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On August 10 Lukashenka hit out at the US and UK after they imposed yet more sanctions on Belarus. On August 8 there were large scale anti-Lukashenka marches in Ukraine. Belarusian oppositionists have often fled to Ukraine.On August 3 a Belarussian oppositionist Vital Shyshou was found hanged fro...

Betting on a return to normality, with the Delta variant so far nowhere in sight

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 11 Aug 2021

With the decrease in the number of COVID-19 infections, the rise in the number of vaccinated people and amid strong public pressure, the government has been gradually lifting mobility restrictions. Authorities have indicated that so far the Delta variant is not circulating in the country. But wi...

The federal budget surplus widens in July prompting expenditures to be amended

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2021

The federal budget surplus reached R890 bn in 7M21 after in July it accounted for over R115 bn. In 7M21, the government spent nearly R12.8 trln, i.e., 69.3% of the formally approved annual target (R21.5 trln), implying no delays in allocating the budgetary funds. In July alone, the government spe...

The House rejected the paper ballot PEC, the income tax bill should be put to a vote today, and the Political Reform proposal should be put to a vote on Thursday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2021

There were 229 votes in favor and 218 votes against the paper ballot PEC, and the bill needed at least 308 votes in order to be approved. However, this vote shows that the government still has a considerable amount of influence in the House, as there were more votes in favor of the bill than agai...

Taliban take the Afghan border with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2021

On August 10 Moscow announced that the Taliban now control the frontier. 2,500 Russian troops are concluding an exercise with the Tajik and Uzbek armies. The explicit aim of the exercise was to prepare for counter terrorist operations. Man-portable air defense systems were deployed in the drill. ...

SAUDI: Deficit narrows sharply and the economic recovery continues

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Aug 2021 · 1 response

* The deficit narrowed to -0.6% of GDP in Q2, and we forecast -1.1% for 2021 overall. * Higher oil prices or greater remittance of sovereign wealth returns could even generate a surplus. * Real GDP grew by 1.5% y/y in Q2, and we forecast 2.3% for 2021 as a whole.

The Russian current account strengthens in July

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Aug 2021

The CBR released its preliminary estimate of the main elements of the 7M21 current account surplus, which appeared very strong. The current account surplus reached $51.7 bn in 7M21 and increased by $8.6 bn in July as according to the 1H21 balance of payments statistics, it was $43.1 bn during tha...

The government should submit the court-ordered payments PEC to Congress this week, the paper ballot PEC should be put to a vote today and the TSE submitted a criminal report against Bolsonaro

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2021

Bolsonaro submitted the new Bolsa Família provisional measure to Congress yesterday. The text did not provide for a new rate, but he has said that it will be at least 50% higher than the current rate. Arthur Lira has said that he may postpone the voting of the paper ballot PEC due to the Navy’s p...

Russian and China in joint military drills

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Aug 2021

On August 9 the two countries commenced joint exercises. The Russian Defense Ministry told them that they were doing this because of rising tensions with the USA. Over 10 000 troops are participating in Zapad Interaction 2021. This 5 day drill is being held in the Ningxia Hui Region of China. Rus...

July CPI-inflation came out slightly below expectation

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2021

The headline rate was 0.5% mom, 4.6% yoy, just slightly below the 4.7% yoy median of analyst forecasts (Portfolio.hu survey) and more significantly below our own 4.9% yoy forecast. The better than expected performance came from non-fuel items, where the monthly price increase fell to 3.8% yoy fro...

Campaign season spending propels inflation

VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Aug 2021

In July, the rate of inflation doubled to 18 percent from its June 9 percent. We had forecast only 11 percent, having failed to give due weight to the PSUV primary elections. Campaigning sparked increases in public expenditure, which in turn boosted the demand for dollars. The central bank reacte...

2Q GDP slips sequentially due to lockdown

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Aug 2021

Government reported today that 2Q GDP shrank 1.3% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter (qoq) basis. The losses reflect tighter restrictions to activity that were imposed starting late March following an unexpected outbreak in covid-19 infections and were only gradually relaxed over May and...

Israeli institutions continue to sell FX

ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Aug 2021

Israeli institutions continue to sell FX In June, Israeli savings institutions (managing over 450bn USD) were net sellers of FX of 3.9bn USD and 16bn YTD. In June, institutions sold assets abroad of 1.1bn and increased their FX hedge position by 2.8bn. Higher equity market valuations abroad have ...

Economics: Pemex results deliver mixed figures but bad news in general

MEXICO · Report · 09 Aug 2021

Pemex’s financial results for the second quarter of 2021 partially benefited from a very low comparison base given that the first wave of Covid 19 infections during the second quarter of 2020 seriously affected demand and prices for hydrocarbon value-chain products, and this came together with Me...

Proposal for the privatization of the Correios and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Aug 2021

The government may submit the court-ordered payments Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) and the Bolsa Família provisional measure to Congress. The House will try to vote on the income tax bill and the leaders should discuss the paper ballot PEC. The New Refis will be analyzed in the House. T...