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April's rate hike appears more certain
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Feb 2022

January’s CPI slightly exceeds expectations Inflation in January increased by 0.2% and by 3.1% y/y (up from 2.8% last month). Market expectations were in the 0.0%-0.1% m/m range. There were no big inflation surprises, several items increased slightly more than expectations; furniture and home app...

GDP, just as inflation, surprises on the upside
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Feb 2022

Real GDP growth for Q4 2021 came out at 2.1% qoq, 7.1% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis in first reading today, making the annual growth rate the same 7.1% for 2021, after -4.9% in the Covid-hit 2020. The analyst expectation was 1.3% qoq, 6.9% yoy for Q4. Growth actually accelerated in Q4...

Castillo’s last try, and the economic impact of the political crisis
PERU · Report · 15 Feb 2022

It was not difficult to project that Pedro Castillo’s main challenge as president would be to forge a credible government. Castillo was encouraged by Perú Libre party General Secretary Vladimir Cerrón to run for president, but neither man held high expectations of Castillo succeeding. Close inspe...

President Bolsonaro arrives in Russia, the TCU analyzes the privatization process of Eletrobras, and the TSE released the party advertisement calendar
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Feb 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro arrives in Russia, where he will meet with President Vladimir Putin and local businessmen. He leaves on Thursday to go to Hungary. In December, the rapporteur of the privatization process of Eletrobras, Minister Aroldo Cedraz, pointed out some inconsistencies, with a focu...

Turkmen President nominates his son to succeed him
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2022

On February 14 as we predicted, President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov appointed his son Serdar as candidate to take over the presidency. 40-year-old Serdar is the candidate of the Democratic Party. Voters will go to the polls on March 12 in an early election.It is certain that Serdar will be elec...

US shuts Embassy in Ukraine over war fears
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2022

On February 14 the US made the extraordinary move. Apart from in Kabul in 2021 the US has not shuttered an embassy for over 40 years. Communications equipment has been destroyed to prevent it from falling into the wrong hands. The US said the move was due to Russia's suddenly moving even more tro...

Economics: The government announces a new recovery plan
MEXICO · Report · 14 Feb 2022

The Ministry of Economy recently announced what it labeled as a new "Economic Reactivation Plan for 2022" that addresses four axes or pillars: the internal market; the promotion of investment projects; international trade; and competitiveness. Yet another list of good intentions from the current ...

2022 disinflation reverses in 2023
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Feb 2022

For 2022, we see Venezuela’s anti-inflationary policy framework’s staying focused on real bolivar appreciation, with few changes from 2021. Public spending will continue to slow down, although less abruptly than in previous years. The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) will keep bank credit on a sho...

Politics: Year off to a bad start for President López Obrador on several fronts
MEXICO · Report · 14 Feb 2022

The first six weeks of the new year have been rough sledding for President Lopez Obrador, and this can be seen on several key fronts. The first is in the area of public security. Journalist Carlos Loret de Mola and the organization Mexicans Against Corruption (MCCI) and Impunity circulated a vide...

Doria under pressure and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Feb 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro meets with President Vladimir Putin in Russia. Senate leaders are to discuss the fuel bill. At the TCU, the priority is the judgment on the privatization of Eletrobras. The STF judges the constitutionality of the Electoral Fund. This week's Talking Points: * Do...

Economic Activity and Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Feb 2022

The latest information, including the IBC-Br, indicate that GDP in the fourth quarter probably expanded marginally, leading to growth of 4.7% in 2021. Brazil is entering 2022 with the one-year ex ante real interest rate (the rate relevant to determine economic activity) above 6.5%, an extremely r...

The BoI is proceeding to revise the inflation target
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Feb 2022

The BoI is proceeding to revise the inflation targetThe BoI has been considering altering the inflation target for several years now. The general direction (in our opinion) is to shift the inflation target from a range of 1%-3%, to “around 2% symmetric over the medium term” as the ECB target is f...

President Bolsonaro will meet with Vladimir Putin, the STF will judge the ADI against a provision of the 2022 LDO, and Minister Fux will meet with public servants of the Judiciary to discuss a salary raise
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Feb 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro will meet with Vladimir Putin and local businessmen. Tension in the region has increased in last few days. Ukraine has convened a meeting with Russia and members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) for the next 48 hours. ADI nº 7.058 was file...

Strong fiscal numbers expected to support bond issuance reduction
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Feb 2022

1. A surprisingly large fiscal surplus in January supports lower bond issuance going forward. 2. We expect January’s CPI to come in at 0.1% m/m and 3.0% y/y (accelerating from 2.8%). 3. We maintain our call for a rate hike on April 11; further tightening will be moderate, and the cyc...

Biden repeats support for Ukraine over war fears
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Feb 2022

The US President spoke to the Ukrainian President on February 13 for an hour. Both leaders agreed to the twin-track approach to avert war: diplomacy and deterrence. The US reiterated that it recognizes Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk as legally Ukrainian. Biden underscored that if there is a Russian i...

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