GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The politics section starts with an assessment of President Erdogan’s mental condition, an issue now brought up by the opposition. He may be experiencing momentary lapses of memory or early signs of dementia. This non-medical diagnosis suggests decision making in Ankara will likely become even mo...

Pres. Bolsonaro submitted an impeachment request against Min. de Moraes and may submit another against Min. Barroso. The STF should analyze the autonomy of the Central Bank and the exclusion of the ISS in calculating the PIS and Cofins taxes

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Aug 2021

Rodrigo Pacheco has said that he does not believe there is technical, political or legal basis for the impeachment of the STF ministers. The rapporteurs of the Administrative Reform proposal in the House and the Tax Reform proposal in the Senate should submit their reports on the texts. Today, 24...

Rates remain unchanged as well as forward guidance

ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Aug 2021

Rates remained unchanged today at 0.1% with the monetary statements noting both the uptick in infections (but hopeful that the booster shot will slow this trend) as well as the strong economic recovery. The output gap is at 3% in Q221, compared to the previous assessment of 4.5%. There is a hirin...

GDP growth likely to reach nearly 7% this year

ISRAEL · Report · 23 Aug 2021

* Robust GDP numbers in the 2nd quarter and an upward revision to the 1st quarter reflect a strong economic recovery, less supportive of monetary accommodation. * Job vacancies continue to move higher despite strong employment growth. * Consumer confidence has weakened on concerns regard...

The Center-Left’s “Consultation”

CHILE · Report · 23 Aug 2021 · 1 response

Yasna Provoste, the Christian Democratic president of the Chilean Senate, has won the Unidad Constituyente (UC, or Constituent Unity) primaries, held on Saturday. The Chilean presidential election is now essentially a four-horse race, representing the far left, far right, center left and center r...

The Refidomsa deal

VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Aug 2021

On August 19, the government of the Dominican Republic announced the purchase of 49 percent of the shares of the Dominican Petroleum Refinery (Refidomsa) held by PDV Caribe (a Pdvsa subsidiary) for €74 million ($88 million), $43 million less than what PDV Caribe paid in 2010 ($131 million). The D...

GDP growth likely to reach nearly 7% this year

ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Aug 2021

Highlights of weekly macro review:GDP growth surprises on the upside GDP growth reached 15.4% saar in Q2 (on strong PC growth) and Q1 growth was revised sharply upwards. GDP growth is 3.2% above pre-Covid level (in real terms). Assuming modest growth in 2H21, annual growth likely to reach 7%. Thi...

The Dominican State bought PDVSA's shares in REFIDOMSA

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Aug 2021

Yesterday the Minister of Finance, Jochi Vicente, announced the completion of the purchase operation of 49% of the shares of the Refinería Dominicana de Petróleo (REFIDOMSA) that were owned by Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), for an amount of USDS88.1 m. PDVSA had acquired the shares in 2010 for a...

Growth robust for now, but tapering may hurt

UKRAINE · Report · 20 Aug 2021

H1 2021 was marked by poor economic performance, as industrial output stagnated along with contracting agro-production following poor harvests in 2020. GDP recovered in Q2 by a modest 5.4% y/y, after plunging 11.2% y/y a year ago. Yet there was a strong revival in private consumption, as retail t...

President Bolsonaro should sanction the LDO, Paulo Guedes discusses Income Tax Reform, and Bolsonaro files a lawsuit against the STF’s ability to launch an investigation against him

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Aug 2021

Bolsonaro will likely veto the increase of the electoral fund that was approved by Congress in the LDO in July. Paulo Guedes will give an interview at 5 p.m. on José Márcio Camargo’s YouTube channel. The lawsuit submitted by Bolsonaro is a more cautious approach to the conflict than the impeachme...

GULF WEEKLY: EDO raises $2.5bn loan, Bahrain’s H1 fiscal, Kuwait plans spending cuts, Turkey-UAE meeting

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Aug 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UAE granted refugee status to the Afghan president, and Qatar was a focal point for evacuations and Taliban talks. * Inflation rose to multi-year highs in July in several states but in Saudi it dropped sharply, a year ...

Delta watch 4 (Restrictions relaxed… somewhat)

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Aug 2021

Likely swayed by economic managers’ concerns, the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) relaxed mobility restrictions in Metro Manila, allowing the nation’s capital to transition from enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) to modified enhanced community quarantine (mECQ). Earlier in the week, after rumors ...

Announcement of constitutional reform to establish an independent Office of the Attorney General

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Aug 2021

President Luis Abinader, in a speech to the Nation on the occasion of the first year of his mandate, announced that during this year he will be calling for a constitutional reform with the purpose of consolidating the independence of the Office of the Attorney General, one of his main campaign pr...

Is high popularity a buffer against social unrest?

ECUADOR · Report · 19 Aug 2021

Approximately 80% of Ecuadorians approve of President Lasso’s government in the first 90 days of his administration, and his popularity increased slightly between June and August 6, from 71.4% to 73.5%, according to CEDATOS. Also, his credibility is up from 61.7% to 63.2% in this period. But whil...

Revisions to short-term external debt data

TURKEY · Report · 19 Aug 2021 · 2 responses

The CBRT, as signaled earlier (link here), revised gross short-term external debt; net international investment position (NIIP), and corporate sector net F/X position data today. The key revision on the (gross) short-term external debt side concerns a reduction in trade (import) credits by around...