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Economics: Prospects dim for a key driver of recovery as manufacturing demand is expected to soften on main fronts
MEXICO · Report · 31 May 2022

As the only GDP component to boast a significant recovery, manufacturing has contributed greatly to the economic reactivation in Mexico. Most manufacturing subsectors have enjoyed strong growth in recent quarters even as some especially crucial industries that acted as drivers during some of the ...

Here comes the son
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 31 May 2022

A new administration with an exceptional majority electoral mandate will take office on June 30. So far, it has handed the business community what it wanted, a knowledgeable and experienced economic team that could hit the ground running. This is enough for even those strongly opposed to the so...

The MNB indeed raised the base rate by 50bps today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 May 2022

The base rate and the components of the interest rate corridor have been raised all by 50 bps, the base rate and the floor of the corridor to 5.9%, whereas the ceiling of the corridor to 8.9%. The MNB has said that it is going to raise the sterilisation rate by 30 bps, to 6.75%, on Thursday. More...

Kazakhstan macro: stable real effective tenge to support economic growth
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 31 May 2022

The Kazakh tenge, having stabilized at around KZT/$ 430 after the initial pandemic shock and the fall of the oil price in 2Q20, experienced another shock in recent months. Its volatility increased again as the KZT/$ moved to well over 500 in early March and then bounced back to the same KZT/$ 430...

The state of the race and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 May 2022

The House analyzes bills that may result in lower electricity prices for consumers. The PSDB discusses support for Simone Tebet’s (MDB) candidacy. The PL will broadcast electoral advertisements and should highlight government achievements. On Thursday, the IBGE publishes the GDP for the first qua...

On Q1 GDP (and a bit more)
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2022

The Turkish GDP grew by 1.2%, q/q, and 7.3%, y/y, in the first quarter of the year (see chart), broadly in line with the consensus forecast. As regards the demand composition of growth, it is worth emphasizing at the outset that the year-on-year versus quarter-on-quarter figures yield starkly dif...

Inflation is creeping higher
INDONESIA · Report · 31 May 2022

The Indonesian economy posted encouraging results for Q1 2022. GDP grew by 5.01% year over year, above expectation. This rate of growth was almost the same as the annual rate of growth achieved in Q4 2021 of 5.02%. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy contracted by 0.96%. Howe...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 May 2022

As the war caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth month, it is evident that its costs and risks are affecting not only those on the battlefields, but the entire world. Since the start of the war, the international price of wheat has risen by more than 40% and of corn by nearly 3...

Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 May 2022

Costa Rica´s growth will slow in 2022, but won´t stop over the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Three transmission channels will negatively impact the economy: less favorable external trade, higher international prices and tighter financial conditions. These factors are pushing growth...

The labor market continues to tighten
ISRAEL · Report · 31 May 2022

1. The labor market continues to tighten as job vacancies hit record levels, supportive of wage pressure. 2. Private consumption growth appears to have moderated recently following the rapid growth when Covid restrictions were cancelled. 3. The Bank of Israel raised rates by 0.4% las...

EU bans most Russian oil
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 May 2022

On May 30 the European Union banned Russian oil except for when it is sold to Hungary. Hungary buys 65% of its oil from Russia. The aim is that Hungary will wean itself off Russian oil over several years. The move banks the import of two-thirds of Russian oil imports to the EU immediately. Poland...

Good news: accord reached on the oil embargo
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 May 2022

Early this morning, an accord has been reported to have been reached by the EU Council on the oil embargo against Russia. Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia will be allowed to temporarily continue to buy Russian oil through the southern flank of the Drushba (= Friendship !) pipeline. No deadline has b...

EU summit, rate-setting meeting, weak forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 May 2022

The situation is quite complicated once again. This afternoon, the EU Council's extraordinary summit meeting started. A key issue for the meeting is supposed to be the oil embargo against Russia. The forint was quite weak again, with EURHUF 395-396, in late trade today, as PM Orbán said earlier t...

Zelensky visits eastern front and admits situation is very difficult
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2022

On May 29 the Ukrainian President went to Ukraine's second city Kharkiv. It is only 40 km from Russia. However, the city is no longer under ground attack. Zelensky dimissed Kharkiv's security chief. The president said the man had not run the defense of the city well in February 2022. On May 29 th...

Neither sanctions relief nor negotiations, for now
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 30 May 2022

The quid pro quo that seemed to be on track a few weeks ago to reactivate negotiations appears to be on hold. License 8j extending until December 1, 2022 the operating restrictions limiting Chevron, Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International in Venezuela was a non-event...

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