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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Ruble bonds: The upside is limited
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jan 2020

The Russian market rallied at the beginning of the year. As a result, OFZ yields in the long end of the curve dropped almost to the level of the CBR key rate. Coupled with the strengthening of the ruble observed in December–January, it makes ruble sovereigns less attractive for international inve...

Taal Volcano eruption
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Jan 2020

Five days after the eruption of Taal Volcano, situated in one of the most popular domestic tourist destinations some 60km south of Metro Manila, Philippine authorities continue to remain on high alert for the possibility of a hazardous explosive eruption (i.e., Alert Level 4, 5 being the highest)...

The South African Reserve Bank gives the economy a boost with a 25 bp cut in interest rates
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Jan 2020

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.25%, and therefore the prime lending rate from 10% to 9.75%, during its first sitting of the year. Prior to this, the last time the MPC had made an ad...

MPC does the expected, very likely not done yet
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Jan 2020

Broadly in line with our expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate (weekly repo) once again today and kept the reduction relatively measured, at a 75 bps clip. The policy rate is now down to 11.25% (simple), which brings the cumulative drop since last July to 1275 bps (s...

Will the Cabinet resign?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jan 2020

Talks about potential resignation of the Honcharuk Cabinet have been circulating already for several months. Allegedly President Office anticipated some toxic deliveries to be completed, like land reform, to replace the Cabinet. Problems with budget revenues as well as falling industry only heat ...

Russian PM and cabinet resigns as Putin announces constitutional shift
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jan 2020

On January 15 the Russian Prime Minister and cabinet all resigned. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev had even been touted by some to be the next president – though his single term in that role in 2008-2012 was not judged a success. Much more likely now is a different successor and constitutional ref...

The Russian government resigns, no immediate change expected
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Jan 2020

​The Russian government resigned in the aftermath of Vladimir Putin’s annual address to the Federation Council, in which the Russian president suggested some amendments to the country’s constitution. It is too early to guess how the government's economic policy may change, but most likely some ke...

Inflation way below target in 2019, but expected to rise this year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jan 2020

Inflation reached 0.0% m/m in December, coming in at the low end of expectations (0.0%-0.1%). Inflation y/y reached 0.6%, up from 0.3% last month. Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) moved slightly higher to 0.64% y/y in December from 0.51% in November. Despite this low he...

Moscow Libya conference fails
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jan 2020

On January 13 a peace conference on Libya ended without an agreement. It was an achievement for Russia to persuade the Libyan Government and the Libyan National Army (LNA) to speak to each other at all. On January 12 Putin admitted that there are Russians fighting in Libya but claimed they were n...

Belarus seeks oil from outside Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jan 2020

On January 14 Belarus stated that it is looking for oil from countries such as Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Azerbaijan. Belarus has regular disputes with Russia which is its main energy supplier. At the moment oil and gas are flowing from Russia to Belarus but Belarus wants to find a long term alterna...

Inflation speeds up as 2020 begins
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jan 2020

In December, the month-on-month inflation rate reached 50 percent (our estimate), higher than the 36 percent we had forecast. Year-on-year inflation thus ended 2019 at about 9,800 percent, compared with our earlier forecast of 9,050 percent. Inflation was pushed up by rising black market dollar p...

CPI-inflation reached a seven-year peak in December
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jan 2020

CPI-inflation for December was reported at 0.3% mom, 4% yoy this morning. The yoy rate was up from 3.4% in November, and it was the highest number on record since December 2012. It was also marginally higher than the 3.9% yoy market consensus, which included us. But importantly, it exactly matche...

Economics: 2020 growth forecasts remain low
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2020

The economic perspectives for 2020 anticipate weak GDP growth, due to lower dynamism in investment and private consumption. Specifically, we at GEA estimate economic growth of 0.2% for 2020 and 1.2% for 2021. Our estimated GDP growth is at the bottom of the range recently projected by other analy...

2020 political drivers and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jan 2020

A relatively quiet week - President Jair Bolsonaro resumes his activities after a period of rest. Civil servants discuss a campaign for salary increases and a possible strike on March 18. On Thursday, January 16, the Central Bank releases the IBC-Br (GDP preview) for November. This week's Talk...

Politics: 2020 challenges and political agenda
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2020 · 1 response

After a year in office, President Andrés López Obrador’s main achievement appears to be his successful bid to sell his political project to a population anxious for much-promised change. While concrete results as such have been meager, AMLO’s popularity remains high, with approval levels between ...

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