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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

KUWAIT/OMAN: Moody’s places on review for downgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Mar 2020

Moody's put Oman and Kuwait on review for downgrades given the drop in oil prices during March, the coronavirus crisis and underlying concerns about governance in both states. We think it is highly likely that Oman will be downgraded, although Kuwait may just avoid it.

Economy is paralyzed after COVID-19 cases skyrocket
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 31 Mar 2020

The Ministry of Public Health reported on March 29th that the number of COVID-19 cases had reached 859, up 140 from the previous day. The case rate has surged, and 39 people have died. Congress has declared a state of emergency, giving the president exceptional powers for 25 days. The governm...

The CBRT gears up for QE
TURKEY · Report · 31 Mar 2020

In the face of rapidly worsening economic activity, the CBRT introduced a new set of measures today, which essentially gives the Bank new ways of providing TL liquidity by way of expanding the size of its government securities portfolio, and the range of securities acceptable as collateral (see i...

China virus check – week ending March 28
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 31 Mar 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Rising coal use in the power industry and iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) Traffic congestion continues its perplexing decline for the second week. 3) Metro rail traffic is growing, but one city we track, Nanjing, showed de...

Keynes vs. Thanos
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Mar 2020

Coronavirus cases in Colombia have been steadily rising, to 702 as of March 29th. The early rise has been faster than in Italy, Spain or United States – but seems to be moving in tandem with the rest of the region. Government experts have stated that, under a no-measures scenario, Colombia could...

Land market approved, turn for the IMF move
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Mar 2020

A historical day! Late in the night, already on March 31st, parliament voted in a law on the land market. As we wrote yesterday the design of land market has been substantially reshuffled in light of COVID-19 crisis. The market will be launched from July 1st, 2021 (previously, October 2020). From...

Institutional crisis continues to be fueled
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2020

Despite the increase of coronavirus cases in the country, the institutional crisis between the president and the governors continues and is even affecting President Bolsonaro’s cabinet. On Sunday, the president – who has seen several of his advisers and assistants infected by the virus – took to ...

Economics: A lowered outlook on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 30 Mar 2020 · 2 responses

A review of the economic news published in March reinforces the image of a recessionary economy at a time when official policy leaves Mexico particularly exposed to the unprecedented challenges posed globally. Well before oil prices crashed, and COVID 19 and its potential ramifications began to e...

Politics: AMLO approval slips, perceptions flip
MEXICO · Report · 30 Mar 2020

The huge margin of approval enjoyed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador throughout his first year in office has vanished, according to the latest GEA-ISA poll. The president should find those results especially troubling considering the wide edge he enjoyed throughout the spring and early autumn. Furt...

Congress's fight against the coronavirus crisis and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2020

The deadline for creation of political parties and party affiliations ahead of the October elections is April 4. Representative Rodrigo Maia may conclude a constitutional amendment proposal on the “war budget”, which would give the government greater flexibility to tackle the crisis created by th...

COVID-19 hit heavily
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Mar 2020

Just one day after our previous report was released, Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced the first two cases of coronavirus in Jakarta. The first two cases were part of a cluster in a dancing club where a foreigner had recently been. Apparently, the foreigner was infected by the COVID-19 v...

Parliament approves anti-Kolomoyskiy bill, new Finance Minister appointed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Mar 2020

Parliament has voted in so called anti-Kolomoyskiy law from the ‘list-to-do’ of the IMF. The law blocks return of nationalized Privatbank to its former owners Igor Kolomoyskiy and Genadiy Boholyubov. It was only first reading and more work should be done but it’s already a great step forward. Res...

The little we know: an overview of bits and pieces
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Mar 2020

The Covid-19 epidemic has still failed to explode in Hungary (thanks God). The cumulative number of total cases was 447 this morning, and it is slowly building up day by day, without any notable acceleration. What is accelerating, though, is the number of virus tests (currently at 13301), given t...

Limits to China’s fiscal stimulus
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Mar 2020 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The debate about 2020 growth expectations continues to intensify in policymaking circles, with CICC reducing its 2020 GDP growth forecast last week from 6.1 percent to 2.6 percent. • While many officials continue to call for China to return as quickl...

The Recession Depth and Fiscal Consequences
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Mar 2020

There are two possible reactions to the propagation of the COVID-19: impose social distancing (lockdown), which attenuates the loss of lives; or allow it to evolve until producing “herd immunity”, which happens when the number of people who have been infected is large enough that the virus cannot...

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