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GDP up by 4.6% y-o-y in 9M21 pointing to a deceleration in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that Russia’s nominal GDP reached R33.9 trln in 3Q21. In 4Q21 the nominal figure will be even higher so that GDP in 2021 as a wh0le will exceed R128 trln, as was reported in our recent forecast. The 9M21 GDP was up by 4.6% y-o-y - having increased by 4.3% y-o-y in 3Q21 and by 7.4...

Inflation w-o-w staying low for a second consecutive week in December
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending December 13, inflation w-o-w was again at 0.06%, i.e., the same as a week before. In two weeks of December inflation reached just 0.12%, which was in stark contrast to much higher inflation seen in October and November (inflation YTD reached 7.64% by mid...

Inflation in November at low end of expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Dec 2021

Low CPI print in NovemberInflation in November declined by 0.1% m/m and increased by 2.4% y/y (up slightly from 2.3% last month). Expectations were mostly in the 0.0%-0.1% range (our forecast was -0.1%). Both fresh produce prices (-4.6% m/m on warm weather) and clothing prices (-0.8%) surprised o...

The first round of voting on the Precatórios PEC was approved in the House, Sen. Antonio Anastasia’s appointment to the TCU was approved, and the Senate may vote on the edits to the bill providing for tax exemptions when purchasing vehicles
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2021

Two edits submitted by the PT to the Precatórios PEC were rejected. Three more edits need to be analyzed – one from the PT and PSOL, one from the Novo and another from the DEM. The goal is to conclude the first and second rounds of voting today. The parts of the text that are changed will return ...

Leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to talk in Brussels
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2021

On December 15 President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan met with the President of the European Council. Four hours of talks took place. This is the 5th time that the two leaders have met in the past 12 months. The two countries are discussing re-establishing transport and communication links...

​Saudi budgets for a rare surplus and Oman sees its deficit narrowing
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

* The estimated 2021 Saudi deficit of -2.7% of GDP, the least since 2013, is larger than our forecast largely because of a sharp drop in revenue remitted from sovereign wealth funds. * The oil price assumption for 2022 has been hiked to about $65 (from $50 in the September pre-budget statement),...

The House is scheduled to vote on the Precatórios PEC today, the Senate discusses the appointment to the TCU and the Centrão is positioned to overturn the presidential veto on the electoral fund
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Dec 2021

The House wants to approve the part of the Precatórios PEC that came from the Senate and promulgate what has already been analyzed by the senators. Only what is modified in the House would return to the Senate for further analysis. Three names are in the running for the Senate’s appointee to the ...

The MNB raised the base rate & interest rate corridor, ended quantitative easing
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Dec 2021

The Monetary Council held its regular monthly rate-setting meeting on December 14, slightly earlier within the month than usual, because of the upcoming holiday season. Essentially, it did three things: it discussed the quarterly inflation forecast, took interest rate decisions and discussed poli...

Castillo’s government weakens; growth likely to moderate in 2022‒23
PERU · Forecast · 14 Dec 2021

Popular support for the government of President Pedro Castillo continues to dwindle, at a surprisingly rapid pace. Last week the government averted an impeachment process in Congress by only six votes. This perilous state has developed only four months after Castillo stepped into office. Without ...

What happens in Barinas doesn’t stay in Barinas
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Dec 2021

Barinas State is the home state of former president Hugo Chávez. It has been governed by the Chávez clan since 1998. On November 21, the Unity Platform (Plataforma Unitaria, or PU) candidate and a Popular Will (Voluntad Popular, or VP) party member, Freddy Superlano, won the race for governor...

Steady and strong CA surplus remains shekel positive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Dec 2021

The CA surplus in Q321 reached 5.3bn USD from 4.9bn in Q2 and 6.4bn in Q1. In Q3 the trade deficit increased by 1.1bn to 6.0bn while the service account surplus increased by 0.6bn to 10.1bn. Net revenues from financial investments abroad reduced the primary income account deficit. Net FDI reached...

Politics: Presidential popularity high but uneven, with considerable voter support for the INE
MEXICO · Report · 13 Dec 2021

Despite most opinion polls showing that President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador enjoys broad majority support, with the average giving him a 65% approval rating, GEA-ISA estimates put the figure at 54%, with voter disapproval at 40%. This is largely unchanged since September. In the most recent ele...

Economics: Rising inflation and mounting risks heading into 2022
MEXICO · Report · 13 Dec 2021

Consumer inflation continued to accelerate in November by climbing 7.37%, the highest reading in more than 20 years as a series of risks pose the threat of a price spiral in the year to come. Clearly this is part of a much broader global phenomenon, but there are specific risks in Mexico that rai...

Recession and High Interest Rates in an Election Year
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Dec 2021

With the fiscal anchor destroyed by the Precatórios PEC, and inflation closing 2021 above 10%, the Central Bank will have to maintain monetary policy in restrictive territory for the foreseeable future. The SELIC rate at the start of 2021 was 2% and will end at 9.25%, with further increases assur...

The last week of work in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2021

This may be the last week of congressional activity this year. The goal in Congress is to vote on the Federal Budget by Friday, December 17, and start recess early; it would typically start on December 23. The Precatórios PEC is one of the main items on the agenda. The TCU may adjudicate Eletrobr...

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