GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Since (belatedly) starting the monetary tightening cycle, the Central Bank has been revealing greater concern over economic recovery than growth of inflation. Even with the steady increase of the diffusion index and all the core rates, after three increases of 75 basis points the SELIC rate was s...

Turkey Covid Watch - August 9, 2021

TURKEY · Report · 09 Aug 2021

After several weeks of rapid increase, case growth seems to be slowing, giving rise to hope that the virus is facing immunity within the population against the prevailing variant. The latter may not yet be the Delta variant, however, as the absence of data is hampering rigorous analysis. Inequali...

Banks to benefit from decelerating inflation amid rising interest rates

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2021

According to Rosstat, m-o-m inflation reached in July 0.31%, which was a bit lower than in July 2020 (0.35%). Inflation y-o-y moved to 6.46% in July, which is a bit lower than a month ago. A few days earlier, Rosstat published its flash estimate of the consumer price change for seven days ending ...

A busy week in Congress: the bill on income tax, electoral reform and the paper ballot system may be put to a vote this week, and Dep. Ricardo Barros testifies in the Pandemic CPI

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Aug 2021

The paper ballot PEC may be taken to the plenary for a vote if there is an agreement between leaders. The Senate receives the bill that allows for the privatization of the Correios following its approval in the House. The government may submit to Congress the PEC on the court-ordered payments iss...

Politics: Low turnout for popular consultation, a setback for AMLO

MEXICO · Report · 09 Aug 2021

Mexico’s first experience with an officially held popular consultation was marked by very low voter turnout on August 1. Promoted by President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador and Morena, the question that was initially to be put to voters was whether the past six presidents should be investigated and...

South Africa’s economy amid unrest, Cabinet changes and a mining sector boom

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 09 Aug 2021

South Africa’s growth: South Africa’s economy, which is once again being adversely impacted by another round of more stringent lockdowns on account of the third wave of Covid-19 infections, encountered another setback in July. This was in the form of the civil unrest that took place at the beginn...

FX intervention slows as the economy recovers

ISRAEL · Report · 09 Aug 2021

1. The fiscal deficit declined sharply in July to 9.3% of GDP (LTM) from 10.1% last month. 2. The Bank of Israel reduced FX intervention sharply in July, possibly due to the economic recovery. 3. Disposable income growth remains modest, and fairly much in line with productivity growth.

Expect CPI-inflation to fall below 5% in July, mainly on a favourable base effect

HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2021

KSH is set to release its July CPI-inflation report early tomorrow. The median analyst expectation (by Portfolio.hu) is 4.7% yoy, down from 5.3% in June and 5.1% yoy in the preceding two months. We expect 4.9% yoy. The analyst median implies 0.5% monthly inflation, our forecast comes from 0.7% mo...

Belarusian Olympic athlete given asylum in Poland

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2021

On August 1 Krystina Timanovskaya, a female athlete, publicly denounced her coaches in Tokyo. She was then ordered to return to Belarus immediately. She was granted asylum by the Polish Embassy and put on a flight to Poland. Two coaches who told her to leave the Olympics lost their accreditation ...

Russia makes more than USD 300 million in vaccine sales

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2021

On August 4 a news website (RBC) published data from the Ministry of Trade. In the first five months of 2021 Russia sold over USD 300 million. This figure includes non-coronavirus vaccines. In the first months of 2020 it was USD 10 million worth of vaccines sold abroad. Millions of doses of Sputn...

Wildfire Damage, Political Fallout and CBRT MPC preview

TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2021

Turkey’s wildfires tapered off, thanks to cooler weather, but the menace is still with us, as 12 fires in 5 provinces are still in progress. I focus on economic damage to start with, but there is little to change my previous assessment. So far, I received concrete information that reported damage...

FX intervention slows as the economy recovers

ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Aug 2021

The fiscal deficit continues to contract, reaching 9.3% GDP LTM In July, the deficit reached 0.8bn ILS compared to 12bn in July 2020. Tax revenues in Jan-July are up 14% compared to Jan-July 2019. Non-Covid expenditures are up 3.4% and Covid supports have declined. We expect a deficit of close to...

Industry continued to lead the recovery in June

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2021

The first report on important Q2 data has been released. It is about industrial output, which fell by 0.3% mom but rose by 18.5% yoy in June. In the first place, this means that output stood at 4.8% higher in real terms than in June 2019, which we use as a meaningful pre-Covid base.Second, the Ju...

Russian economic growth slows

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2021

The Chairman of the Accounts Chamber said on August 5 that the economy will not grow more than 2%. He noted that the economy is still too heavily dependent on hydrocarbon exports. Diversification is too slow. The Chairman of the Accounts Chamber wants an investment economy and said that with that...

American investor in Russia convicted of fraud

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Aug 2021

Michael Calvey was found guilty on August 5. The case has transfixed the financial sector since his arrest in February 2019. He was found to have purposely issued bad loans worth USD 34 million in an acquisition deal for a Russian bank in 2015. Calvey was given a 5.5 year suspended sentence.The c...