GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Leading private sector representatives committed themselves to invest roughly 43 billion dollars in 147 projects under a National Private Sector Infrastructure Investment Agreement plan the government announced on November 26. Many sources appeared to confuse it with the government’s six-year Nat...

Third Quarter GDP and Growth Forecast Update

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Dec 2019

The GDP numbers for the third quarter clearly showed that the economic recovery is slowly gaining traction and that the bases for continued growth are more solid. On the demand side, the highlights continue to be the contributions from household consumption and investments, and the outlook is for...

The BoI purchases 1.3bn USD in November; rate cut less likely

ISRAEL · Report · 09 Dec 2019

The Bank of Israel purchased 1.3bn USD in November, signaling that FX intervention is currently the preferred monetary tool, and not lower rates. The fiscal deficit has stabilized at around 3.7% of GDP (LTM) since Q219 on some tighter spending and steady tax revenues. The Business Confidence Surv...

The cabinet of Alberto Fernández

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 08 Dec 2019 · 1 response

In line with the electoral campaign, in which Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) kept a relatively low profile, the recently announced cabinet, that will be sworn in on Tuesday, December 10, reflects to a large extent the signature of Alberto Fernandez (AF), more than that of the elected vice-p...

Germany expels Russian diplomats

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2019

On December 4 Germany expelled two Russian diplomats. Germany suspects the diplomats assisted in the assassination of a Georgian citizen, Zemilkhan Khangoshvili, in Germany. A Russian has been charged with Khangoshvili's murder. Khangoshvili had been labeled a terrorist by Russia. Under Russian l...

Russian military said to be active in Libya

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2019

On December 6 the US announced that a US drone shot down in Libya recently was destroyed by the Russian Army. This will raise tension between the United States and Russia. The US wants the wreckage back but the Russian government denies all involvement and says it has no idea where the wreckage i...

Gulf weekly: OPEC cuts, Aramco IPOs, Qatar hosts rivals and Qaboos has cancer tests

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Aramco raised $25.6bn in its IPO, but foreign investors (mainly Gulf SWF) only provided $2bn. * Qatar’s Emir was invited to the Gulf Summit in Ri...

Monthly inflation preview: the headline rate is set to rise markedly

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Dec 2019

The November CPI-infation data is expected on Tuesday, December 10. In essence, the yoy headline rate is set to rise significantly on a fuel-price-related base effect, but no policy reaction whatsoever is likely to come from the MNB.More specifically, we expect the yoy headline rate to jump to 3....

Magic in the air: the IMF reports on staff-level agreement with Ukraine

UKRAINE · In Brief · 08 Dec 2019

An unexpectedly excellent piece of news came yesterday from Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director of the IMF. The decision was apparently made after a telephone call with President Zelenskiy. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, most likely, told the Managing Director something what the IMF mission did...

Russia agrees to minor oil production cuts

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2019

On December 6 Russia agreed to reduce oil production in conjunction with OPEC . A meeting took place at Vienna. The 24 OPEC members produce 50% of the world's oil. Russia is not part of OPEC + and generally goes along with OPEC decisions. OPEC decided on a production reduction. The aim is to rais...

Russian law requires Russian made apps on domestically produced devices

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2019

On December 1 Putin signed a law that obliges all phones, computers etc... manufactured in Russia to have Russian made software and apps. This law was not made in concert with business. It takes effect July 1 2020. The apps to be pre-installed are not named.The Presidential Administration likely ...

Ukraine allows private companies to make alcohol

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2019

On December 2 the Ukrainian Parliament (Rada) voted to end the state monopoly on the production of liquor. This law was a hangover from the Soviet era. The law also provides for the total liberalization of alcohol exports.The state liquor company Ukrspirit is due to be privatized. It has 41 facto...

Duque’s epiphany

COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Dec 2019

The fate of the government’s tax reform proposal was, up until the beginning of the last week of November, a big unknown. It seems however, the worst part is over. During an infrastructure congress in Cartagena on November 21st, Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla spoke optimistically about...

China's understated global loans

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 06 Dec 2019

Three economists in July published a paper at the Kiel Institute in Germany arguing that China’s international lending is understated by a significant margin. The authors, Carmen Reinhart, Sebastian Horn, and Christoph Trebesch, arrive at a figure of US$4.6 trillion, which includes holdings of so...

Manila’s water problems

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Dec 2019

On Tuesday, Manila’s business elites found themselves at the receiving end of President Duterte’s latest tirade. The cause? A ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in Singapore for government to pay Manila Water, one of the metropolis’s two water concessionaires, P7.39 billion (~$145 milli...