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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Year of the Tin Rat: What can we expect?
PANAMA · Report · 30 Jan 2020

This month China celebrates “the Year of the Tin Rat,” which promises wealth and welfare for families and businesses. The outlook for 2020 for Panama is consistent with this expectation, according to most analysts. The reasons for this optimism (and its downside) are discussed in our report. Posi...

The NBU slashes prime rate by 250 bps down to 11%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Jan 2020

On January 30th, the NBU Board cut prime rate by 250 basic points down to 11%. Consumer inflation slowing to +4.1% ytd in 2019, as well as permanent complaints about expensive loans made the downward rate revision inevitable. At the press-release the NBU mentioned it’s new target of 7% for prime ...

American-Israeli pardoned by Putin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jan 2020

A dual US-Israeli citizen serving a prison sentence for drug possession in Russia was freed on January 30 by order of President Putin. The woman, Naama Issachar, had 9 grams of cannabis in her bag when she transited a Russian airport. Why has Issachar been set at liberty when since April 2019 Mos...

With trade uncertainty eased, 6% growth target can be achieved
CHINA · Forecast · 30 Jan 2020

The United States and China on January 16th struck a "phase one" trade deal, at least easing uncertainty over the future of U.S.-China trade relations. Exports rose 5% y/y in 2019, down 2.8 pps from 2018, while imports rose 1.2% y/y, down 11.6 pps. GDP rose 6.1% y/y last year, down 0.5 pps fro...

Inflation Report: Betting on a self-fulfilling prophecy
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Jan 2020

The CBRT has released this year's first Inflation Report, according to which the Bank kept 2020 and 2021 yearend inflation forecasts unchanged at 8.2% (midpoint of 6.2%-10.2% band) and at 5.4% (midpoint of 3.0%-7.8% band), respectively. Similarly, the Bank tweaked the assumptions behind the forec...

More signs of optimism
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Jan 2020

Approaching the end of 2019, there seemed to be an improving sense of optimism among various segments of the population. On the political side, the success in the general election in the first half of 2019 and the success in installing a relatively strong cabinet in October 2019 fostered an impro...

Russia sells warplanes to Vietnam
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jan 2020

On January 29 it was announced that Russia has sold training jets worth a total of USD 305 million to Vietnam. Russia is the principal armourer of Vietnam. The planes are Yak 130s. The number of jets has not been disclosed. These planes have been sold to six other nations. These training planes c...

A guide to the petro
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Jan 2020

Maduro’s government first announced its intention of creating the petro in December 2017. It would be a cryptocurrency backed by oil and mineral reserves that would free Venezuela’s economy from the dollar’s grip. A year later it sought to sow the idea in the minds of the people by paying a bon...

What impact the coronavirus?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jan 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The Wuhan coronavirus will have a significant impact on the underlying growth rate of the Chinese economy, but this will not show up as lower GDP growth. It will show up as faster credit growth. • The ultimate impact of the coronavirus is likely to b...

QATAR: Change in prime minister but not in policy
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 28 Jan 2020

The news today that Qatar’s Emir had replaced the prime minister came as a surprise, as did the selected replacement, Sheikh Khalid bin Khalifa bin Abdelaziz al-Thani. There was no indication that a change was coming and it seemed to catch many people in Doha off guard. To the best we can tell so...

Guatemala: New broom in town
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jan 2020

Guatemala. President Alejandro Giammattei´s January 14th inauguration speech contained a strong call for action against violence and corruption. He labeled the “maras” and gangs “terrorist groups,” saying the time had come to end the violence, a major factor affecting investment. He also argued ...

Russian industry: Looking beyond the headline numbers
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jan 2020

Rosstat reported recently that industrial output in Russia increased 2.4% in 2019 and 2.1% y-o-y in December, therefore pointing to deceleration given that industry expanded by 2.9% in 2018. The growth in the mining segment of Russian industry decelerated in 2019 but remained quite strong – it gr...

The Monetary Council did or said nothing today, the forint appears largely free to weaken further
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jan 2020

Following today's regular monthly rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Council made no announcement of any policy decision. Especially not one which could be understood as an attempt to stop or reverse the forint's ongoing weakening trend (down 2% vis-a-vis the euro since last month's similar meeti...

Mystery purchase of Russian sovereign debt
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2020

On January 23 it was reported that an unidentified buyer purchased USD 9 billion of Russian sovereign debt. Almost all bonds due to mature in 2025 were bought by an unnamed buyer. It is believed that the buyer is a Russian company. The purchase did not change the value of the RUB.

Uzbek President says he will co-operate with the EAEU
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2020

On January 24 President Mirziyoyev announced that Uzbekistan would work with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). His reasons were that this would mean lower prices and more markets. Up to 80% of Uzbek trade is either with the EAEU or passes through it. He also wished to improve the lot of Uzbek w...

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