GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The House holds the second round vote on the Political Reform Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) and will try to pass the income tax bill. The Pandemic Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) in the Senate has a discussion between Deputy Luiz Miranda and the Minister of Employment and Socia...

The Meaning of Restrictive Monetary Policy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Aug 2021

In making the decision to raise the SELIC rate above the level compatible with the neutral level, the Central Bank announced it will execute restrictive monetary policy. Without counting on the “expectations channel”, which is becoming unanchored, and without a contribution from the “exchange rat...

Bolsonaro stated that he would submit impeachment requests against ministers of the STF, the House may vote on the income tax this week, and the TCU will analyze the 5G auction notice

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2021

Singer and former Federal deputy Sergio Reis said there would be a mobilization of soy farmers and truck drivers if Rodrigo Pacheco chooses not to vote on the paper ballot issue and rejects the impeachment requests against the STF ministers. This Friday is the deadline for President Bolsonaro to ...

Politics: AMLO and the judicial branch, an increasingly complicated relationship

MEXICO · Report · 16 Aug 2021 · 1 response

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is at loggerheads with the judicial branch, and more specifically with the Supreme Court and the Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF), which is the highest authority in the electoral field and whose decisions cannot be appealed. The President charges that the j...

July’s CPI surprises slightly on the upside

ISRAEL · Report · 16 Aug 2021

* July’s CPI surprised slightly on the upside, and core increased to 1.7% y/y from 1.2%. * We expect inflation of 1.1% as shekel appreciation continues to moderate inflation while housing rental prices accelerate. * Israeli institutions were net FX sellers of 3.9bn USD in June and 16bn...

Over-optimistic forecasters

INDIA · Report · 16 Aug 2021

As the year progresses, GDP forecasts in India are improving, as is to be expected. But there is a bias in the form of over-optimism. Crude bias correction is applied, based on four years of evidence, to obtain a modified consensus forecast for 2021-22: 6.8% GDP growth. GDP measurement in Indi...

Robust GDP growth as well as declining unemployment

ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2021

Robust GDP growth as well as declining unemployment GDP growth in Q2 reached 15.4% saar (1st estimate), above consensus and our expectations. GDP growth in Q1 was revised upwards to -1.4% from -5.8%. In Q2, Private consumption growth reached 36.3% (due to the opening up of the economy), investmen...

July’s CPI surprises slightly on the upside

ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2021

July’s CPI increased by 0.4% m/m above expectations for 0.3% Headline inflation increased to 1.9% y/y (from 1.7%), core inflation reached 1.7% (up from 1.2%). Housing rental prices accelerated slightly, reaching 1.2% y/y (up from 1.0% last month). Housing purchase prices (a separate survey) incre...

Russian economy bouncing back

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Aug 2021

On August 13 data by the Federal Statistics Agency was published demonstrating that the economy recovered strongly in Q2 2021. The economy grew 10.3% YoY in that quarter. Admittedly Q2 2020 was the worst quarter for several years. The data for Q3 is expected to be even better. In Q1 2021 there wa...

GDP up 10.3% y-o-y in 2Q21 – in line with expectations

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Aug 2021

Rosstat reported the Russian GDP was up in 2Q21 by 10.3% y-o-y, which is in line with our expectations (the latest forecast published in early June 2021). It was a preliminary estimate, and Rosstat provided no more details. One cannot rule out that at a later stage, Rosstat may revise the reporte...

Inflation in Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Aug 2021

On August 9 the Russian Statistics Agency published data showing that food prices are coming down after months of increase. Inflation for food came down from 7.9% per annum in June to 7.4% in July. The government will be pleased. It knows that food price rises will hit its popularity. 12% of Russ...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait's 2020 deficit 30% of GDP, Covid rates ease regionally, Oman’s H1 deficit 9% of GDP

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Aug 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IPCC gave a grim climate assessment that could spur an accelerated energy transition. * Raisi nominated his cabinet, and hints began to emerge for the future of nuclear negotiations. * Coronavirus rates have fallen sh...

An External Transparency Committee will follow the entire electoral process, the House approved the return of party coalitions, and the income tax bill should be put to a vote next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2021

The STF received a criminal report from the TSE against President Bolsonaro for leaking information from the investigation of the Federal Police into the cyber attacks on the electronic voting machines in 2018. Deputy Ricardo Barros should testify in the Pandemic CPI again. President Bolsonaro ha...

Policy direction in China

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Aug 2021

Faced with unusual challenges, including Covid and US-China decoupling, China is choosing to focus on four main policy areas. These are: * Covid response. * Macroeconomy. * Regulatory environment (including US-China policy). * The Property sector. The choices the lead...

MPC: Rates on hold as expected, but uncertainty prevails

TURKEY · Report · 12 Aug 2021

The Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rate (one week repo) at 19% today. This was the consensus expectation, although there were some second thoughts prevailing among market players whether the Bank would be able to hold its ground after the recent comments made by President Erdogan (link...