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Conspiracy is in the air
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Feb 2022

More than one political analyst and/or well-informed journalist is talking about the evident intent of UNES, Social Christians and the nine dissident members of Pachakutik to take over the Assembly, appointing new authorities and destabilizing the government of President Lasso, as well. As twe...

Bracing for change
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 22 Feb 2022

Several forthcoming changes cloud the outlook for 2022. The major change domestically is the midyear change in government that introduces some degree of policy uncertainty. The major change externally is the impending US Fed policy rate hike that raises risks for emerging markets, especially thos...

Evangelical vote targeted and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Feb 2022

The Senate attempts to vote on fuel-related bills. At the CCJ of the Senate, the rapporteur of the Tax Reform proposal, Roberto Rocha (PSDB-MA), submits his report. Minister Edson Fachin is the new president of the TSE. Four new presidential election polls will be published. This week's Talkin...

MNB base rate up 50 bps today, expect +30 bps in the 1-week deposit rate on Thursday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Feb 2022

At its regular monthly rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Council raised the base rate by another 50 bps, the same amount as in January, to 3.4%. The interest rate corridor was adjusted upwards accordingly, to 3.4-5.4%.Vice governor Virág explained the Council's view in a now usual YouTube appear...

Turkey Covid Watch - February 22, 2022
TURKEY · Report · 22 Feb 2022

After reaching new peaks within the two weeks since our previous Covid Watch (February 7, 2022), cases began to drop slowly. On Monday, cases reached 86.4K, corresponding to some 15% decline from two weeks ago. Experts expect cases to decline further in the coming weeks. The regulatory environmen...

Two presidential candidates participate in the CEO Conference, Minister Edson Fachin assumes the presidency of the TSE, and the House may vote on two important bills
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Feb 2022

Sérgio Moro (Podemos) and João Doria (PSDB), will participate in the CEO Conference held by Banco BTG Pactual at 10:45 a.m. and 11 a.m., respectively. Ciro Gomes and Bolsonaro will participate tomorrow. Minister Edson Fachin assumes the presidency of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) today, repl...

Russia's risk to remain elevated
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Feb 2022

As expected in the previous reports of the Russia Economics series, the Russian markets remained volatile in February. The ruble traveled shortly to above R/$ 80 territory last night while markets were awaiting the political decisions in the aftermath of the country’s Security Council meeting. As...

The Fiscal Situation of The States
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Feb 2022

The past two years have witnessed a significant improvement in the fiscal situation of the subnational entities, which in 2021 had a primary surplus of 1.2% of GDP. This is partly due to structural improvements, such as the reforms of the civil service pension systems in some states. However, the...

Russia recognizes Luhansk and Donetsk republics: West vows sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Feb 2022

On February 21 Putin announced that he was recognizing the two regions that have broken away from Ukraine. Russia now regards the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) and the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) as independent countries. Putin announced that Russian troops had moved into these regions as p...

The BoI prepares markets for imminent tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Feb 2022

1. The forward guidance in the monetary statement shifted sharply, conveying the likelihood of tightening in “coming months”. 2. The various factors in the monetary statement all support tightening: inflation has accelerated, growth is robust, unemployment has declined and the Omicron wave ...

Russia recognizes occupied territories: the play comes to the end
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Feb 2022

Everything develops in line with the scenario we described here. Russia recognized occupied territories of Donbas and Luhansk as independent states and deployed ‘peacekeepers’ in those territories. We see this development as a face-saving withdrawal for Kremlin. Moscow has been raising stakes thu...

The BoI prepares the market for imminent tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Feb 2022

The BoI prepares the market for imminent tightening Rates remained unchanged today (as expected) but the big news was the sharp shift in the forward guidance from “The Israeli economy’s process of recovery from the crisis continues. However, there are still challenges to economic activity. The Co...

The PMI declines sharply
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Feb 2022

The PMI declined in January by 4.9 points to 42.9, with both the domestic and export orders declining sharply (by over 7 points) to reflect contraction. The employment component fell by 18 points. Activity in January was influenced by the Omicron wave, but nevertheless, this sharp decline in all ...

Big Brother economics
TURKEY · Report · 20 Feb 2022 · 1 response

The Ukraine Crisis looms as a not-so-small threat to economic stability, not to mention the political implications. Having covered the politics of it in our previous reports, we take a brief look at the potential economic fallout. Erdogan’s UAE’s visit was hailed as a major political and econ...

Robust growth supports monetary tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Feb 2022

The Israeli economy expanded by 8.1% in 2021 Annual GDP growth in Q421 reached 16.6% following 6.7% in Q321. The level of GDP in Q421 is 8.9% above Q419 (pre-Covid), basically reflecting rapid annual growth of above Israel’s estimated growth potential of 4%. The output gap is rapidly closing. Lab...

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