy Oleksiy Lyubchenko published a series of articles (in different media, see the links https://cutt.ly/RQtKuzc, https://cutt.ly/mQtNYrt) describing his economic views and also outlining the course for Ukr...

Two Warning Signs Last Week: Inflation and Exchange Rate

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jul 2021

Last week, the IPCA-15 data for July and the volatility of the Real emitted two clear warning signs. The increase of 0.72% of the IPCA-15, higher than the consensus projection of 0.65%, was the first alert. Although the diffusion index dipped below its annualized quarterly rate, it was 70%, with ...

New reforms in the government and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jul 2021

President Jair Bolsonaro will swear in new ministers: Sen. Ciro Nogueira is the new Chief of Staff; Luiz Eduardo Ramos will go to the General Secretariat; and Onyx Lorenzoni will head the new Ministry of Employment and Social Security. Bolsonaro promises to present evidence of electoral fraud in ...