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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

New forecast: a lot to change in 2022-2023
HUNGARY · Forecast · 26 Jan 2022

The summary of our new forecast for the next two years is as follows: continuing but less lethal Covid, high growth and high inflation fueled by extremely generous election campaign policies this year, a safe Fidesz win in April, forceful fiscal stabilization from H2, followed by moderating growt...

President of Armenia resigns
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2022

On January 23 Armen Sarkisian resigned in a shock move. The presidency is a mainly symbolic office. Sarkisian expressed his frustration that he was not able to do more, especially considering the difficulties his country has been through 2020.The 69-year-old had openly criticized Prime Minister P...

Omicron watch (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Jan 2022

Data tracking the latest Covid-19 wave in the country show that new infections have started to drop, particularly in Metro Manila. Samples sequenced by the Philippine Genome Center in January traced almost all the cases to the Omicron variant. Although infections may have peaked in the nation’s c...

The MNB sent out a strong message, raised the base rate above expectation today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jan 2022

The Monetary Council raised the base rate by 50 bps, to 2.9% today, more than the 30 bps hike expected by the broad analyst consensus. Simultaneously, the interest rate corridor was also adjusted upwards by 50 bps, to 2.9-4.9%, creating further room to increase the 1-week deposit rate from the cu...

The PEC on Fuels may be submitted to Congress this week, deputies discuss overturning Bolsonaro’s vetoes on the Federal Budget, and the PT caucus in the House tries to attack Sergio Moro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jan 2022

The PEC on Fuels would allow federal taxes and the ICMS tax on fuel to be reduced or even zeroed. The proposal would have an impact of R$ 27 billion on the tax collection of states and municipalities. Truck drivers may put pressure on the government and Congress to find a solution for the high pr...

Will the opposition learn from its Barinas victory?
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Jan 2022

The election of opposition member Sergio Garrido as governor of the state of Barinas on January 9 showed the opposition how powerful unity candidates can be, how efficacious local leaders can be, and how important it is at the regional level to build alliances perhaps not feasible on a national s...

Essential CIS Politics: January 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 25 Jan 2022

* Talks between Russia and the US over Ukraine did not end in agreement. * The US warned that Russia is preparing a false flag attack in Ukraine to provide an excuse for an invasion. Russia denies this. * Kazakhstan experienced huge scale disorder that resulted in at least 48...

Russian markets battered by Western war talk
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jan 2022

Since January 1 Russian companies have lost over USD 160 billion in value on the stock market. The RUB has slid to 80 to the USD. That is the RUB's lowest in years. Already high inflation has risen rapidly. The threat of severe Western sanctions has spooked the market.There is no doubt that Russi...

​Wiki- CHP
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jan 2022

In our last Weekly, Yours Truly wrote an essay on internal criticism of the opposition Nation Alliance. While there are several shortcomings of the Alliance which is still a work in progress, lack of a common economic policy platform is the most glaring. While a six-party committee is currently w...

Notes from the frontline: what the Russia tension looks like from Kyiv
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jan 2022

It looks like a potential Russian offensive is creating more nervousness in Western media than here in Ukraine. For Ukrainians a Russian invasion already started eight years ago and further attempts to occupy more territories of Ukraine or install a puppet regime by force have been just a matter ...

Dusting off output gap calculations
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Jan 2022

There is no guarantee that an economy with excess capacity will grow. Leaving aside 2020, Argentina has not systematically grown over the last 10 years, despite significant excess capacity. But the currently estimated output gap of approximately 20-24%, in combination with rising commodity prices...

Economics: Lower GDP forecast as sectoral activity is likely to remain below pre-pandemic levels
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jan 2022

Following up on last week’s analysis of aggregate demand components that have been decelerating in recent months and factors that might impede their expansion in the current year, we are turning our attention to the recent performance of the Mexican economy’s main sectors and are introducing our ...

Political uncertainties in the presidential election and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jan 2022

This is the last week of recess in the National Congress, which returns to work on February 2. Left-wing parties discuss the formation of a party federation in support of former President Lula's (PT) candidacy for the Planalto Palace. Two new voting intention polls on the upcoming elections will ...

Global Inflation – Control and Consequences
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jan 2022

There are no more doubts: the current global inflation does not derive from a series of independent shocks, whose effects will disappear without the need for actions by the central banks. And the rupture of supply chains is only a small part of the problem, whose main cause is the monetary stimul...

Russian macro: the 2022 budget to be amended as revenues soar
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jan 2022

In contrast to the planned deficit, the federal budget posted a surplus of around R0.5 trln, (i.e., below 0.4% of GDP) in 2021 amid soaring revenues, and the 2022 budget is already in question once again. The 2021 budget remained in surplus despite the fact that expenditures have been raised sign...

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