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Envisioning a green industrial park
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Jan 2022

On several occasions, especially during the G20 meeting in Rome, as well as the recent COP 26 meeting in Glasgow, Indonesian President Joko Widodo stated that the Indonesian government envisions a green industrial park to be located in Northern Kalimantan Province. In fact, to show that the state...

Robust labor data (despite Omicron) is rate hike supportive
ISRAEL · Report · 31 Jan 2022

1. The labor market improved in the first half of January despite the deceleration impact of Omicron. 2. The Omicron wave appears to be peaking, and restrictions on schools and other activities are gradually being lifted. 3. We have updated our inflation forecast in February to 0.4%...

Unemployment declines (and employment improves) despite Omicron
ISRAEL · In Brief · 31 Jan 2022

Robust labor data despite Omicron. In the 1st half of January unemployment declined to 3.5% from 3.9% in the second half of December. Broad unemployment (including Covid furloughs which have increased recently) remained stable at 5.8%. More impressive is the increase in the number of employed by ...

Russian suffered 950,000 excess deaths since pandemic began
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

On January 28 data was published by the Russian Statistics Agency showing that Russia has experienced the sharpest natural population decline since the early 1990s. The excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 are on top of the deaths one would ordinarily expect.There were one million more deaths than birt...

Private consumption contracts (most likely temporarily) due to Omicron
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Jan 2022

Private consumption declines on Covid concernsIn Q421, Credit card purchases increased by 1.5% saar, slowing from 8.6% in Q321. A closer look points to a 2.3% m/m contraction in December with service purchases down 5.5%, clearly due to Omicron concerns.Initial data for January through 17.1 point ...

A boring week by Turkish standards
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jan 2022

Our cupboard is running empty on domestic politics, as we have covered pretty much everything of immediate import in our comments since the beginning of the year. As regards the future, we shall talk about it in our upcoming monthly report. President Erdogan launched a series of reshufflings i...

​First impressions on the announced EFF structure
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Jan 2022

The government confirmed in two separate presentations that Argentina had reached an agreement with the IMF. First, in a recorded speech, President Alberto Fernández gave a primarily political message, which seemed directed at reassuring his Kirchnerist allies. In a follow-up press conference, he...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2022 · 1 response

As was expected, the Russian financial markets were very volatile in January as the noise about the “scheduled” Russia's invasion of Ukraine became louder and more annoying in recent weeks. One can expect volatility to remain elevated also in February regardless of whether the go-ahead takes plac...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch downgrades Kuwait, Adnoc bond pending, Houthis strike UAE again
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Jan 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil keeps climbing, but OPEC+ is not expected to accelerate its tapering plan next week. * Iran nuclear talks are looking more hopeful, including mediation by Qatar on a prisoner exchange. * The Saudi sovereign borrowing...

​Consumer credit growth slows in December, as household deposit growth strengthens
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2022

CBR reported that household deposits increased in December by 5.5% m-o-m (5.8% if escrow accounts added) as the key rate was hiked amid accelerated inflation. In 2021 as a whole, household deposits grew by 13.3% as a result.At the same time, banks’ credit to households (mortgages and consumer cre...

Higher coronavirus infections than ever in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2022

On January 26 Russia broke its own record for the 6th day in a row. There were 74,000 infections but only 657 deaths. Omicron is surging.St Petersburg has banned children from theaters, movie theaters, sports venues and museums until February 13.The Mayor of Moscow said that employers must have 3...

Bolsonaro grants raise to public school teachers, Sérgio Moro discloses his earnings during his time working at Alvarez & Marsal, and Congress resumes activity next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jan 2022

According to Law 11738/08, Article 5: “The national professional salary for public teachers of basic education will be updated annually in January, starting in 2009”. If the amount is not included in the budget, some changes will have to be made. This raise tends to increase the pressure from oth...

The South African Reserve Bank starts 2022 where it ended off in 2021 – by hiking interest rates
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Jan 2022

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met this week for its first 2022 meeting and announced its interest rate decision yesterday. In line with the Reuters' poll of economists’ consensus, the Reserve Bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. As such, t...

Agreement with the IMF finally in sight?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

At the close of yesterday’s newspapers, the local press announced that Argentina had reached an agreement with the IMF and that it would be officially announced later today, Friday, Jan 28. Even though we would prefer to read the actual agreement to give a more reasoned opinion, if confirmed, thi...

No surprise at the 1-week deposit tender today: the interest rate went up to 4.3%
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jan 2022

Just as we predicted two days ago, the 1-week deposit rate was raised by the MNB by 30 bps today. No great achievement on our part: as the Monetary Council raised the base rate by 50 bps on Tuesday, and they said that the two rates will need to converge from now on, it was quite easy to find out ...

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