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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 2 -
Brazil Economics databank Jun 16
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank May 27
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jul 7
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Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
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Ecuador databank Jun 20
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Gulf Countries databank Jul 4
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Hungary databank Jun 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jun 6
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Jun 16
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South Africa databank Jun 9
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula will continue and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2021
A crucial week for Auxílio Brasil – if the Court-ordered payments PEC is not approved in the House, the government will resort to a Plan B that includes the return of the Emergency Aid program. A truck drivers' strike is scheduled for today. Anatel will hold the 5G auction this week. This wee...
Turkey Covid Watch - November 1, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 01 Nov 2021
The downward trend in cases that started two weeks ago has solidified with cases falling, albeit at a moderate pace.
Tentative IMF deal struck, as presidential popularity tumbles, and recovery wanes
UKRAINE · Report · 01 Nov 2021
Autumn is traditionally intense in Ukraine, and this year is no exception. A staff-level agreement with the IMF, the Pandora Papers, the replacement of the speaker, the president’s falling ratings, and a new, more virulent wave of COVID-19 are only the most important issues. Two long-awaited e...
The truck drivers' strike today should be small, the Court-ordered payments PEC should be put to a vote on Wednesday, and the 5G auction should be held on the same day
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2021
The truck drivers’ strike is expected to be small today. Isolated strikes are expected to take place, and efforts will be made to demobilize the demonstrations. Regarding the Court-ordered payments PEC, the government still doesn't have enough votes (308) to approve the text but there is room for...
South Africa’s recovery is driven by the commodity price boom– but tapering off
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 01 Nov 2021
Households: South African households took a big hit from the Covid-19 pandemic, and domestic demand has expectedly been adversely affected.Even though household consumption expenditure has undergone a relatively fast recovery, downside risks remain. Unemployment: Unemployment once again reache...
Consolidation of the fiscal side
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Nov 2021
The Indonesian government is in a balancing act toward fiscal consolidation in the midst of its effort to further stimulate the economy. By law, the budget deficit should be set below 3% starting in 2023. So far, defying the skeptics, the outcome is encouraging, even though it might be deraile...
China to fund the defense of Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2021
On October 30 Dushanbe approved of a new Chinese-funded base on the border with Afghanistan. The government has offered to give full control of the extant Chinese base to Beijing and to make it rent-free in return for being given weapons gratis. That is according to confidential documents as repo...
Winter has come
TURKEY · Report · 31 Oct 2021 · 1 response
As Erdogan meets European leaders and President Biden on the sidelines of G20 Summit, his presumably declining health comes to fore for two reasons. First, the world press is now alerted to the notion and will scrutinize his behavior closely. Secondly, if Erdogan were to suffer another health eme...
The shekel appreciated sharply last week, probably due to less FX intervention by the BoI
ISRAEL · In Brief · 31 Oct 2021
The pace of shekel appreciation has accelerated The shekel appreciated by 1.5% last week (against the basket of currencies), and by 1.7% in October, as BOI intervention declined. Yet, Pressure for appreciation is likely to continue on strong fundamentals and FDI. Nevertheless, we maintain our inf...
Moldova and Russia makes gas deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Oct 2021
On October 29 Gazprom signed a deal with Moldova. It extends the current contract. Moldova had declared a state of emergency after Gazprom raised prices. Moldovia is a former Soviet country. It made its first ever gas deal with a country other than Russia in a desperate bid to secure affordable e...
Good news for The Bahamas. How to fund the key political promise of reducing VAT is answered very positively.
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2021
In his supplementary budget presentation on Wednesday afternoon, Prime Minister Philip "Brave Davis" announced that the promised reduction in VAT from 12 to 10% will be achieved in a revenue neutral way by eliminating the zero rating under VAT of a variety of items. He further claimed that the Mi...
Tajikistan sabre rattling towards the Taliban
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2021
Tajik troops have massed on the border with Afghanistan, Tajikistan's longest border. The poverty-stricken country of 5 million cannot beat Afghanistan, which has 32 million people. The Taliban has also inherited state-of-the-art military technology that the US left behind. Some say that the Tali...
Recovery and corruption
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Oct 2021
Costa Rica’s economic activity continues recovering, after COVID-19’s disruptive effects. External demand is the main driver, as shown by short-term indicators. In fact, most of the dynamism comes from the export-oriented free-trade zones, while the so-called “definitive regime” lags far behind. ...
The Court-ordered payments PEC may allow the government to guarantee additional payments for low-income people, next week a possible truck drivers’ strike may pose an issue, and the 5G auction may raise up to R$ 49.7 billion
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Oct 2021
There are rumors about the possibility of bringing back the emergency aid payments, as well as the state of emergency. The government could increase the value of the Bolsa Família by 20%, ensuring each beneficiary receives at least R$ 400. Voting on the PEC is scheduled for Wednesday. Regarding t...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi & Bahrain pledge net-zero, Kuwait oil capacity declines, Qatar plans citizenship reform
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Oct 2021 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia and Bahrain made 2060 net-zero pledges. * Saudi Arabia issued a record number of investment licenses in Q3, persuaded more multinationals to base their regional HQs in Riyadh and saw improved attendance at th...