GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Armenia held a parliamentary election on June 20, 2021. The acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's My Step Alliance won 545 of the vote. This exceeded expectations. The opposition, led by Robert Kocharyan, said the results were due to cheating. His party won only 21%.Pashinyan is an English-spea...

Analysts expect the sterilisation rate to rise to 0.9% tomorrow

HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Jun 2021

The much-awaited June rate-setting meeting, when the Monetary Council is set discuss the quarterly inflation report as well, is due tomorrow. Analysts, including us, expect both the 1-week deposit rate and the base rate to go 0.9%, from 0.75% and 0.6% respectively. In effective terms, this would ...

Macro (shekel) fundamentals improve in Q121

ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Jun 2021

Highlights: Inflation surprised slightly on the downside in May. Inflation reached 1.5% y/y and core inflation 1.0% y/y. The main surprise came from clothing prices, with a modest seasonal price increase. This suggests that the seasonal price decline in the summer months will also be more modest....

Goodbye Biden, hello (again) volatility

TURKEY · Report · 20 Jun 2021

This week’s report is uncharacteristically short and focuses mainly on the economic data, as our politics author-cum-cosmic strategist is experiencing internet problems where he is. As regards the much-anticipated Biden-Erdogan meeting, this author’s understanding is that all contentious issue...

Putin announces massive public spending as his party loses popularity

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jun 2021

On June 19 Putin said at a United Russia Party conference that RUB 100 billion would be spent on infrastructure and welfare. Putin was a member of United Russia until 2010. Now he is an independent. However, United Russia is the most slavishly pro-Putin party. Putin's ratings are always above the...

Gazprom causes massive methane leak

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jun 2021

On June 19 Gazprom acknowledge its greatest environmental disaster in 2 years. Gazprom is the biggest gas company in Russia. The leak occurred on June 4 and Gazprom tried not to admit it. There have been several significant polluting events in Russia over the last few years. 2.7 million cubic met...

Takeaways from congressional hearings on recent power outages

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 Jun 2021

Ordinarily, rotational brownouts lasting a few hours are par for the course during hot summer months in the Philippines. The heat drives up usage of air conditioners at a time when power generation from hydroelectric plants falls. Puzzlingly though, outages this time around happened while the eco...

GULF WEEKLY: Strong Saudi Q1 GDP, Dubai bails out Emirates, Egypt-Qatar reconciliation

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Jun 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oman’s coronavirus cases and deaths hit new records, and hospitals are under strain. * Saudi non-oil Q1 GDP grew by 4.9% q/q SA, even stronger than the earlier flash indicator. * However, the tourism sector will suffer a ...

Senate approves the provisional measure on the privatization of Eletrobras, House must vote on the measure by next Tuesday, and the COVID CPI meets with doctors today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jun 2021

Since the text of the provisional measure on Eletrobras was edited in the Senate, it will have to return to the House for further analysis. Doctors Ricardo Zimmermann and Francisco Cardoso meet with the COVID CPI today. Most financial institutions belive that the basic interest rate will increase...

Turkey's increasing presence in Central Asia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jun 2021

On June 9 the Kyrgyz President visited Turkey. The Turkish-Kyrgyz Business Forum was addressed by him. A Turkish-Kyrgyz citizen was recently kidnapped by Turkish intelligence. Japarov did not broach the issue. He did not wish to offend his hosts, and his own intelligence service might have been m...

Biden's summit with Putin ends surprisingly cordially

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2021

On June 16 the two presidents met in Switzerland. There were none of the testy exchanges that some expected. The heads of state agreed that nuclear war cannot be won. Biden pressed Putin on human rights.The presidents had a 4-hour one-to-one meeting. Putin was gratified that Biden described Russi...

Russia’s inflation seems decelerating w-o-w but accelerates y-o-y

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2021

Rosstat reported that w-o-w inflation during the period ending on June 15 was at 0.12%, which is lower than during the previous seven-day period when it was at 0.16%. As a result, inflation in the first two weeks of June reached 0.28%. Inflation y-o-y, however, still accelerate as the m-o-m infla...

Russia’s inflation seems decelerating w-o-w but accelerates y-o-y

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2021

Senate votes on the privatization of Eletrobras, two testimonies in the COVID CPI today and Luciano Huck will not run in 2022

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jun 2021

The provisional measure on Eletrobras will have to return to the House if approved, as edits were made to the text. In the COVID CPI, Carlos Wizard and Alexandre Silva Marques have the right to remain silent on questions that could incriminate them. Center parties met yesterday to discuss creatin...

MPC: Playing catch-up with reality -- very slowly

TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Jun 2021

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rate (one-week repo rate) unchanged at 19% (simple) today.A comparison of the new statement with the old yields very little tangible differences, as far as we can see, though there is perhaps a bit more emphasis on – or a belated acknowle...