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Russia and viruses: balances to shrink as global recession nears
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Mar 2020

After the Fed cut its rate nearly to zero and announced plans to massively expand its balance in an attempt to limit the effects of a forthcoming global recession, US stock market futures plummeted by around 5%, followed by a deep contraction in Europe, including Russia. This panic sent the oil p...

Economics: Public finance numbers foreshadow big challenges
MEXICO · Report · 16 Mar 2020

The current administration’s handling of fiscal policy to date poses serious budgetary and financial challenges going forward about which we can glean some warning signs in the latest public finance data. That trajectory will be a determining factor for Mexico’s macroeconomic stability over the s...

Measures to combat the coronavirus
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Mar 2020

Several companies throughout the country are beginning to establish work-from-home policies. Classes in schools and universities are being suspended. There are doubts as to whether the National Congress will function over the next few weeks. The government will announce new measures to contain th...

New game rules set by Covid-19: tighter MNB and looser fiscal policy
HUNGARY · Report · 16 Mar 2020

The negative effects of Covid-19 on the domestic economy already appear significant, and the negative potential is quite large going forward. Tourism is definitely taking a very hard hit, although it is not a major contributor to GDP in any case. Some subsectors of manufacturing, especially the p...

Zelenskiy commits to the IMF priority amid COVID-19 economy stop
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Mar 2020

We are sinking into COVID-19 hysteria fast. Only five confirmed cases in Ukraine (one death) but tension is snowballing. Last week the authorities closed schools and universities for quarantine. From March 17th Ukrainian borders will be locked. And today many cities, including Kyiv-city, announce...

COVID-19 and the Recession Risk
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Mar 2020

Just a week ago we released a Quarterly Outlook in which we projected Brazil’s GDP would grow by 1.5% in 2020. Since then, our understanding of the gravity of the problem caused by propagation of the new coronavirus strain has changed drastically, decreasing the growth probability and increasing ...

Today's stories: HUF 150 bn of FX swaps added, MNB calls for a debt moratorium, forint reacts negatively
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Mar 2020

Well, things are moving so unusually fast that this brief note is actually coming to you a few hours earlier than the monthly report which we prepared with a cut-off on Saturday (two days ago). In the report, we wrote that the MNB was likely to continue to aim at the protection of EURHUF 340 goin...

Politics: An obstinate AMLO misses the mark
MEXICO · Report · 16 Mar 2020

Although President Andrés Manuel López Obrador continues to enjoy historically strong approval levels at around 50%, opinion polls show presidential support is waning. The president’s net approval has dropped 20 points since he took office in December 2018. The massive March 8-9 protest actio...

Russian economic rescue plan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Mar 2020

On March 16 Prime Minister Mishustin announced a USD 4 billion plan to bolster the economy after the coronavirus buffeted it badly. Falling oil prices have also played havoc with the stock market and RUB. Tourism has been severely impacted, especially as the Chinese were the major nationality vis...

Despite the weakening shekel, inflation to remain subdued
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Mar 2020

Inflation in February declined by 0.1% m/m and moderated to 0.1% y/y. The Bank of Israel announced a vague plan of QE by buying government bonds. We expect details to follow, as well as a rate cut. We expect the economy to contract in the coming quarter or two, with many sectors coming to a stand...

The opposition achieves a solid victory in the municipal elections
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 16 Mar 2020

The PRM and allies (opposition) have just obtained a solid victory in yesterday's extraordinary municipal elections. The results place them in an advantageous position to win national elections in May. The counting of the votes in the nearly 400 municipal entities of the country has not yet been ...

YES Bank unfolding
INDIA · In Brief · 16 Mar 2020

As was emphasised by us earlier, the announcements about Yes Bank do not add up to a tidy completed resolution. More information has now come out about what will happen.The (delayed) financial statement of the bank for the quarter ended 31 December 2019 was released. Conditions have deteriorated ...

Despite weakening shekel, inflation to remain subdued, the BoI commences bond purchases
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Mar 2020

Highlights of our weekly report: February's CPI declined by 0.1% m/m and 0.1% y/y (from 0.3% in Jan). Looking ahead, we expect inflation to reach 0.7% in the NTM, with the impact of a weaker shekel being mostly offset by weak consumer demand and lower energy cost. Economic data for February remai...

First significant measures against COVID-19
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 15 Mar 2020

Yesterday, on the eve of the municipal elections, the government announced new measures to face the risk of COVID-19. We believe that this is only the beginning and that more will be taken in the coming days. President Medina has convened the Government Council (meeting of all ministers) to discu...

US imposes more sanctions on Rosneft
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Mar 2020

On March 12 the US Treasury announced sanctions on a department of Rosneft. The US claims that Rosneft is helping Venezuela evade sanctions. TNK Trading International is the Swiss-based entity that is being sanctioned. Any assets it owns in the US or that are controlled by US citizens are now fro...

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