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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Stick and carrot
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Dec 2019

After the unsettling riots of last October, the Assembly has given stick and carrot to the government. First, a majority of over 70 votes denied the proposed economic bill sent by the Ministry of Finance as urgent at the beginning of November. Albeit there were political motives behind this den...

Wins in Paris, and gas transit – but weirdness marks IMF talks
UKRAINE · Report · 24 Dec 2019

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy surprised everyone with his stronger-than-expected performance at the Normandy summit in Paris December 9th. On the eve of the meeting, social tension in Ukraine had been mounting, with hardly anyone daring to predict how negotiations might go. Street protesters dema...

Uzbek election marred by irregularities
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Dec 2019

On December 22 Uzbekistan held a legislative election. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe noted that there serious doubts about the fairness of the poll and that certain issues were off topic in debates. Nonetheless this election has not been as unfair as the previous ones. ...

Economics: Ending 2019 on a low note
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2019

The economic indicators and news from the final weeks of 2019 added to the general impression of a softening economy, with especially troubling declines in both consumer spending and private investment, even as the retreat in industrial production deepened. Gross fixed investment accelerated its ...

The Cabinet decided today to withdraw a controversial proposal for Constitutional reform and called for a “national debate” sponsored by the UNDP (United Nations).
PANAMA · In Brief · 23 Dec 2019

The reform was a leading campaign issue by all the parties in the recent presidential contest. Cortizo and the PRD party opted for following a long process of modifications established in the Constitution: two approvals by the Legislative Assembly plus a national referendum. The draft of the init...

Politics: Potential democratic institutional demise
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2019

The latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey coincides with all the other polling data published in the past month on the seemingly contradictory phenomenon of President López Obrador's continuing to enjoy strong yet somewhat weaker approval numbers at the same time as the government he presides over gets...

SAUDI: Khashoggi verdict won't mitigate criticisms that are discouraging FDI
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 23 Dec 2019

Sentences were issued today by the Saudi court trying those accused by the public prosecutor of involvement in the October 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. A brief statement from the public prosecutor said that, of the 11 Saudi nationals put on trial, 5 were sentenced to death fo...

Inflation likely to surprise on the upside in 2020
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Dec 2019

Recent indicators (IP, revenues) point to steady growth in early Q4 2019, unsupportive of lower rates. Residential starts/completions remain fairly strong, supportive of a modest increase in housing/rental prices. We expect inflation to reach 1.2% in the NTM, above market expectations.

2020 growth target likely to be about 6%
CHINA · Report · 23 Dec 2019

The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held by top leaders December 10th-12th emphasized “stabilities.” We believe that “around 6%” is the likeliest 2020 growth target. Infrastructure investment was mentioned, suggesting that infrastructure spending will be used to support the economy...

Forecast with a fork
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 23 Dec 2019

We visualize a single base case for 2020 that splits into two scenarios for 2021–2022. In 2020, the Maduro government runs public policy all year, incentivized by the promise of an electoral victory. The policy stance on price setting and exchange rates stays relaxed, although the legal appara...

Gulf weekly: Kuwaiti cabinet, Qatari budget, Qaboos concerns, Aramco stock decline
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Aramco joined the MSCI EM Index but its price is down -8.8% from its peak. * Qatar budgets a 1.9% spending increase and is reviving projects like t...

Russia risks damaging relationships over Libyan intervention
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2019

On December 22 the US expressed is concern over Russian military support for the rebels in Libya. The United States accused Russian mercenaries Wagner of fighting alongside Khalifa Haftar's forces to overthrow the internationally recognized government. Haftar's men are called the Libyan National ...

US sanctions on Russian pipeline alarm Germany
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2019

On December 20 the US Congress approved further sanctions on Russia. Trump signed the bill. The latest round of sanctions is aimed at the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline. The US 11 billion pipeline is from Russia to Germany passing through Denmark's territorial water. The Germans say the sanctions meddles...

Gas transit deal with Russia: extra hryvnia strengthening looming
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Dec 2019

Ukraine and Russia have reached a deal on gas transit, according to the minutes published at the web-site of the Cabinet. Gazprom will pay $2.9 billion on the Stockholm arbitration. Naftogaz to withdraw any other lawsuits on gas contract 2009. A new 5-years gas transit contract will be signed. In...

Plan to build petrochemical plant in Russian Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Dec 2019

On December 21 it was reported in Vedomosti that Gazprom is planning to construct the world's most northerly petrochemical in Arctic. The plant will produce various types of plastic. The plant will be built on the Yamal Peninsula. This area is where the Bovanenkovo Field is located which is the c...

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