GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

After seven weeks in government, the new president has proven difficult to read. Pedro Castillo’s indecisiveness may be explained by his being caught in the crossfire between his own supporters and the opposition parties in Congress. Castillo has so far kept a low profile: he has delivered only o...

A further 15 bps rate hike from the MNB today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Sep 2021

The Monetary Council held its September rate-setting meeting today. They also discussed the Q3 inflation report. A summary of the decisions and of vice president Virág's online commentary follows here.The Bank sees inflationary risks still pointing upwards. For the rest of 2021, they expect the h...

The Administrative Reform proposal and the court-ordered payments PEC should see progress in the House, the BR do Mar bill should be put to a vote in the Senate committee, and Wagner Rosário should testify in the Pandemic CPI

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2021

The rapporteur for the Administrative Reform proposal, Deputy Arthur Maia (DEM-BA), should submit a new text on the changes to be voted on this week. The Special Committee is expected to vote on the text on Wednesday or Thursday. Arthur Lira, Rodrigo Pacheco and Paulo Guedes should meet today to ...

Opposition discord and its consequences

VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Sep 2021

With only two months remaining before election day, the opposition has failed not only to finish choosing all its candidates but also to practice consistent messaging as to whether it will even take part in elections. Moreover, it is neglecting the task of readying itself to be able to detect, do...

Politics: AMLO’s social budget priorities and what they really mean for low-income households

MEXICO · Report · 20 Sep 2021

Where an administration chooses to allocate funding can provide a fairly reliable idea of that government’s real priorities, and a review of the 2022 spending budget reaffirms the priority President Andrés Manuel López Obrador assigns to social spending, especially when it comes to funding the pr...

Economics: Pros and cons in the government’s 2022 revenue and spending plans

MEXICO · Report · 20 Sep 2021

In our follow up to last week’s initial review of the López Obrador Administration’s 2022 budget package we delve deeper into its revenue and spending bills, which further confirm our earlier conclusion that the 2022 budget package suffers from many of the same weaknesses as its three predecessor...

Request for the payroll tax exemption bill and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Sep 2021

This week, an agreement may be reached on the court-ordered payments Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). The Administrative Reform Committee may vote on Dep. Arthur Maia’s (DEM-BA) report. The House will analyze the urgent status request for the payroll tax exemption bill. In the Senate, the...

Turkey Covid Watch - September 20, 2021

TURKEY · Report · 20 Sep 2021

Cases rose substantially over the past two weeks, and should be expected to rise further, with schools having reopened. While the risk is there, we don’t expect new lockdowns in our baseline scenario, as it seems that Turkey, as several other countries, has entered a “new normal” of living with t...

Mapping the Path Ahead

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Sep 2021

THE MONETARY POLICY MAP – Next Wednesday, the COPOM will probably raise the SELIC rate by 100 basis points. After many fits and starts and confusing signs, the Bank’s president finally recognized that it will do “whatever it takes” to bring inflation back to the target. All the signals given so f...

The court-ordered payments PEC, the Administrative Reform PEC and the payroll tax exemption bill should be put to a vote, the rapporteur of the Pandemic CPI should submit his final report

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Sep 2021

Arthur Lira would like to speed up the processing time for the court-ordered payments PEC. The proposal was approved in the CCJ last week. Dep. Arthur Maia should submit a new report on the Administrative Reform PEC. The proposal should be put to a vote in the Special Committee this week. The Sen...

A formal breakup of the ruling coalition was avoided. But at what cost?

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 20 Sep 2021

On September 20, at 4 pm BA time, President Alberto Fernandez (AF)accepted the oaths of office of the new ministers who emerged after the abrasive negotiations he held with the Kirchnerists, and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) in particular.Both sides had to give in regarding their initial e...

Now comes the hard part

TURKEY · Report · 19 Sep 2021

After the summer pause, Turkey’s diplomatic agenda is slowly coming to fore. President Erdogan’s visit to NYC to address the UN General Assembly is largely symbolic. Afterwards, he shall head to Sochi to convince Putin to cut him some slack in Idlib Syria. He may fail to persuade him and face...

Gas price rise means bonanza for Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Sep 2021

As world gas prices rise this means that Russian companies such as Gazprom will reap a reward. The price hikes also redouble the argument for Nord Stream 2. Spot prices for natural gas in Europe were up 20% at one stage on September 15. Gas is a vital energy source for homes and industry. Prices ...

GULF WEEKLY: Iran avoids IAEA censure, splits open in Kuwait opposition, Bahrain tourism begins recovery

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Sep 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Iran avoided a censure at the IAEA and appointed a hardline deputy foreign minister who may lead nuclear talks. * The Saudi Q2 GDP beat its flash estimate, growing by 1.8% y/y, including 8.4% for the non-oil sector. * A d...

Webinar Replay: Rethinking Ecuador: Is now the time?

ECUADOR · Report · 17 Sep 2021

Visit our calendar page to watch Magdalena Barreiro discuss how a new IMF program, higher commodities prices, and a centrist president appear to have Ecuador positioned for a comeback, and the risks and opportunities in the country’s current macro and political environment.