GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Last week, TotalEnergies and Equinor announced their decision to withdraw from the Petrocedeño joint venture, the most important Venezuelan crude upgrader, capable of processing 190,000 barrels a day of extra-heavy crude and producing 170,000 barrels of synthetic crude of 30o API. PDVSA is now th...

Minister Fux canceled the meeting he planned between the leaders of the three branches of government, the Paper Ballot PEC was rejected in the Special Committee of the House, and Ricardo Barros should testify in the Pandemic CPI next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2021

Luís Roberto Barroso and Alexandre Moraes have been attacked by Bolsonaro due to their positioning on the paper ballot issue and the Fake News allegations. The Paper Ballot PEC can still be put to a vote in the plenary of the House despite being rejected in the Committee. The House will try to vo...

GULF WEEKLY: Tanker attacks overshadow Raisi inauguration, Gulf PMIs are strong, Oman backtracks on subsidy reform

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Aug 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf ministers from UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman attended President Raisi’s inauguration. * Two Europeans were killed in a drone strike on a tanker off Oman, and there was an attempted hijacking of another, both blamed on I...

Withdrawal of the retrospective tax

INDIA · Report · 06 Aug 2021

The government of India has moved a bill to withdraw the retrospective tax introduced in 2012 that led to litigation such as the Vodaphone and Cairn cases. While the bill will put an end to 17 cases in which the tax was imposed retrospectively, this is not a move to resident-based taxation.

Delta watch 3 (ECQ starts)

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Aug 2021

On the eve of Metro Manila’s two-week enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) that begins today and ends on August 20, authorities decided to tighten restrictions as well in other key cities and provinces that account for over 40% of GDP. (Table 1) Government is well aware of the economic cost of the...

President Ramaphosa Reshuffles South Africa's National Cabinet - at last!

SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

A few minutes ago, President Ramaphosa finally delivered the long-awaited Cabinet reshuffle. After months and months of speculation, and following the destructive and unsettling insurrection of the last month, President Ramaphosa had no choice but to make changes to his Cabinet. At the same time,...

Costa Rica: Mid-term revision of the Macroeconomic Program 2021-2022

CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

The Central Bank of Costa Rica released the mid-term revision of the macroeconomic program for 2021-2022 on July 30th. Based on H1 indicators, with a better external outlook and improvement on vaccine process, the Bank concluded that economic activity will be higher than previous estimates in 202...

Court-ordered payments PEC and new Bolsa Família provisional measure may be submitted, the House approved the urgent status of the income tax bill and the TSE sent a criminal report against Bolsonaro to the STF due to Fake News

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2021

The House may vote on the privatization of the Correios. Bolsonaro’s allies and his son are trying to convince Arthur Lira to take the paper ballot bill directly to a vote in the plenary. A statement was published in the newspaper Estadão that guarantees the elections will be respected next year....

FX intervention tapering

ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

The BoI appears to have taken its foot off the intervention gas pedal. In July, only 0.5bn USD were purchased following 3.2bn in June and more than 25bn on 1H21. The shekel appreciated by 0.7% in July (against the basket), following a 1% appreciation in June. Pressure for appreciation has continu...

Sber investing heavily in digital ecosystem

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

Sber is investing USD billion in its digital ecosystem in Q1 and Q3 2021. Sber wants to be the main actor in Russia's tech space. The investment is 11.5% of Sber's profits. It was previously called Sberbank. Profits were USD 8.3 billion in Q1 and Q2 2021.Sber has invested heavily in its ecosystem...

Covid update: the infection curve remains low and flat for now

HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

The return of Covid in a 4th wave with the Delta variant within a few weeks has been identified as a very likely, or more accurately as an unavoidable, event both by government speakers and by independent experts. Essentially all of the foregoing expect the 4th wave to kick in around late Septemb...

Dep. Celso Sabino submitted a new report on the income tax bill, Minister Braga Netto will be summoned by a Committee in the House, and Lieutenant Colonel of the Reserve Marcelo Blanco da Costa testifies in the Pandemic CPI

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Aug 2021

Despite the changes to the text, state treasury secretaries still do not support the income tax bill. Arthur Lira stated that he will find a solution to the court-ordered payments issue with Luiz Fux and may be able to vote on Administrative Reform by the end of the year. The Senate may vote on t...

Russian Central Bank selling Otkritie Bank

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Aug 2021

On August 3 the regulator said that it aimed to sell Otrkitie Bank before the end of 2021. The Russian Central Bank (CBR) said that it is seeking a strategic investor to buy the bank. CBR wants to do due diligence and to prepare bidders to take over Otkritie Bank which is one of the major lenders...

Wildfire Losses: Anecdotal Evidence

TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Aug 2021

Turkey has witnessed an inordinate number of wildfires over the last two weeks, which caught the nation and the administration by surprise.To date, more than 161 forest fires had been reported in 16 different provinces. Wildfires are still raging in 5 cities in the South of turkey, but only one o...

OFZ: moving to an inverted curve

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Aug 2021

Long-term OFZs demonstrated a strong performance in the second half of July, their yields compressing by 30-35 bps. Many investors suppose that the tightening phase of the CBR’s monetary policy is almost over and that interest rates in Russia will move down in the longer term. The potential decre...