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Economics: Rising inflation and mounting risks heading into 2022
MEXICO · Report · 13 Dec 2021

Consumer inflation continued to accelerate in November by climbing 7.37%, the highest reading in more than 20 years as a series of risks pose the threat of a price spiral in the year to come. Clearly this is part of a much broader global phenomenon, but there are specific risks in Mexico that rai...

Recession and High Interest Rates in an Election Year
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Dec 2021

With the fiscal anchor destroyed by the Precatórios PEC, and inflation closing 2021 above 10%, the Central Bank will have to maintain monetary policy in restrictive territory for the foreseeable future. The SELIC rate at the start of 2021 was 2% and will end at 9.25%, with further increases assur...

The last week of work in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2021

This may be the last week of congressional activity this year. The goal in Congress is to vote on the Federal Budget by Friday, December 17, and start recess early; it would typically start on December 23. The Precatórios PEC is one of the main items on the agenda. The TCU may adjudicate Eletrobr...

The Federal budget surplus exceeded R2.3 trln in 11M21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budget surplus exceeded R 2.3 trln amid strong revenue collection and rather moderate spending in November. In 11M total revenues exceeded the initial annual plan by 19.6% as oil-and-gas revenues exceeded the annual target by 36.6%. Non-oil-and-gas r...

​OFZ: Russian institutional investors have reduced positions in 3Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2021

CBR has published data on OFZ holdings by local institutional investors following as of end of 3Q21. For the first time in a year, they reduced positions in government bonds (-R51 bln in nominal terms in June-September). Pension funds have cut investments by R48 bln, and insurance companies --- b...

Economic expectations exceeded
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 13 Dec 2021

The capacity for rapid recovery of the Dominican economy was reaffirmed in the final stretch of 2021, with y/y growth of 12.4% in January-October 2021. Higher economic growth, greater-than-expected tax revenues and containment of spending have led to a drastic reduction in the nonfinancial public...

Pyrrhic victory
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Dec 2021

Venezuela is about to exit the hyperinflation cycle it entered in November 2017. This year will close with inflation near 556 percent, one quarter of the 2,463-percent pace seen one year ago. It’s a Pyrrhic victory whose heavy toll negates any true sense of achievement and damages long-term progr...

The House is scheduled to vote on the Precatórios PEC on Tuesday, the Senate CAE holds confirmation hearings for official appointments on Tuesday, and the STF goes into recess on Friday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2021

Since the Precatórios PEC was modified by the senators, it needs to be re-analyzed by the deputies. The parts that were changed in the Senate will be added to a PEC that is ready for a vote in the plenary of the House. As this will be a different PEC, the Senate will have to vote on it again. The...

Rapid decline in fiscal deficit improves fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Dec 2021

Highlights: The fiscal deficit declines sharply * In November, the fiscal deficit declined to 4.6% GDP LTM from 5.5%. * Tax revenues are up 24% y/y this year while non-Covid spending is up only 2.3%. We expect a low fiscal deficit of 2.7% in 2022. FX: The shekel appreciated by 1....

Rapid decline in fiscal deficit improves fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Dec 2021

The fiscal deficit declines sharply In November, the fiscal deficit declined to 4.6% GDP LTM from 5.5%. Tax revenues are up 24% y/y this year while non-Covid spending is up only 2.3%. We expect a low fiscal deficit of 2.7% in 2022. FX: The shekel appreciated by 1.7% last week against the basket. ...

G7 threatens severe sanctions if Russia does not withdraw troops from Ukrainian border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2021

On December 11 the group of the 7 most industrialized nations issued a statement from Liverpool, UK. They called for Russia to resume diplomacy. The G7 comprises the US, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the EU. It used to be the G8 until Russia was expelled over Crimea in 2014. T...

What a fine mess we are in
TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2021 · 1 response

In two recent briefs (A First Take On An Unprecedented Experiment, November 21, 2021, and This Time Is Different, November 28), we have laid out our thoughts on Ankara’s so-called New Economic Model, and speculated on a few near-term scenarios -- namely, the “good” (it works), the “most likely” (...

Russian awarded Nobel Peace Prize
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2021

On December 10 Dmitry Muratov was awarded the prize in Oslo, Norway. He is the third Russian to be awarded the prize. He is editor-in-chief of Novaya Gazeta newspaper. The newspaper is fiercely independent and often critical of the government. Several Novaya Gazeta journalists have been killed ov...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE shifts its weekend, MBS completes his Gulf tour, Qatar releases budget
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Dec 2021

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There were hints of progress in Iran nuclear talks today, although the US is upping the pressure. * MBS completed his tour of the Gulf in Kuwait today. The most visible immediate outcome of the tour were agreements signed...

The Auxílio Brasil program is expected to begin issuing payments today, the Senate approved the extension of the payroll tax exemption, and the House continues to analyze the Precatórios PEC
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Dec 2021

The Auxílio Brasil payments of R$ 400 may have a positive effect on the government’s ratings. The latest poll shows that negative ratings dropped by 3%, positive ratings remained stable and the regular rating increased by 4%. The approved payroll tax exemption bill will now go for presidential sa...

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