GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

GDP growth in 2019 reached 3.3% (1.3% per capita)Drivers: Private consumption increased by 3.9%, public consumption 4.1% and service exports 9.0%.Weak growth: industrial exports up only 1.5%, and investments in fixed assets up only 0.3%.The public debt/GDP ratio is expected to decline in 2019 (be...

Belarus and Russia reach oil deal

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2020

On January 4 Belarus and Russia agreed to reopen Belarus' oil refineries. Belarus' state oil company Belneftkhim consented to renounce the supplier's premium that it has received on oil from Russia. Over 80% of Belarus' energy comes from Russia. Being cut off from this in midwinter would be very ...

The old EPP game is starting again

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2020

The European edition of Politico (politico.hu) wrote yesterday that according to an unnamed high-ranking representative of Fidesz, PM Orbán is seriously considering to pull Fidesz out of the European People's Party. A few days ago, a leading background figure in the Fidesz political family said o...

Turkey troop deployment in Libya irks Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jan 2020

On January 2 the Turkish Parliament voted to send troops to Libya to bolster the government there. This annoys Russia which is supporting the Libyan National Army under Khalifa Haftar. Turkey and Russia have co-operated fruitfully in Syria.

Outlook for the Gulf in 2020 (and review of 2019)

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2020

This report provides a summary of the key trends and events in the Gulf in 2019, including a review of some of our calls during the year, and outlines some of the key developments to watch for in 2020.

December inflation: stickiness continues

TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jan 2020

Consumer prices rose by 0.7%, m/m, in December, slightly higher than the consensus of 0.5%, with the 12-month rate hence ending the year at 11.8%, up from 10.6% in November and 8.6% in October. Producer prices increased also by 0.7% in the month, m/m, with the 12-month PPI inflation thus rising t...

Eurasian Economic Union: FTAs to revitalize a stagnated project?

CIS POLITICS · Report · 31 Dec 2019

The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU or EEU) is the latest and most comprehensive of decades-long attempts to use economic interdependence in the Eurasian continent, to keep former Soviet Republics under the sphere of influence of Moscow. Today, the EEU is a limited Customs Union with a Common Exter...

Ending the year with optimism

INDONESIA · Report · 30 Dec 2019

In his speech during the Annual Bankers' Dinner recently hosted by Bank Indonesia, President Jokowi appeared confident that the Indonesian economy will remain resilient in the face of the slowdown of the global economy. At the same time, he emphasized the need to look for new resources to keep th...

Growth slowly recovers

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 30 Dec 2019

Preliminary figures indicate that economic activity has continued to slowly recover. The monthly indicator of economic activity for September and October estimated real GDP growth at 5.1% and 5.2%, respectively (to August, the monthly average was 4.7%). We expect that November and December figure...

How different could 2020 be?

PERU · Report · 27 Dec 2019

The electoral campaign to replace the dissolved Congress seems to have failed to gain momentum. The latest polls find that nearly half of voters haven’t decided who to vote for in the January 26th contest. While some surprises could emerge, the results will most probably favor President Martín Vi...

Gulf weekly: Khashoggi trial concludes, Divided Zone oil restart is agreed

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. As of today, we are shifting to a Friday publication schedule in an effort to provide swifter coverage than our previous Sunday schedule. Headlines include: * The tria...

Stick and carrot

ECUADOR · Report · 24 Dec 2019

After the unsettling riots of last October, the Assembly has given stick and carrot to the government. First, a majority of over 70 votes denied the proposed economic bill sent by the Ministry of Finance as urgent at the beginning of November. Albeit there were political motives behind this den...

Economics: Ending 2019 on a low note

MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2019

The economic indicators and news from the final weeks of 2019 added to the general impression of a softening economy, with especially troubling declines in both consumer spending and private investment, even as the retreat in industrial production deepened. Gross fixed investment accelerated its ...

The Cabinet decided today to withdraw a controversial proposal for Constitutional reform and called for a “national debate” sponsored by the UNDP (United Nations).

PANAMA · In Brief · 23 Dec 2019

The reform was a leading campaign issue by all the parties in the recent presidential contest. Cortizo and the PRD party opted for following a long process of modifications established in the Constitution: two approvals by the Legislative Assembly plus a national referendum. The draft of the init...

Politics: Potential democratic institutional demise

MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2019

The latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey coincides with all the other polling data published in the past month on the seemingly contradictory phenomenon of President López Obrador's continuing to enjoy strong yet somewhat weaker approval numbers at the same time as the government he presides over gets...