GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In May inflation sped up to +1.3% m/m or +9.5% y/y from +0.7% m/m or +8.4% y/y in April. Stronger food prices (+1.7% m/m from +1.2% m/m in April) as well as jump in utilities’ tariffs (+3.9% m/m from +0.4% m/m in April) are the main drivers of consumer inflation with foods adding 0.74 ppt (out of...

Reduction of public debt service in USD1,310 m for the period 2022-2027

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 09 Jun 2021

The Ministry of Finance announced the reduction of the public debt service by DOP74,908 m (USD1,310 m) for the period 2022-2027, through a liability management operation in the local market. The operation consisted of swapping bonds with a face value of DOP92,427 m (USD1,617.44 m) and interest ra...

Emergency aid program should be extended for another two to three months and Special Committee on Administrative Reform should be installed

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2021

The government is looking into other social programs ahead of the upcoming presidential elections. Senator Rogério’s report on the privatization of Eletrobras should be submitted today. Senator Bezerra was indicted by the Federal Police for allegedly receiving R$ 10 million when he a minister dur...

Tajikistan and Pakistan ink deal

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2021

On June 2 they signed a memorandum of understanding. The Prime Minister of Tajikistan visited Pakistan for the first ever time. Tajikistan is going to buy Pakistani weapons. Which ones have not been specified. Both countries border Afghanistan. Both are concerned about how the situation in that c...

May CPI-inflation remained at peak level, MNB hardened tightening talk a bit further

HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2021

The headline rate of CPI-inflation for May was reported at 0.5% mom, 5.1% yoy this morning. The yoy rate was unchanged from April, ending up lower than the average analyst expectation of 5.2-5.4%.Fuel prices rose further by 1.7% mom, but their yoy increase moderated to 36.2%, from April's peak 39...

May: a month between the good news of recovery, and the bad news of a third COVID-19 wave

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 08 Jun 2021

Amid the good news of the economy expanding by 11.5% during January-April 2021, from the same period in 2020, the government was forced to announce the imposition of greater restrictions on mobility for the first week of June, and the intensification of vaccination efforts. The COVID-19 situat...

World Bank warns Eastern Europe and Central Asia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2021

On June 8 the World Bank said that these regions face major risks well into 2022. These regions will grow by 3.9% in 2021. That seems excellent but in many cases it will not make up for the losses since March 2020. Russia will grow 3.2% in 2021. Rising world demand and rising prices for industria...

South Africa’s economy starts 2021 on a positive note, but the looming third wave of Covid-19 infections present a downside risk to growth

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Jun 2021

Real annualized quarterly GDP went up by 4.6% in the first quarter of 2021. This was following annualized expansions of 67.3% q/q and 4.6% q/q during the third and fourth quarter of 2020, respectively. Today’s GDP print confirms that South Africa’s economy is indeed recovering from its record slu...

Russian Macro: Revising Forecasts Uр

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 08 Jun 2021

Amid the ongoing global recovery, continuously loose monetary policies in the developed countries, and fiscal stimuli, oil and other commodity prices are likely to secure Russia’s strong current account surplus this year and next despite rapidly growing imports. The federal budget is likely to be...

The 140th attention-grabbing ploy, amid a strong economy

UKRAINE · Report · 08 Jun 2021

We’re all doomed to watch President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s latest TV project, called “The National Security Council.” Every Friday, journalists and observers are obliged to set aside time to find out what the producers in the Office of the President have generated for the nation’s viewers this tim...

Data on industry, hotels and inflation

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2021

Industrial output rose 59.3% yoy but fell 3.2% mom in April, both on sda basis. The first one was spectacular, but there was a massive base effect, because of a Covid lockdown in force last April, of course. The second one was quite poor, but there was a Covid lockdown in force this April, too. T...

Arthur Lira discusses Administrative Reform, Paulo Guedes deals with the privatization of Eletrobras and Marcelo Queiroga testifies in the COVID CPI

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jun 2021

The COVID CPI will likely focus on Copa America and Dr. Luana Araujo’s testimony from last week. The national leadership of the PSDB discusses the upcoming primaries. There is intense political pressure for the extension of the emergency aid program.

Unemployment back above 8%

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Jun 2021

The just released April round of the Labor Force Survey offers an informative comparison of the employment picture between first, this year’s lockdown vs. last year, and second, job losses during the latest lockdown. The main takeaways:Losses from this year’s smarter lockdown were substantially l...

Politics: Tough choices in wake of campaign 2021

MEXICO · Report · 08 Jun 2021

Although the parties allied in support of AMLO will no longer enjoy a qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies, it appears the president may command the simple majority needed to pass regular legislation, including the expenditure bill over which the lower chamber of Congress holds exclusive...

Russia's riposte to Canadian sanctions

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2021

On June 7 Moscow imposed sanctions on 9 Canadian officials. They are government ministers and security chiefs. This was in response to Canada's sanctioning of Russian officials over the Navalny case. The 9 Canadians are forbidden to enter Russia indefinitely.The surprising thing is that it took t...