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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank May 19
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2022
In early February, the ruble moved to below R/$ 75, having traveled to over R/$80 at the end of January. As Russia and some leaders of NATO member countries are now engaged in discussions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “scheduled” by a group of enthusiasts in the Western countries, looks now less...
Estimated current account surplus hits record in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2022
The Russian Central bank published its flash estimate of the main elements of the country’s balance of payments. The current account surplus reached $19bn, while the trade balance widened to $21.4bn. It was greater by more than a factor of two compared to the same numbers reported in January 2021...
The Genial/Quaest presidential poll will be published today, the TSE approved the creation of the União Brasil party, and the CADE meets today to analyze the sale of Oi to TIM, Vivo and Claro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2022
The new Genial/Quaest presidential poll was carried out last week, from February 3-6. The results should be similar to other recent polls, with Lula in the lead, followed by Jair Bolsonaro, and third candidates trailing behind. The distance between them should be lower due to the beginning of the...
EU asks Azerbaijan to sell more gas
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2022
On February 4 the EU's Energy Commissioner went to Baku to ask Azerbaijan to proffer more gas. The EU is heavily reliant on Russian gas. Some EU states get 100% of their gas from Russia. The Commissioner met President Aliyev. The EU Commissioner Kadri Simson hailed the cordial relations between B...
Costa Rica: Undecided voters upset the election results again
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 08 Feb 2022
On February 6, 2022, 25 candidates were in the running in the presidential election, while 36 parties ran for Congress. Four years before, those figures were much lower, at 13 and 25, respectively. Surveys have shown high volatility and important differences among them. A second runoff election w...
Dovish comments by Deputy Governor Abir weaken the shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Feb 2022
BoI Deputy Governor Abir succeeded in reducing expectations for an imminent rate hike. Today, the shekel weakened by 0.8% against the basket of currencies following an interview (Globes) with Abir who stated that even if inflation exceeds 3% y/y in the short run, the BoI thinks it will come back ...
Past the peak of the Omicron wave?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2022
Some indicators seem to suggest that the peak of the local 5th (Omicron) wave of Covid has been just passed, whereas others, normally lagged indicators, have not shown any sign of improvement yet. Two things are for sure, anyway: hospitalisation and death rates are very much lower with Omicron th...
Congressional party leaders meet to discuss presidential vetoes, Ministry of Economy’s Special Secretary of Treasury and Budget and the Chief of Staff had a meeting, and the Human Rights Committee of the Senate approved summoning the Minister of Health
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Feb 2022
Members of Congress are pressing to overturn the vetoes on the Refis for micro and small companies, the Budget, the BR do Mar and Eletrobras, among others. The topic of discussion between the Special Secretary of the Treasury and Budget and the Chief of Staff was the tax exemption for fuels. Ther...
Positive fiscal surprises mask threatening increases in spending
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Feb 2022
Deficit numbers for 2021 came in substantially below the previous round of government projections; the same happened with debt. Minister Restrepo hinted at even better results when definitive 2021 GDP numbers come out in mid-February. The context Restrepo provided prior to releasing the defici...
HEADS UP: Anger spills out to the streets
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2022 · 1 response
Rising poverty in Turkey has been a constant theme in our reports since the beginning of 4Q2021. New Year wage, salary and pension hikes soothed some of the pain of national impoverishment. Erdogan than committed another mistake by allowing regulated prices to be hiked faster than disposable inco...
What a mess
COLOMBIA · Report · 07 Feb 2022
How to shrink the current 20-plus presidential pool to five, and then two? That is the point of the three rounds of voting on March 13th, May 29th and June 19th. Indeed, poll leaders Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández will have an almost sure spot in the first round. Next comes Oscar Iván Zuluag...
Looser monetary policy plus investment will bring stability
CHINA · Report · 07 Feb 2022
GDP rose 8.1% y/y in 2021, up 10.6% from 2019. But industrial growth declined across quarters, indicating further growth pressure, especially when Omicron outbreaks are leading to frequent lockdowns in cities. Investment grew only 4.9%, far less than in normal years. Consumption is weak. Socia...
Lula may have the most TV and radio time and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Feb 2022
Congress meets on Tuesday to review presidential vetoes. The rapporteur of the Tax Reform proposal, Roberto Rocha, may submit his report to the CCJ of the Senate. The fuel issue remains on the agenda in the Executive and Legislative branches. The Genial/Quaest and XP/Ipespe polls on the president...
Inflation, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Feb 2022
At the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank did what it had announced at the previous meeting, raising the SELIC rate by 1.5 percentage points, to 10.75%. Although it announced that at the next meeting the increase will be smaller, against a backdrop of stubborn inflation and unanchoring of expec...
High inflation could warrant surprise Central Bank move
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2022
In January 2022, CPI annual inflation was 6.94%, surpassing the 6.31% expected by the respondents to the Central Bank survey. Food, increase of 19.94%, however 186 of the 188 classes of goods and services had price increases. So, it is a widespread phenomenon that goes well beyond food (see Table...