GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

As Rosstat reported that inflation reached in August 6.68% y-o-y and 0.17% m-o-m, while there were no signs of deflation in early September (for the period from September 1 to 6 Rosstat reported 0.06% inflation), the CBR will most likely raise its key rate tomorrow by 25-50 bps.Even though a stro...

El Salvador: On bitcoins and presidential re-election

CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 08 Sep 2021 · 1 response

On bitcoinsOn Tuesday El Salvador adopted bitcoins as a legal tender currency. Daily transactions such as buying groceries or paying taxes can now be made using bitcoins through a digital wallet called “Chivo” (local slang for "cool"). President Bukele confirmed that on Monday the government purc...

Higher costs of borrowing cooling down consumer demand

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Sep 2021

The CBR released statistics on averaged weighted consumer credit interest rates for July. Unsurprisingly they appeared higher than in the previous months. Changes in interest rates varied across segments. Car loans saw the most visible increase in costs of debt servicing. In July, the average int...

An unsurprising rise by yoy CPI-inflation surprisingly surprised analysts

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Sep 2021

We apologise for this somewhat complicated title, but this was really weird a bit. As reported earlier today, the headline rate of CPI-inflation rose back to 4.9% yoy in August from 4.6% yoy in July. Portfolio.hu's analyst 'consensus' (in fact the median expectation) was 4.7% yoy, so yes, analyst...

SA GDP surprises on the upside in the third quarter, but the outlook warrants cautious optimism

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Sep 2021

Statistics South Africa’s (StatsSA) recently rebased South Africa gross domestic product (GDP) has resulted in upward revisions of the country’s 2020 GDP (at current prices) by 11%, to R5.52 trillion (previously R4.97 trillion). This leaves the annual growth rate for 2020 at -6.4% from -7%. The ...

Jair Bolsonaro said he would no longer respect Min. de Moraes’s decisions, the Senate cancelled all legislative activity for the week, and the STF resumes the adjudication of the case dealing with the demarcation of indigenous lands

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2021

Jurists are saying that if Bolsonaro does not comply with the decisions of the Court, it could constitute a criminal act and could result in the opening of impeachment proceedings against him. The House may vote on the Electoral Reform proposal today. The most controversial measure is the five-ye...

A reasonable-looking compromise decision on the debt moratorium

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Sep 2021

According to a so far officially unannounced report by the local daily Világgazdaság, which we give much credit to, as it sounds rather realistic, the government cabinet have made its decision on the existing moratorium on local bank debts, which is set to expire, according to current regulation,...

Demonstrations on September 7 maintain a climate of institutional tension

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2021

The demonstrations in support of President Jair Bolsonaro, held yesterday, September 7, in important state capitals of the country, were significant. The biggest protests occurred in São Paulo (SP), Rio de Janeiro (RJ) and Brasília (DF). The large amount of protestors shows that the President sti...

Economics: Labor market gaps remain despite signs of recovery in formal and informal jobs

MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2021 · 1 response

After data for the first quarter of 2021 showed job losses year over year, a recovery began during the second quarter. The main reading of formal employment in Mexico – the number of workers actively enrolled with the Mexican Social Security Institute or IMSS – had broken slightly back below pre ...

Politics: A small but crucial cabinet shakeup highlights possible governability issues

MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2021

In recent days President López Obrador replaced Minister of the Interior Olga Sánchez Cordero while also accepting the resignation of Julio Scherer Ibarra, the man who had served not only as presidential legal counsel but also as a de facto interior minister while also assuming many of the key ta...

Kazkahstan strikes

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Sep 2021

There have been large scale strikes across the country in summer 2021. The government is nervous as the 10th anniversary of the strikes in December 2011 at Zhanozen, Kazakhstan, approaches. At that time, the police shot 100 unarmed demonstrators, at least 14 of whom died. The strikes this year ha...

GDP in the Second Quarter and Growth in 2022

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Sep 2021

The contraction of 0.1% in GDP for the second quarter of 2021 has left a carry-over of 4.9%, meaning that modest recovery in the third and fourth quarters should lead to yearly growth near our projection of 5.2%. However, the outlook for 2022 is very different. It is already possible to envision ...

Inflation surprise

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Sep 2021

The headline inflation rate unexpectedly shot up to 4.9% in August, the upper limit of the BSP’s inflation forecast for the month and higher than the 4.4% median forecast by analysts. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices rose 0.6% month-on-month, largely reflecting production shortfalls in fish...

Watching the recovery - September 2021

INDIA · Report · 07 Sep 2021

High frequency data shows that the recovery from the bottom of Wave 2 is progressing better than the recovery from the lockdown of March/April 2020. If present trends continue, we will be back to the pre-Wave-2 conditions (i.e., Jan/Feb 2021) within a month or two. There is a striking gap between...

Difficulties in the Senate and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Sep 2021

Expectations are high this week due to the demonstrations in favor of the government today, September 7. The holiday will reduce legislative activity. The Income Tax bill should be sent to the Senate. In the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the focus will be on the case that deals with the demarcatio...