GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

China’s leadership is promoting the concept of delinking debt from government obligations. Two recent examples are the high profile debt workouts for property developer Evergrande and asset management company Huarong, which have raised questions about the Chinese government’s support for the corp...

GDP growth likely to reach 7% this year; CA surplus remains robust, housing supply remains depressed relative to demand

ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2021

GDP growth in Q221 was revised to 16.6% (from 15.4%), as private consumption expanded by 39.2% (revised from 36.3%), investments expanded by 13.2% (from 9.7%) and exports by 19.8% (previously 18.1%). We expect GDP growth to reach 7% this year, fueled by strong hi-tech exports and strong private c...

More FX-denominated bonds and reverse FX swaps

HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Sep 2021

The market saw a Monday unusually rich with government and central bank measures, to which some extra explanation might be useful.First, the ÁKK revised its annual financing plan, raising its FX-denominated bond issuance target by a large amount, to EUR4.5bn from EUR1.8bn. At the same time, they ...

Politics: What we can expect from the current Congress

MEXICO · Report · 13 Sep 2021

Now that the first ordinary session of the 65th Legislature is underway we are starting to get more of an idea of what we can expect from lawmakers in the next three years, and it spells a tougher road ahead for President López Obrador throughout the final half of his administration. His Morena p...

Fighting Inflation, Fiscal Risk and Tepid Growth

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 13 Sep 2021

With GDP for the second quarter now known, and all signs indicating that the economy is recovering, we project growth for 2021 of 5.2%. Assuming the water crisis does not lead to electricity rationing, our projection for growth in 2022 is 1.2%, meaning expansion of only 0.7 percentage point above...

Economics: Fiscal sustainability doubts to extend through the current administration

MEXICO · Report · 13 Sep 2021

The 2022 budget package the López Obrador administration sent Congress last week suffers from many of the same weaknesses as its 2021 predecessor. Once again, it is overly optimistic in some of its macroeconomic assumptions, and for its revenue and expenditure projections it neglects to point out...

SAUDI: Q2 GDP beats flash estimate but reveals some sectoral weaknesses

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Sep 2021

Q2 GDP growth of 1.8% y/y was stronger than the flash estimate but the non-oil private sector contracted by -0.5% SA q/q, dragged down by transport and trade & hospitality, whereas the flash had estimated that there would be q/q non-oil growth. Covid trends and restrictions largely explain the se...

Electoral Reform in its decisive day and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2021

The government's economic agenda will be put to the test this week. The court-ordered payments PEC will be put to a vote in the Constitution and Justice Committee of the House. The Special Committee on Administrative Reform will vote on the rapporteur's report. In the Senate, the Economic Affairs...

Dark clouds coming from the Assembly

ECUADOR · Report · 13 Sep 2021 · 1 response

The political sky looks mostly blue after the first 100 days of President Guillermo Lasso’s government. His popularity has hit record highs at 75%, and the government celebrated its 100th day with over nine million Ecuadorians vaccinated, placing Ecuador as Number One in the world in vaccines app...

The government’s legislative agenda put to the test this week, jurists to present a large report on possible crimes Jair Bolsonaro committed during the pandemic, and the STF continues analyzing the case of the demarcation of indigenous lands

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2021

The House and its committees will discuss the Administrative Reform proposal, the court-ordered payments PEC and the Electoral Code Reform proposal. The Economic Affairs Committee of the Senate may vote on the BR do Mar bill. Also in the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco may reject the provisional measure ...

Primaries suggest a defeat of the government in November

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Sep 2021

As of this writing, with more than 98% of the votes scrutinized in most provinces, including the City of Buenos Aires, and almost 97% in the Province of Buenos Aires, the results of the primary elections are final enough to conclude that the ruling coalition, Frente de Todos (FdT), suffered a con...

Delta watch 6 (A new experiment 2)

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Sep 2021

After canceling at the last minute its decision to relax quarantine restrictions in Metro Manila last week, government announced over the weekend that it will proceed with the new system of granular lockdowns beginning September 16. The new system does away with the confusing alphabet soup of qua...

The Israel private sector purchases FX, despite CA surplus

ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Sep 2021

The private sector purchases FXIn Q2, the Israeli private sector were net buyers of 3.5bn USD compared to net sellers of 4.8bn in Q1. Despite the fact that Israel enjoys a large CA surplus, not all revenues from exports reach the FX spot market (but rather are kept as FX for future investments), ...

OMAN: IMF forecasts fiscal surpluses from 2022 and sharp declines in debt

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 12 Sep 2021

The IMF completed an Article IV mission to Oman in early July and its Executive Board concluded the consultation today with a statement and publication of the full Article IV Report for the first time. This is a quick assessment and we may provide further updates after digging through more of the...

Despacito

VENEZUELA · In Brief · 12 Sep 2021

Upon conclusion of the second round of talks in Mexico City on September 6, the Maduro government and the Venezuelan Unitary Platform delegations issued a joint communiqué reporting the first two partial agreements and setting the agenda for the next round, scheduled for September 24-27. The meet...