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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Gulf weekly: S&P downgrades Kuwait and Oman, and virus lockdowns intensify
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Mar 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil remained very weak, but a grand US-Saudi-Russia deal is unlikely to happen. * Coronavirus cases more than tripled in Saudi and U...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: GCC - Navigating Gulf uncertainty amidst the oil crash and corona crisis
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Mar 2020

Justin Alexander provides an update on the GCC countries amid the oil and coronavirus crises, with a focus on the collapse of the OPEC+ deal, fiscal scenarios, and the impact on each of the GCC countries individually. Longer-term trends are worrisome for Saudi, and Oman and Bahrain are likely to ...

Cabinet suggests 5% of GDP deficit amid fierce fight between “no default” and “let’s default” camps
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Mar 2020

The Cabinet has submitted an amended budget to the parliament, Oleksiy Honcharenko, an MP from European Solidarity of Petro Poroshenko, wrote on his Facebook page yesterday. New deficit was outlined at the level of UAH 202 billion or near 4.7% of GDP. Funds within the budget will be re-distribute...

China seed store check – March 27
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Mar 2020

Here’s an update on a local check of villages that are blocking, partially closing, or keeping open access to their towns for seed shipments. This is an indication of how much economic activity is returning to normal, and whether there will be a delay in spring planting.

Could China’s banks handle a large stimulus package?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Mar 2020

The current debate is about how China can engineer a V-shaped recovery when (and if) the virus abates. What shape will a stimulus take and what will the impact be on China’s long-term economic trajectory? I have argued that the state has been disciplined about avoiding a large-scale stimulus meas...

The Panamanian government successfully funded the budget needs for the health and social expenditures required to battle the virus
PANAMA · Report · 27 Mar 2020

In the absence of monetary stimuli in a dollarized economy, the Ministry of Economics and Finance is giving the final touches to the pre-funding package of public sector expenditures for additional subsidies to poor families (cash and in-kind transfers). The MEF successfully floated US$ 2.5 billi...

Russian banks lending
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Mar 2020

Sberbank and VTB announced on March 26 that they are lending money to small businesses to pay salaries. In some cases these will be zero % interest. First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov helped persuade the banks to do so. The loans will be issued on March 30 and last for up to 6 months.

Forecasting in a time of radical uncertainty (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Mar 2020

What we know so far: Significant uncertainty exists as the virus continues to spread at immense cost to human lives. Infections continue to rise, health systems are struggling to cope and necessary lockdowns have been imposed in many developed and developing countries to slow the virus’s transmis...

S&P downgrades Kuwait and Oman, affirms rest of GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 26 Mar 2020

In the first coordinated set of rating actions since the onset of the twin crises of coronavirus and the oil crash, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Kuwait to AA- and Oman to BB- (Negative outlook) and also lowered Bahrain’s outlook to Stable (from positive) but affirmed its B+ rating, the lowest in ...

Bolsonaro “embraces” the defense of the economy, and Congress articulates its agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro continues to send signals to his electoral base. Today, March 26, he signed a decree that makes religious activities of any nature part of the list of essential activities amid the coronavirus crisis. The presidential decree also includes lottery houses, which also perfor...

Russo-Belarusian diplomatic relations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2020

In this piece we give a detailed discussion of the current state of Russo-Belarusian diplomatic relations, touching on speculation surrounding the formation of the Union State, the oil dispute relating to the “tax maneuver”, and Minsk’s current position in relation to Russia and the EAEU in light...

South African government’s efforts to cushion the economy from the effects of Covid-19
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Mar 2020 · 1 response

The South African government has been announcing numerous measures aimed at mitigating the profound effects of Covid-19 the country is already experiencing. The South African Reserve Bank has become a major role player in these efforts. The bank began with a 100 basis point cut in interest rates ...

Government statements on Covid-19, unemployment, GDP growth and fiscal plan
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2020

In recent days, the MNB appeared as the dominant player in public appearances, but it seems now that the government is taking back the initiative. In fresh news, cabinet minister Gulyás estimated the number of those who had already lost their jobs at 30-40 thousands, which is 0.7-0.9% of total em...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: Ecuador update amid the coronavirus
ECUADOR · Report · 26 Mar 2020

Live from Quito, Magdalena Barreiro gives an update on Ecuador's response to the coronavirus pandemic and also provides an in-depth look at the country's financing needs and liquidity situation.

Bold health, social and job protection measures in response to the COVID-19 impacts
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 26 Mar 2020

Last night President Medina addressed the Nation again. He delivered a very heartfelt, humble speech that called for solidarity and responsibility. His words were very well received by the majority, including critics of the government. In the speech, the president announced new health actions and...

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