GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The economy is growing slowly but steadily (3.25% through September according to the Monthly Index of Economic Activity). The 2020 budget is consistent with this pattern and therefore will not be expansive, given the limitations of the Fiscal Responsibility Law (a 2.75% deficit ratio for 2020). T...

Strikes, demonstrations on the radar and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Nov 2019

The voting agenda in the Senate includes a bill that allows for arrests following a conviction by a higher court. On Tuesday, the TSE decides whether it will accept electronic signatures for the creation of political parties. On Wednesday, the STF resumes analysis on access to confidential data. ...

Economics: Risks for 2020 public finance stability

MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2019

The problems posed by the strict austerity the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has pursued as it strives to sustain its deficit and public debt targets were on clear display not only in public finance results through the first nine months of the year, but also in the 2020 federal spendi...

A way forward fraught with risk

VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Nov 2019

With the Maduro regime learning to live with sanctions but needing some stability to endure and the Guaidó-led opposition unable to force Maduro to step down, there is space for both sides to negotiate a renewal of National Electoral Council (CNE) members and the organization of 2020 National Ass...

Politics: AMLO sets his sights on the Electoral Authority

MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2019

In a pattern that has become apparent to most observers of the recent rise of populist regimes and the manner in which they manage to dismantle democratic institutions and entrench themselves in power, during its first year in power the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been...

EL SALVADOR: They still love him – weak economy and all

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 Nov 2019

El Salvador experienced deflation in October, for the third month in a row, while core inflation has remained at virtually zero for the past 12 months. Economic activity continued to gradually slow, as merchandise exports fell, and foreign remittances and lending to the private sector were depres...

QATAR: Gas reserve/expansion hike is strongly credit positive

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 25 Nov 2019

At a press conference in Doha today, the Minister of Energy, Saad al-Kaabi, made the unexpected and dramatic announcement that new appraisals have extended the range of North Field, including onshore. North Field was already scoped as the world's largest and wettest gasfield (with much higher lev...

Russia tries to increase RUB transactions

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2019

On November 25 major Russian business newspaper RBK reported that the Ministry of Economic Development is aiming to increase the % of foreign transactions done in RUB from 20% at present to 30% by 2024. In 2019 14% of exports are paid for in RUB and these are mostly to former Soviet countries. 30...

Despite weak inflation, a strong shekel and soft underlying growth, rates remain on hold

ISRAEL · Report · 25 Nov 2019

Despite weak inflation, a strong shekel and soft underlying growth, rates remain on hold. * Headline inflation is running at 0.4% y/y, and core at 0.5% in October. * The shekel has appreciated by 2.3% (against the basket) this month, and remained stable since the last rate decision. * Des...

Potential convergence of external and domestic risks, steady economic and political deterioration

MEXICO · Presentation · 25 Nov 2019

This presentation provides a thorough summary of the political and economic challenges facing Mexico in the medium term. In 2020, economic risks may converge, creating difficult conditions for Mexico. The biggest economic challenges for Mexico in 2020 are US growth and the government reaction fun...

A gradual slope

PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 25 Nov 2019

Recent macroeconomic data show encouraging signs of normalizing domestic activity. Inflation and interest rates have dropped, public sector outlays appear to be getting back on track and work on reform bills that have held back investments are proceeding apace. We forecast a gradual uphill for GD...

Rates remain on hold today

ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Nov 2019

Policy rates remained stable but the loosening bias was maintained. The summarizing statement was clear:"it will be necessary to leave the interest rate at its current level for a prolonged period or to reduce it in order to support a process at the end of which inflation will stabilize around th...

Gazprom sells USD 3 billion shares

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2019

On November 22 Gazprom sold USD 3 billion in shares to an unknown buyer. Gazprom sold 3.6% of its shares. CEO Alexey Miller announced earlier in 2019 that there was a share offloading scheme. There was a 7 hour window on November 21 when people could bid for shares and almost 500 people applied. ...

Gulf weekly: Kuwait gets new PM and Aramco IPO cut in half

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Nov 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Having scaled back its IPO, Aramco cancelled its international roadshow. * Kuwait’s emir sacked two feuding ministers (including his son) and appoi...

Russia might be banned from the Olympics

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2019

On November 22 the World Anti Doping Agency (WADA) announced that it recommended that Russia be regarded as non-compliant. The decision has not yet been reached. WADA stated that there was proof of data from the Russian Anti Doping Agency (ADA) being tampered with. On December 9 WADA's executive ...