GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Turkish economy grew by 0.9%, y/y, in the third quarter of 2019, broadly in line with expectations, but sequential growth, which is a lot more important to monitor nowadays (given the strong base effects from last year) was somewhat weaker than envisaged, with GDP expanding by 0.4% over the p...

Politics: Taking score after a full year of AMLO

MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2019

As President Andrés Manuel López Obrador celebrates his first year in office, there is an increasingly obvious disconnect between expectations and reality. The administration has scored some significant accomplishments, such as a major increase in the federal minimum wage and a positive overhaul ...

The BoI avoids a cut, preferring FX intervention

ISRAEL · Report · 02 Dec 2019

The BoI has signaled that a rate cut is currently off the table (unless the economy deteriorates), with FX intervention the preferred tool. Recent economic indicators point to fairly stable growth, and the BoI Composite Index witnessed a slight acceleration in recent months. In politics, despite ...

Gulf weekly: Qatar doubles hydrocarbon reserves and talks with Saudi

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Aramco’s IPO has received $74bn in domestic orders but only $3bn internationally so far. * Qatar sharply hiked its gas and oil reserves and upsiz...

Russian missile test in Arctic

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2019

On November 30 Russia tested a hypersonic missile in the Russian Arctic. It was an air to ground missile called Kinjal which is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. The main Russian news agency reported the news. Clearly the Russian Armed Forces want people to know. Moscow views the Arctic as i...

Islamist mitosis, growth obsessions

TURKEY · Report · 01 Dec 2019

The split in the venerable Islamist movement ought to become official before the end of the year, as former AKP heavyweights Ali Babacan and Prof. Ahmet Davutoglu formally launch new parties. They are not to be underestimated, because they represent frustrated voter segments in AKP. Furthermore, ...

Zelenskiy loses support: policy changes are looming

UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Dec 2019

Everyone is discussing the slump of Zelenskiy's popularity. On November 27th, KIIS released fresh polls on political support. President Zelenskiy lost 21ppt just in the three months since September.His rating is still incredibly high – 52% – however, rumors say the president was extremely disappo...

Indonesia: Ahok comes back into the picture

INDONESIA · Report · 29 Nov 2019

Ahok (the nickname of Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, the former governor of Jakarta Metropolitan) was just recently promoted as the Chairman of the Board of Pertamina, the Indonesian state-owned oil company, literally the largest company in Indonesia. This was a very high-profile promotion by the govern...

On the Central Bank intervention in the FX market

CHILE · In Brief · 29 Nov 2019

Yesterday the Central Bank of Chile announced a foreign exchange intervention plan of up to US$ 20,000 million, US$ 10,000 million of sales in the spot market and US$ 10,000 million of sales of hedging instruments. International reserves are approximately US$ 40,000 million. The statement publish...

Notes from Ningbo

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Nov 2019

We just spent three days in Ningbo, China’s largest port city, 200 km from Shanghai, visiting finance companies, banks, and regulators. Four quick conclusions: 1) The trade war is having less economic impact, even on a port city, than one would expect. 2) The crackdown on shadow banking and un...

US alleges Russia covered up chemical attack in Syria

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Nov 2019

On November 28 the United States claimed that Russia had helped to cover up the use of prohibited toxic weapons in Syria. The US has accused Russia of doing just that many times before. The Organization for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) had found against Russia. However, two OPCW scie...

Ukraine and Russia close to prisoner exchange

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2019

On November 28 Russia and Ukraine agreed to exchange prisoners with Russia freeing 100 in return for 250. Strictly speaking it is the pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine who are releasing prisoners and not Russia herself. In September 2019 the two countries exchanged prisoners. Another prisoner exchang...

Car wash operation

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2019

Following the votes of the rapporteur and the reviewer, the President of the Eighth Panel of the TRF 4th Region, Judge Thompson Flores, in closing today's trial, voted preliminarily against the annulment of the sentence on the case of the Atibaia ranch based on the order in which the final allega...

QATAR: Soccer and a summit could resolve Gulf dispute within weeks

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Nov 2019

* We are more optimistic than we have been in two years for a breakthrough in the Gulf dispute. * Football teams from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and UAE have just arrived in Doha for the Gulf Cup. * If their citizens also attend as fans and the tone is friendly, this will build positive momentum. *...

Cyprus removes citizenship from Russian oligarch

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2019

On November 26 it was announced that Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska has had his Cypriot citizenship revoked. Deripaska owns an aluminium company which was subject to US sanctions. The sanctions have been eased off over the past year.In 2013 Cyprus began a citizenship by investment scheme. Cit...