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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: The public financial squeeze ahead
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Based on the report on public finance and debt results for the fourth quarter and for full-year 2019, as well as the way the current year is shaping up, the near term points to the likelihood of a further deterioration of public finance even as the government touts its select accomplishments to d...

No new FX swaps sold at today's tender, once again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2020

The stock of the MNB's FX swaps sold to domestic banks is set to fall by HUF 64bn to HUF 1991bn on Wednesday, as the Bank decided to reject all bids at today's tender, the same way as it did a week earlier. At the latest date for which data is available, i.e. on February 9, total HUF liquidity wa...

Taxation of profits and dividends on the agenda once again and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2020

Congress meets on February 11 to analyze presidential vetoes that reinforce the Compulsory Budget, giving legislators control of the execution of R$ 42.6 billion in amendments. The Joint Committee on Tax Reform will be created this week. The Senate holds a confirmation hearing for Nestor Forster,...

The Decline of the Long-Term Real Interest Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Feb 2020

In this report, we examine the effects of the decline of the long-term real interest rate, which besides a transitory component caused by the decrease of the SELIC rate, has a highly persistent component, the decline of the neutral real interest rate. The consequences of the falling long-term rea...

Politics: Congressional priorities this session
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2020

With all major political actors likely to start filtering all their calculations through the prism of next year’s midterm elections beginning this fall, the governing camp has a pressing need to get as many bills and constitutional reforms passed during the current session of Congress in order to...

Ethnic fighting kills 10 in Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2020

On February 9 fighting between indigenous Kazakhs and ethnic minority Dungan people led to 10 deaths and scores of injuries. The incident took place in a small town near the border with Kyrgyzstan. The Dungans migrated from China over a century ago. Ethnic Kazakhs comprise only 60% of the citizen...

End of the Easing Cycle with the SELIC Rate at 4.25%
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Feb 2020

With the economy still “depressed” and inflation below the target, why did the Central Bank decide to interrupt the cycle of lowering the SELIC rate? Before addressing this issue, we point out that in previous communiqués and minutes of COPOM meetings, the Bank insisted that the power of monetary...

Huge surplus in January due to weak spending and strong revenues
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Feb 2020

The fiscal deficit declined to 3.2% GDP in the LTM due to the lack of an approved budget and one-off revenues. Both business sector and consumer confidence remain elevated, suggesting steady growth into Q120. Despite BoI FX intervention of 2.9bn in January, the shekel appreciated by 1.3% against ...

Huge fiscal surplus in January due to weak spending and strong revenues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Feb 2020

Highlights of our weekly macro review: January witnessed a huge fiscal surplus of 5.9bn ILS The LTM deficit declined to 3.2% GDP, from 3.7% in 2019. This is due to the lack of an approved budget reducing spending. In addition, taxes revenues surged on one-off jump in car purchases. VAT purcha...

Life in a parallel universe
TURKEY · Report · 09 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Ankara is continuing with its whatever it takes approach in order to boost growth to a 5% trajectory, as it propagates the now-familiar narrative that this can comfortably be achieved without giving rise to imbalances -- and with a broadly stable lira. It also seems to believe this narrative whol...

Russia cuts interest rate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2020

On February 7 Russia reduced its interest rate for the 6th consecutive time. The Russian Central Bank is dealing with weak inflation. The new 6% interest rate will take effect on February 10. The current interest rate is 6.25%. The RUB has not been impacted by the announcement. Inflation in Janua...

​Gulf weekly: Coronavirus impacts oil and flights, UAE gasfield discovered, PMIs decline
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Feb 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ is considering an additional 600k b/d cut in response to the coronavirus. * Many Gulf airlines have cancelled China flights, and Saudi has ...

Near-term inflation should slow down
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Feb 2020

In our last report, we wrote that, with the dollar having skyrocketed in value against the bolivar over the first few days of the year (42 percent in three business days), we expected inflation to accelerate in January. The ensuing burst of inflation proved even stronger than expected, so today w...

Russia to allow simple visas for 53 countries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2020

On February 6 it was announced that Russia will allow citizens of 53 countries to visit Russia with an e visa from 2021. These cheap electronic visas will be easy to attain and obviate the need to go to a Russian visa center. The countries that will be eligible for them are several Latin American...

Weak industrial output number in December
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Feb 2020

The effectiveness of the MNB's most recent efforts to halt the forint's weak trend against the euro may be undercut by an unusually weak industrial output number, which was reported for December earlier today. Output was down by 3.8% mom on sda basis, implying a 3.4% yoy reduction of output in De...

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