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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Year 2020: More of the same amidst a complicated political context
ECUADOR · Forecast · 13 Jan 2020

The slowdown in the economy continued in Q3 2019 with scant growth of 0.1% q/q and a decrease of 0.1% y/y. With these results, 2019 GDP growth might confirm the negative 0.5% we expect, leaving an unsettling economic environment during an electoral year, when the government will have to continue ...

Petroleum and its Reflections on the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jan 2020

A possible escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran triggered fears of a steep rise in the price of oil, which reached US$ 71 per barrel before returning to its earlier level. It’s likely that from the standpoint of the effects on prices, the worst has already passed, but the...

The ANC’s 2020 anniversary celebrations amid power cuts and an insipid economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Jan 2020

The African National Congress (ANC) anniversary celebrations known as "The January 8" celebrations, during which the ANC delivers its annual statement that is essentially the "state of the party address", took place on Saturday, January 11, 2020. The January 8 statements have their origin in the ...

Unlimited monetary expansion with capital controls, and uncertain fiscal accounts
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Jan 2020

Since taking office four weeks ago, the Alberto Fernández government has announced many dispersed economic measures to redistribute income. But there is not yet a consistent or complete plan for stabilizing the economy, and promoting growth -- much less a plan for how to free the economy from the...

Higher bond issuance was offset by stronger consumer savings
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Jan 2020

The fiscal deficit of 3.7% of GDP in 2019 necessitated doubling the net bond issuance, but this was facilitated by stronger household savings. Rates remained on hold, with a strong message that FX intervention is currently the BoI preferred tool. We expect December's CPI to reach 0.1% m/m (0.7% y...

Headline CPI-inflation to have risen sharply in December
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jan 2020

The December CPI-inflation data will be released on Tuesday. On this occasion, the yoy headline rate is likely to rise sharply, to 3.9% from November's 3.4% and October's 2.9%, essentially due to a sizeable base effect related to fuel prices. Please, kindly take note that the MNB is unlikely to r...

Ukraine-Iran tensions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2020

On January 11 Iran admitted accidentally shooting down a Ukrainian International Airlines plane a week ago. Iran had initially denied being responsible. Half of the 173 people aboard were Iranians. Iran has enough enemies and has no reason to provoke Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine have both suspende...

All relatively calm on the Turkish front
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jan 2020 · 1 response

It was a relatively quiet week in Turkey, for a change. After the Erdogan-Putin summit on the 8th of January, twin ceasefires were declared in Syria’s Idlib Province and by the warring parties in Libya. Yet, there is no guarantee that the fragile calm will last in either place. December-Januar...

Weekly highlights: Higher bond issuance in 2019 was offset by stronger consumer savings
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Jan 2020

The fiscal deficit reached 3.7% GDP in 2019. The deficit level has been stable during the past few months. The deficit overshot target by 12bn, with spending overshooting the original budget by 2.8bn and revenues below target by 9.2bn.We expect the deficit to remain at a similar level in 2020, an...

​IRAN: Admission of guilt for downing plane is a risk-off development
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 11 Jan 2020

For three days, Iran insisted that the crash of Flight 752 to Ukraine on Wednesday was due to mechanical error, despite the coincidence of it happening just hours of Iran’s counterstrike on US bases in Iraq. This was maintained despite mounting evidence and accusations from Canada’s prime ministe...

OMAN: Sultan Haitham should be well prepared to address fiscal challenges
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 11 Jan 2020

Oman's bizarre and untested succession system, set up by Qaboos to reduce the risk of rivals (after he’d deposed his father), was supposed to involve three days of deliberation by the Royal Family Council, during the period of official mourning, and only if they could not agree would two letters ...

​OMAN: Succession will be credit-positive
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 10 Jan 2020

A month ago, when Sultan Qaboos checked out early from a specialist hospital in Belgium we said it seemed likely that it had been determined that his cancer was untreatable and he had returned to Oman to die. Sadly, this prediction proved accurate, despite state TV claiming that he was in a stabl...

Ukrainian inflation at 4.1%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jan 2020

On January 9 the Ukrainian Statistics Agency announced that inflation in Ukraine is now at 4.1%. This is a marked improvement over 2018 when it averaged 9.8%. It is also better than in 2017 and 2016.

Russian internet company seeking to provide telephone services
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jan 2020

Yandex is planning to offer phone services. On January 9 it was reported in Kommersant that Yandex is thinking of functioning as a virtual operator. This would be linked to music and films which Yandex also links to. The company does not expect to turn a profit from this but to widen its client b...

Gulf weekly: Iran counterstrike, Kuwait and Bahrain GDP data
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Jan 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Iran’s limited counterstrike on US forces in Iraq seemed to be a signal of de-escalation. * Iraq’s parliament voted to expel US troops. * MBS’s ...

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