GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Inflation slowed down a little more sharply in October than we had expected, to 17 percent month-on-month from 63 percent in September. We had forecast 21 percent. Consumer prices rose by 4,916 percent in the first ten months of the year, for a year-on-year inflation rate of 38,906 percent in Oct...

Economics: Pemex’s ever slippery slope

MEXICO · Report · 11 Nov 2019

Pemex’s third quarter results confirmed some of our worst fears as the national oil company’s operational and financial health continues to deteriorate despite efforts by the Mexican government and Pemex management to stem the decline. Clearly the administration’s strategy is not up to the task a...

Pension Reform will be promulgated

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Nov 2019 · 1 response

Pension Reform will be promulgated on Tuesday. The Senate should conclude the first round of the Parallel Pension Proposal the same day, including states and municipalities. The government should sent its Administrative Reform proposal to the Lower House. On Wednesday and Thursday, Brasília wi...

Russia-Saudi Arabia relations: cold meets warm

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 11 Nov 2019

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Russia are warmer now than at any time in the past. President Putin recently visited Saudi, where he was very well received. While the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia are not natural friends, in the past couple of years they have developed a remarkably cordi...

Politics: Mexico in a weak position to face US demands

MEXICO · Report · 11 Nov 2019

It is still unclear why gunmen brutally murdered three women and six children in the northern border state of Sonora, but their deaths on November 4 have broad political and security implications, both domestically and on the level of Mexico-US relations. Beyond the tragic details of this cas...

Transition: What to expect from AF?

ARGENTINA · Report · 11 Nov 2019

Will Alberto Fernandez (AF) be able to lead the Peronist/Kirchnerist coalition with a certain degree of freedom, or will he struggle with requests from his political mentor, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, or her radicalized followers? Ever since Argentina’s return to democracy, in the early 80s,...

The risks and rewards of index inclusion in China’s bond market

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Nov 2019

Changes in the Bloomberg Barclays index of bonds will expand foreign participation in China’s domestic bond market by $120 - $150 billion by 2020. Foreign ownership of Chinese financial instruments will become a wider part of both the Chinese financial system and the retirement funds of western i...

High CPI and robust growth likely to delay easing

ISRAEL · Report · 11 Nov 2019

The adjusted fiscal deficit in October moved slightly lower to 3.6% GDP LTM. Wage growth has moderated, weakening inflationary pressure. We expect inflation to reach 0.5% m/m (0.5% y/y) in October, at the high end of consensus. In politics, Lieberman set conditions for forming a unity government,...

More opening measures amid trade war

CHINA · Report · 11 Nov 2019

The economy continues to weaken. GDP was up 6% y/y in Q3, down 0.2 pps from Q2, and down 0.5 pps from Q3 2018. Investment was up 4.7% y/y, down 0.8 pps from Q2. Imports were down -2.9% y/y in Q3, down 5.2 pps from Q2, and down 21.9 pps from Q3 2018. Exports were up 3.9% y/y, down 1.8 pps and ...

Monetary Policy – The SELIC in the Easing Cycle Final Phases

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Nov 2019

With 12-month inflation significantly below the lower bound of the target interval, all the core IPCA rates highly stable and below the target, inflation expectations anchored, and the economy still lethargic, the Central Bank reduced the SELIC rate to 5% and indicated that at the next COPOM meet...

Bribery allegations against Russian bank mar trade with Africa

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2019

On November 8 a court in New York heard a case about Credit Suisse that led to the defendant, Andrew Pearse, making accusations against VTB Group. The bank is owned USD 535 million by Mozambique. Makram Abboud, a VTB executive, is said to have taken USD 2 million in bribes. In 2013 Credit Suisse ...

Gulf weekly: Aramco woos investors and Adu Dhabi hikes its oil and gas reserves

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Nov 2019

Aramco released its prospectus and continued efforts to woo and cajole IPO investors, but questions remain. Abu Dhabi announced revised up its oil & gas reserves by the most in over 30 years, jumping to 6th place globally. Kuwait experienced rare protests (inspired by Iraq and Lebanon) and Qatar ...

Russia relaxed about terrorism case against it

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2019

On November 8 Ukraine filed a case in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Russia. Ukraine says that Russia has funded terrorism which is against international law. The pro-Russian rebels are not fighting for a sovereign state. Ukraine's argument is that unlawful violence is terrorism...

Trump associate trying to buy Ukrainian aerospace company

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2019

On November 6 it emerged that Erik Prince is negotiating to buy a Ukrainian aerospace manufacturer. The US is striving to prevent the company from being bought by the Chinese. The company is Motor Sich. Erik Prince is an informal Trump adviser and he is the founder of Blackwater the private secur...

October inflation figures represent a moderate surprise on the upside

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

CPI-inflation for October came out today at 0.6% mom, 2.9% yoy, the latter up from 2.8% in the previous month. The analyst consensus for the yoy rate was in the range of 2.7-2.8%, and our forecast was 2.7%. This moderate negative surprise was mainly blamed on food prices (up 0.8% mom on the globa...