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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The NBU slashes prime rate by 200 bps down to 13.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Dec 2019

The NBU Board decided to cut prime rate by 200 basic points down to 13.5% from December 13, according to the NBU press-release. Sharp consumer inflation slowdown to +5.1% y/y in November as well as positive news about staff-level agreement with the IMF are behind the decision. More rate cuts are ...

CBRT: Toward single-digit, asap...
TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2019

The Monetary Policy Committee reduced its policy rate (one-week repo rate) by 200 bps today, versus a consensus forecast of 150 bps, bringing the cumulative cuts since July to 1200 bps. We are not too surprised because, as we’ve written several times before, the goal here is to get to single-digi...

The December Economic Work Conference
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 11 Dec 2019 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: It is too early to say for sure, but it looks like the Economic Work Conference for later this month will settle on a GDP growth target of “around 6 percent”, which I interpret to mean 5.8 percent to 6.0 percent. There has been an enormous amount of deb...

Year-end inflation call: 9,000 percent
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2019

Consumer prices in November accelerated somewhat less than we had forecast, the result of Black Friday discounts at retail outlets and gentler-than-expected bolivar depreciation. Hence, we are revising our November inflation forecast to 34 percent from our earlier projection of 40%. We revise...

Ukraine's debt to Russia disputed in London court
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2019

On December 9 the UK Supreme Court heard arguments about whether Ukraine had to repay a USD 3 billion loan to Russia. The debt matured in December 2015 plus interest. Ukraine maintains it ought to be allowed to challenge the debt. The Court of Appeal found in favor of Ukraine. The issue has been ...

CHILE: Piñera makes more promises
CHILE · In Brief · 11 Dec 2019 · 1 response

As part of the continuing attempts to respond to the long list of political and social grievances that Chile’s protests have brought to the fore, President Sebastián Piñera announced a third package of reforms, this time aimed at combatting ‘abuse’. He promised to forgive debt and interest for ex...

"Normandy" aftertaste: positive
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Dec 2019

Ukrainians were closely watching the "Normandy summit" yesterday night. Some expected one more shameful failure by Zelenskiy, while others were sincerely nervous about the performance of the inexperienced president. Both groups have been surprised with what they saw at the summit. Despite that no...

CPI-inflation was marginally stronger than expected in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Dec 2019

CPI-inflation for November turned out to be just a bit stronger than expected (3.3% from us, 3.35% from the Portfolio.hu consensus). The actual number was 0.1% mom, 3.4% yoy, the latter up from 2.9% in October, on a fuel-price-related base effect, as we pointed that out in a preview note the othe...

Russia banned from major sporting competitions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Dec 2019

On December 9 the World Anti Doping Agency announced that Russia would not be allowed to take part in most sports competitions for the next 4 years. WADA found that Russia had interfered with data and samples collected to verify that doping was not taking place. This is a blow for Russia. The cou...

Belarus-Russia talks fail
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Dec 2019

On December 8 the presidents of Russia and Belarus met in Sochi. After a few hours of talks no agreement was reached. This bodes ill for Putin's stated plan to achieve full reunification in 2020. Belarus wants to pay the same price for oil and gas as people in Russia pay. Russia does not agree.Af...

The Recovery is Slowly Consolidating
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 10 Dec 2019

No knowledgeable observer has the illusion that monetary policy alone is a suitable instrument to guarantee sustained growth. However, in the absence of an external impulse and considering the tradeoff inherent to fiscal consolidation, that long-run growth comes at the price of contraction in the...

​A farewell-to-year piece by the Cosmic Strategist
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Dec 2019

The final Monthly of 2019 by the GSP Turkey team will be in your inboxes by Friday, Deities permitting.As a eye-opening case of the Common Persons’ discrimination against contrarian intellectuals, GSP Turkey Monthly and Quarterly Reports do not include the views of the renowned Cosmic Strategist....

GDP growth strengthens Guedes and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2019

The Lower House may vote on the new framework for basic sanitation and the bill on the use of ICMS credit by companies. The Senate CCJ analyzes the bill on arrests following a higher court conviction. The STF discusses independent candidacies on Monday, December 9, and the decree on Petrobras’ di...

Sharp inflation decline in November, stronger rate cut looming
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Dec 2019

November CPI sharply slowed down to +0.1% m/m (+5.1% y/y) from + 0.7% m/m (+6.5% y/y) in the prior month. The result beat any expectations. Food prices’ deflation (-0.2% m/m) coupled with sliding prices for clothing and footwear (-1.4% m/m) amid strengthening hryvnia is behind the result. By Nove...

Politics: Latent risk of Chilean-style protests?
MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2019

In light of the mass violence experienced in recent weeks and months in a number of South American countries including Chile, Ecuador, Colombia and Bolivia, we must ask the question whether Mexico might be ripe for such outbreaks. While an initial response to seemingly minor policy moves were the...

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