GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On January 4 Belarus and Russia agreed to reopen Belarus' oil refineries. Belarus' state oil company Belneftkhim consented to renounce the supplier's premium that it has received on oil from Russia. Over 80% of Belarus' energy comes from Russia. Being cut off from this in midwinter would be very ...

The old EPP game is starting again

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2020

The European edition of Politico (politico.hu) wrote yesterday that according to an unnamed high-ranking representative of Fidesz, PM Orbán is seriously considering to pull Fidesz out of the European People's Party. A few days ago, a leading background figure in the Fidesz political family said o...

Gulf weekly: US assassinates Iranian general, Saudi GDP contracts

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Saudi GDP contracted by -0.5% y/y in Q3, a base effect due to high oil output a year before, but non-oil growth picked up to 4.3% (a five-year hig...

US killing of Iranian general could re-escalate Gulf tensions

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2020

Oil prices spiked by $2 after a US drone strike in Iraq assassinated one of Iran’s most powerful generals. The situation is evolving rapidly and puts at risk the Saudi-driven cycle of de-escalation that has seen an apparent pause in attacks on oil interests in the Gulf since September. There may ...

Turkey troop deployment in Libya irks Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jan 2020

On January 2 the Turkish Parliament voted to send troops to Libya to bolster the government there. This annoys Russia which is supporting the Libyan National Army under Khalifa Haftar. Turkey and Russia have co-operated fruitfully in Syria.

Outlook for the Gulf in 2020 (and review of 2019)

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2020

This report provides a summary of the key trends and events in the Gulf in 2019, including a review of some of our calls during the year, and outlines some of the key developments to watch for in 2020.

December inflation: stickiness continues

TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jan 2020

Consumer prices rose by 0.7%, m/m, in December, slightly higher than the consensus of 0.5%, with the 12-month rate hence ending the year at 11.8%, up from 10.6% in November and 8.6% in October. Producer prices increased also by 0.7% in the month, m/m, with the 12-month PPI inflation thus rising t...

What to expect in China 2020

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Jan 2020

The obvious question for 2020 is – can China maintain growth without causing a bank failure, widespread defaults, or massive unrest as a result of unemployment? So far, Beijing has done a pretty good job, although my working assumption is that there is significant unemployment in more remote reg...

OFZ: Retail flows to support the market

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jan 2020

The deceleration of inflation in Russia pushed down interest rates across the economy, including those of banking deposits. This trend has already fueled the demand of private individuals for financial markets, as they have already opened more than 3 mln accounts at the Moscow Exchange. We see hi...

Reconciling the incompatible

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 02 Jan 2020

The recently released set of Russia’s monthly statistics produced mixed impressions, not only because some segments of the economy performed quite well while others lagged behind, but also due to the fact that some statistical data look puzzling and are not immune from mutual contradictions. The ...

Robust budget execution signals GDP growth is steady

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jan 2020

Rosstat recently revealed that after a weak start to the year, y-o-y GDP growth accelerated to 1.7% in 3Q19 from 0.5% and 0.9% in 1Q19 and 2Q19. The Russian Finance Ministry reported that the federal budget balance turned negative in October amid stable revenue flow as spending started to catch u...

Strong profit tax collection hints at better growth

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jan 2020

Rosstat reported that w-o-w inflation remained at 0.1% for another week, consumer prices increased by a mere 0.2% from December 1 to 16, and inflation in 2019 as a whole is likely to stay around 3.1% or even lower, to fall well below 3.0% next month (say, to around 2.5%) and to stay around this ...

The EU penalty: negative corrections appeared on the BOP and fiscal accounts

HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jan 2020

We wish a happy new year to all of our readers!A EUR1423 million (cca. HUF460 billion) negative correction appeared on net transfers from the EU between the preliminary and the final versions of the Q3 2019 BOP, cutting the January-September net inflow number from 3.2% of GDP to just 1.8% of GDP....

Gas transit contract signed: no transit rate increase

UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Jan 2020

On December 30 Naftogaz and Gazprom signed a 5-year gas transit contract. A 65 bcm of natural gas will go through Ukrainian pipeline in 2020 and 40 bcm per year through 2021-2024. According to President Zelenskiy Facebook page Ukraine will receive $7 billion for pumping the agreed volume of natur...

Russia and Ukraine sign energy deal

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jan 2020

On December 31 Ukraine and Russia agreed a 5 year contract for gas transit via Ukraine. Gazprom is the Russian state gas company that signed the deal. This is a gain for both countries and another sign for optimism regarding the conflict. The deal was clinched at the 11th hour. Russia was keen to...