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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: The risks of further rate cuts
MEXICO · Report · 17 Feb 2020

Banco de México’s decision last week to implement its fifth consecutive rate cut in as many meetings validates the fact that interest rates remained high in light of inflation estimates and global monetary policy trends. In the statement that accompanied the rate announcement, Banxico cited conti...

Economic Activity: The Real Deal
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Feb 2020

Economic activity finished 2019 with another disappointing result: the IBC-Br fell by 0.3% in December, after decreasing by 0.1% in November. Despite these clearly negative results, the economy expanded by 0.5% in the fourth quarter, slightly behind the figure for the third quarter (0.6%). We do ...

Negative inflation y/y in Q1 will put pressure on the MPC to act
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Feb 2020

Inflation in January (0.3% y/y) came in at the low end of consensus, with core inflation moderating to 0.35% y/y. Declining inflation y/y is expected to continue in the coming months (-0.3% in March), which will put pressure on the MPC. Our inflation forecast for the NTM stands at 1.1%, of which ...

Electoral board calls for new municipal elections
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Feb 2020

This afternoon, the Central Electoral Board formally convened new municipal elections for Sunday, March 15. The board indicated that they will be held exclusively with paper ballots. This helps to de-escalate tensions and the electoral crisis. The main political actors are clearly interested in t...

Municipal elections cancelled; electoral crisis unfolding
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 16 Feb 2020

This Sunday, the day when municipal elections were scheduled to be held, the unexpected happened: after 11am, the electoral board decided to cancel the elections. The decision was made due to the serious problems that affected the electronic voting system. The president of the electoral board ind...

Turkey and Russia argue over Syria
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2020

On February 15 Turkey claimed to be honoring its agreements to calm the situation in Syria. 13 Turkish soldiers were killed by the Syrian Army in fighting around Idlib in the last two weeks. Russia is Syria's firmest ally. Russia claims to be urging restraint on Syria. Turkey is occupying Syrian ...

Plan to massively increase Russian Arctic oil production
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2020

On February 11 Igor Sechin visited Putin. They discussed the Vostok oil project. Sechin has been one of Putin's closest friends for almost 30 years.Sechin manages Rosneft, which is state owned. He wants to pump oil out of the north Urals region and send it by pipeline to the Taymyr Peninsula on R...

Weekly highlights: Negative inflation y/y in Q1 will put pressure on MPC to act
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Feb 2020

Highlights:Inflation in January came in at the low end of expectations. Inflation reached -0.4% and declined to 0.3% y/y from 0.6% in Dec.Core inflation also declined to 0.35% y/y from 0.64%.Headline inflation is expected to decline further in coming months: to 0.0% y/y in February and -0.3% y/y ...

Another critical two weeks
TURKEY · Report · 16 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Turkey is at war with the Syrian National Army in Idlib, with both sides swearing not to back off an inch. Only Putin can avert a bloody war, but he is very unlikely to act on behalf of Turkey, unless President Erdogan puts the threat of breaking up the relationship and returning the S-400 anti-m...

A Valentine Day's present from S&P
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Feb 2020

Quite unexpectedly, S&P raised the outlook for its BBB long-term sovereign rating for Hungary from Stable to Positive yesterday. The agency based its decision primarily on the country's robust growth performance. This expressly hints at the possibility of an upgrade within the next 24 months if p...

Expect payment system to gum up on March 22
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Feb 2020

On 22 March 2020, General License 15, issued a year earlier by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to allow Mastercard, Visa, American Express, Western Union, and Moneygram to continue to transact with Banco de Venezuela and Banco Bicentenario, will expire. I...

Gulf weekly: Bahrain’s deficit falls but Oman’s is flat, the US Senate opposes war with Iran
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Feb 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include: * Bahrain’s 2019 deficit fell to 4.7% of GDP. * However, Oman’s deficit remained flat, at 9.0%, and it was put on negative outlook by CI. * OPEC trimmed its oil demand forecast be...

Navigating rough terrain
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 14 Feb 2020

Economic forecasting in a time of a global health emergency is an especially humbling task. Not only do we know that we don’t know how the crisis will evolve, and over what time period, but we also know that we don’t know how economic agents will behave, in response not only to the crisis, but al...

Russia Economics Conference Call - Growth to strengthen amid a more proactive economic policy of the new government
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Feb 2020

Our Russia Economic conference call replay,​ Growth to strengthen amid a more proactive economic policy of the new government, featuring Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin. Evgeny Gavrilenko and Alexander Kudrin are recognized among the top analysts of Russia's macroeconomic trends. In our ...

South Africa’s SONA 2020: President Ramaphosa strikes a careful balance
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Feb 2020

President Ramaphosa delivered his 2020 State of the Nation Address (SONA) against a fairly dramatic background. Within the Parliament, the opposition party, EFF, staged a rowdy and disruptive scene to demand the sacking of Minister Gordhan - the Minister of State-owned Enterprises. (SOEs). The EF...

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