GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The “ceasefire” protocol signed between US VP Mike Pence and President Erdogan was dead on arrival, as parties could not even agree on the definition of the safe zone. Both sides have enough ammo to claim by the deadline (Tuesday, October 22, midnight) the ceasefire agreement has been violated, a...

Ukrainian bank stays in public hands

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Oct 2019

A London court ruled that PrivatBank can pursue claims against its former owners Ihor Kolomoisky and Gennadiy Bogolyubov. The two men have had USD 1.9 billion frozen worldwide. They have failed to have this asset freeze overturned. The news is welcome in Ukraine just as the country is negotiating...

CHLE : Massive protest and state of emergency declared

CHILE · In Brief · 19 Oct 2019 · 1 response

On Friday night Sebastián Piñera declared a state of emergency for Santiago, following the worst riot Chile’s capital has seen since the return to democracy in 1990. Several buses and nineteen metro stations were burned, stores and banks looted, and the headquarters of Enel, an energy company, se...

Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia face obstacles

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Oct 2019

Despite the Steinmeier Formula peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are ongoing. Over 10 000 people protested against the formula in Kyiv on October 14. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said that the negotiations in Normandy in November will be the final opportunity to implement the M...

South Africa’s Integrated Resource Plan 2019-2030 finally released

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Oct 2019

Following the Cabinet’s approval of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) yesterday, Gwede Mantashe (Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy) announced the energy strategy earlier today. This policy blueprint for the electricity sector clarifies a proposed energy mix for the country until 2030.

Russian Audit Chamber says draft budget is far too optimistic

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Oct 2019

The Russian Audit Chamber published a damning analysis of the 2020-22 draft budget on October 11. The Audit Chamber said that the growth forecast is pie in the sky. Claims of rising incomes are bogus and spending plans are unrealisticThe draft federal budget is predicated on a GDP growth of 1.7% ...

Eskom disappoints the nation as it implements unexpected load shedding, while the nation waits to learn about its future

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Oct 2019

During his opening address at the Financial Times Africa Summit in London earlier in the week, President Ramaphosa declared that the government would soon give a deliberation on how the ailing power utility’s (Eskom) debt would be dealt with. As such, Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan sp...

The long overdue IRP approved by the Cabinet to be released on October 18 - but will it create certainty in the energy sector?

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Oct 2019

Electricity in South Africa (SA) is exclusively provided by the state-owned Eskom, supplying close to 95% of the electricity in the country – which is about 45% of Africa’s total electricity generation. Moreover, SA’s power generation is predominantly dominated by coal as well as nuclear energy (...

Election results will raise political pressure on Fidesz

HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Oct 2019

In the local government elections on October 13, Fidesz reached an unexpectedly poor result, losing control over Budapest and around half of major cities, while doing very well in rural areas. This will not change the power structure at the national level, as Fidesz continues to have an impressiv...

Constitutional Court scraps the 2018 tax reform, but gives the Government a way out

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 16 Oct 2019

The Constitutional Court scrapped the 2018 Financing Law in its entirety, as far as we know a first in an already long and well-known history of Colombian tax reforms. The Court’s ruling, the result of a 6-3 vote, considered the bill approved by the Senate was not given adequate publicity prior t...

Russia needs more investment

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2019

October 11 the Finance Minister Anton Siluanov spoke at the Financial University in Moscow. He said more investment is required. Companies have over USD 466 billion in bank accounts. Businesses do not have confidence in the state which is why they do not invest. Siluanov considers growth of 3% as...

Winds of War shift quickly

TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Oct 2019

Singer-actor, former heavy weight boxing champ, ex-convict and philosopher Mike Tyson once remarked “Everybody has a game plan going into the ring. After the first punch to the nose, you scrap it and do the best you can”. This is certainly the fate facing Turkey. Nothing has gone according to the...

Low inflation is supportive of lower rates

ISRAEL · Report · 15 Oct 2019

September's CPI came in according to consensus (-0.2% m/m and 0.3% y/y). There were no major surprises in the various CPI items. Housing (rental) prices (24.5% of the basket) moderated to 1.8% y/y from 2.2% in August. This is significant but this item often fluctuates greatly on a monthly level a...

China: Notes from Washington/Trade War

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Oct 2019

I just returned from a three-day trip to Washington DC meeting local corporates, the Mansfield Foundation, CSIS, the State Department, and officials at the White House. Overall, the tone in Washington is decidedly negative. There is a growing consensus that China is rising, the trade war is hurti...

Putin in Saudi Arabia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Oct 2019

On October 14 President Putin flew to Saudi Arabia. This is his first visit to the kingdom since 2006. Russia's energy minister Alexander Novak and the head of the sovereign wealth fund accompanied the president. Putin met with 300 business leaders from both countries. Various agreements were sig...