GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

To satisfy the inflation target at the end of 2022, after having attained the level of 8.25% at the end of 2021, the Central Bank will have to raise the SELIC rate to 9.5% at the start of next year. The cost of a “sufficiently restrictive” monetary policy will be to keep the GDP gap open during a...

Broad tax reform has a low chance of approval this year and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Oct 2021

This is a short week in Brasília due to the October 12 holiday. In the House, the focus will be on the discussion of the bill that deals with the ICMS tax on fuels. The rapporteur of the bill on Auxílio Brasil may submit his report. In the Judicial branch, the STF will analyze the constitutionali...

Revised inflation outlook

VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Oct 2021

In September, because of ample cash dollar supplies by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) throughout the month, the bolivar strengthened to an exchange rate where a dollar fetched fewer than four bolivars. Consumer prices advanced by a mere 10 percent, half the speed we had previously forecast. ...

Bond purchases to come to an end on robust BoI outlook

ISRAEL · Report · 12 Oct 2021

Highlights: The BoI sounds increasingly optimistic * The BoI expects growth to reach 7% this year and 5.5% in 2022. The cumulative growth forecast (12.9%) is 1% higher than previous forecast. * Broad unemployment is expected to reach 5.2% in Q422 from a present 7.9%. * Infl...

Central Asian countries disagree on cooperating with the Taliban

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Oct 2021

On October 7 the Uzbek foreign minister visited Afghanistan. Taliban leaders publicly promised him that they they will never interfere in Uzbekistan. The Uzbek government is worried that the Taliban might have helped Islamists in Uzbekistan. Some Afghans are ethnically Uzbek. Uzbekistan has a bri...

Current account was historically strong in 3Q21

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Oct 2021

The Central bank reported that in 3Q21, the current account widened to a historical record of $40.8bn, which was almost half of its entire 9M21 value ($82.2 bn). Previously the strongest ever current account was recorded in 1Q18 ($39.0 bn) and 1Q08 ($38.0 bn). Usually, imports are low early in th...

Government's tax reform proposal leaked to the press aims to raise revenues by 2.35% GDP in 2022 and 1.79% in 2025

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Oct 2021 · 2 responses

A document from the Dominican government has been leaked to the press outlining the purposes of the tax reform that is expected to be formally disclosed in the next few days, and that so far has not been confirmed or denied by official bodies. In this document, the Dominican government lays down ...

The fiscal deficit continues to contract rapidly

ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Oct 2021

The fiscal deficit continued to contract sharply in September, reaching 6.8% GDP (adjusted for the shift in the Jewish holidays) from 8% in August. Tax revenues are up nearly 30% in January-September, due to capital gains taxation on hi-tech exits, real-estate purchase taxation, and strong PC dem...

Inflation concerns

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 Oct 2021

In a September Pulse Asia survey[1] published last week, “controlling inflation” emerged as the most urgent national concern, significantly ahead of “controlling the spread of covid-19.” Government’s approval score for handling inflation dropped 26 percentage points compared with survey results i...

Government bond purchases by BoI to come to an end on robust outlook

ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Oct 2021

The BoI sounds increasingly optimistic BoI expects growth to reach 7% this year and 5.5% in 2022. The cumulative growth forecast (12.9%) is 1% higher than previous forecast. Broad unemployment is expected to reach 5.2% in Q422 from present 7.9%. Inflation to reach 2.5% in 2021 and 1.6% in 2022. T...

It’s getting quite ugly here

TURKEY · Report · 10 Oct 2021

Recent polls herald significant drops in the approval ratings of the President Erdogan and his AKP-MHP alliance. Erdogan and his ally Bahceli seem unable to adopt new economic policies to reverse the decline. With the opposition organizing better each day and uniting around common causes, it now ...

Russian inflation rises fast

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Oct 2021

On October 7 data were released about inflation showing it reached 7.4% per annum in September 2021 according to Rosstat, the state statistical agency. This is the highest inflation since 2016, which was itself a fairly heavy year for inflation. Inflation is worse than anticipated. It was 6.7% in...

Peru: President Castillo reshuffles his Cabinet

PERU · In Brief · 08 Oct 2021

On Tuesday night, October 5, President Castillo, dismissed his controversial Prime Minister Mr. Guido Bellido and reshuffled his Cabinet. Overall the message is positive. Mr. Bellido was a highly controversial individual and many times undercut President Castillo. The latest was the nomination of...

GULF WEEKLY: S&P positive on Oman, Saudi PMI at 7-year high, IPO boom continues

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Oct 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil surged to $83 as OPEC+ held steady, and LNG is equivalent to oil at over $300. * In the latest signs of regional de-escalation Qatar’s foreign minister visited Abu Dhabi, an Emirati official talked positive on Turkey, ...

The railroads legal framework was approved in the Senate, the rapporteur of the court-ordered payments PEC submitted his report on the text in the House, and former President Lula will give an interview this morning

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Oct 2021

Deputy Hugo Motta, the rapporteur of the court-ordered payments PEC, withdrew the possibility of paying in installments. The vote on the text was scheduled for October 19. The Plenary of the House approved the summoning of Paulo Guedes to provide an explanation on the offshore issue. Next week wi...