GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

As the oil price has climbed close to $80/bbl, and it cannot be ruled out that the upward trend will continue, the ruble has remained relatively weak and has not yet appreciated to below USD/RUB 72. With the oil price fluctuating between $70 and $75/bbl the USD/RUB exchange rate fluctuated within...

Kazakhstan faces the future

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 27 Sep 2021

The long-standing conflict in Afghanistan consistently undermined the outlook of Central Asia for over 20 years. Yet within the region, Kazakhstan has been a relative economic success story in the context of conflict-ridden neighboring states and a divergent Soviet breakup. Now, following the...

Economics: The state of subnational public finance and why 2022 could pose major challenges

MEXICO · Report · 27 Sep 2021

As we continue our analysis of the 2022 federation budget, this week we turn our attention to how it might impact the finances of local governments as well as what has been achieved in roughly five years of efforts to bring some discipline and visibility at that level. The Fiscal Discipline Law o...

What can still be approved by the Legislature in 2021 and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Sep 2021

Congress meets to vote on presidential vetoes. The Special Committee on the court-ordered payments PEC will set its work schedule. Data related to federal public accounts will be published. On Friday, the Bolsonaro government will complete 1000 days, and the president has a week of events planned...

The Interconnection of the Brazilian and Chinese Economies

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Sep 2021

THE MONETARY POLICY MAP – Next Wednesday, BRAZILIAN GROWTH AND COMMODITY PRICES – The best way to depict the dependence of growth of the Brazilian economy on Chinese growth is to examine the dispersion diagram in Graph 1. The Granger causality test based on quarterly data shows that variations of...

Friday will be Bolsonaro’s 1000th day as President of Brazil, Congress analyzes presidential vetoes, and Anatel should publish the 5G auction notice

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Sep 2021

President Bolsonaro has a busy schedule this week with several events across the country. The list of vetoes to be analyzed includes those regarding the privatization of Eletrobras; the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO); party federations; and the suspension of evictions until the end of 2021. The rapp...

A slightly surprising upgrade from Moody's

HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2021

On Friday (September 24), Moody's announced an upgrade for Hungarian sovereign debt to Baa2/Stable from Baa3/Positive. This was not entirely unexpected, on the grounds that:- Moody's previous Baa3 was one notch below the BBB/Stable ratings maintained by S&P and Fitch Ratings; and- the agency held...

Crossroads everywhere

TURKEY · Report · 26 Sep 2021

Times are changing in Turkish politics rapidly, as President Erdogan reaches a fork in the path of foreign policy, as the opposition begins to unite and expand its member parties. Erdogan came back from his NY trip in bad spirits, blasting the Biden administration for the “usual suspects”, i.e...

Shekel appreciation continues

ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Sep 2021

Brief Weekly Macro Review26/9/21With Israel still enjoying a holiday season, economic data has been sparse. Here are some highlights: The shekel continues to appreciate, by 0.55% in the past week (against the basket) and by 0.9% so far this month (following 1% in August). In July, foreign investo...

Gazprom refuses to increase gas sales to the EU as prices soar

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2021 · 1 response

On September 21 the Russian state gas giant declined to augment shipments to the west. The EU is staring an energy shortage in the face just as temperatures are cooling.On September 21 capacity for gas shipments via Ukrainian pipeline were held. Gazprom did not purchase additional capacity. The Y...

Top executive of Russian company arrested in the US

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2021

On September 24 Mark Gvetvay was arrested in the US and charged with hiding his control of foreign accounts and assets. He made his Russian wife a beneficial owner of the same. He has since divorced her. Gvetvay is an executive of Novatek. The company says the arrests will not disrupt the company...

Growth weakens, though more structural reforms are underway

CHINA · Report · 24 Sep 2021

Growth has weakened, especially in services. In August, industrial output grew 5.3% y/y, and was up 11.2% from August 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 5.4%, down 0.2 ppts from July, and down 1.2 ppts from Q2. The service production index has slowed since Q2, and grew only 4.8% y/y in Augus...

The South African Reserve Bank keeps rates unchanged despite the stronger economy

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Sep 2021

Continuing with its trend of not altering interest rates since it cut them by 25 basis points at its July 2020 meeting, the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) once again voted to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%. With the repo rate at 3.5%, the ...

GULF WEEKLY: Omani mineral exports surge, Covid restrictions ease, Royals hang in shorts

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Sep 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * MBS hosted a casual bro's gathering in Neom for Qatar’s Emir and MBZ’s brother. Ministers from Qatar and Turkey also participated in a meeting in Dubai in a further sign of the regional de-escalation trend. * There were fu...

Dep. Maia’s report on the Administrative Reform proposal approved in the Special Committee, the STF should conclude the judgment on whether the Federal Government can charge taxes on tax refunds, and the House may vote on a fiscal incentives law

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Sep 2021

The Administrative Reform proposal can now be put to a vote in the Plenary of the House, which should take place next week. There are currently 7 votes against the taxation of tax returns and 1 vote in favor. As a complementary law, the fiscal incentives law requires an absolute majority of votes...