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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

South Africa’s economy further derailed by Eskom in 2019, but new developments in energy policy could reduce Eskom’s negative impact
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 06 Feb 2020

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: The last decade was very challenging for the South African economy in a myriad of ways, including growth. The mismanaged economy, along with the resultant insipid growth, lead to a deterioration of South Africa’s macroeconomic fundamentals. What’s...

Extremists and populists – but no majority
PERU · Report · 06 Feb 2020

As expected, no political party won a majority in the rather insipid January special election to elect a new Congress, after President Martín Vizcarra dramatically dissolved the body last September. Votes were spread across the political spectrum. With over 94% of ballots counted, nine parties ha...

Monetary Board cuts policy rates
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Feb 2020

In a move described as “pre-emptive,” the Monetary Board today cut its set of policy rates by 25bp, reducing the key overnight RRP rate to 3.75%. Although the BSP Governor has been signaling that a 50bp rate cut is in store for 2020, we were not expecting a rate cut this early in the year. In his...

Russia's USD 231 billion plan for Arctic oil
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2020

On February 5 the Russian Government announced a scheme to hugely increase Arctic oil production. Oil companies are being offered inducements to drill north of the Arctic Circle. These are mainly tax cuts - oil production tax will be lowered to 5% for the first 15 years. It is hoped that this wil...

​Idlib: A new war might have started
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Feb 2020

With the killing of 8 Turkish military and civilian personnel in Idlib, the long-feared “war” between Turkey and Damascus may have already started. Today, President Erdogan issued his final warning to Assad by saying "Syria is right now trying to buy time by driving those innocent and grieving pe...

Russia to sell missiles to India
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Feb 2020

On February 5 it was announced that Russia will sell S-400 missiles to India in 2021. This will anger the US and possibly provoke sanctions on India. But India is so gigantic that it is hard to push around. The US previously stated that if India bought military equipment from Russian then sanctio...

US Secretary of State visits Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2020

On February 2 Mike Pompeo visited Kazakhstan. He lauded Kazakhstan for genuine reforms over the past year. Pompeo also applauded Kazakhstan for not extraditing people to China. The Kazakh Government has not joined US criticism of China for detaining a million people in Xinjiang.Pompeo assured the...

Credit, employment and expectations
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Feb 2020

The economy seems on track to meet 2019’s 3.3% consensus growth target, and expectations for this year point to something slightly better. Yet averages could mask important differences. Our analysis suggests a credit slowdown is about to begin, which means 2020 could be the peak growth year fo...

​Province of Buenos Aires extends once more the deadline to accepts its debt negotiations to 10 AM EST
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 04 Feb 2020

In the middle of the political commotion of the unexpected death this morning of the federal judge Claudio Bonadio, who headed key judicial trials against Christina Fernandez de Kirchner, and while the National Government makes announcements of its planned schedule to renegotiate its debt, the Pr...

Russian GDP: Growth of around 2% expected in 2020
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Feb 2020

Russia's GDP was up 1.3% in 2019, according to Rosstat, well below the 2.5% growth in 2018. Despite the fact that economic growth accelerated in 2H19 the annual growth figure came as no surprise given that GDP was reportedly up only by 0.9% y-o-y in 1H19. The 2017 and 2018 GDP growth numbers w...

Coronavirus causes postponing of Russian investment forum and evacuation of Russians from China
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2020

On February 4 the postponement sine die of the Sochi Investment Forum was announced due to the coronavirus epidemic. The is a heavy blow because Chinese investment is crucial for upgrading the economy. The Russian Air Force is also evacuating Russian citizens from Wuhan, China.Coronavirus is caus...

Economics: Another month of negative data
MEXICO · Report · 03 Feb 2020 · 1 response

The economic news released in January offered further evidence of a listless economy and the prospect of further weakness to come in what have been the main growth drivers. There were continuing signs of a softening domestic economy as vehicle sales accelerated their fall in December in tandem w...

Central Bank braces for an election year
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 03 Feb 2020

The ruling PLD is seen as positioned to win the majority of districts in the February 16th municipal elections, but the opposition PRM is also expected to make a strong showing, with likely victories in some of the country’s largest municipalities. There are unfortunately few surveys available...

Russian GDP slowdown
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2020

On February 3 the Russian Statistics Agency released news that GDP grew only 1.3% in 2019. In 2018 it was 2.5%. Growth was also low in the previous two years. In 2015 GDP fell due to sanctions.Some experts do not believe the 1.3% growth figure and suspect that the Russian Statistics Agency (Rosst...

Main items on the agenda in February and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2020

Congressional activity resumes Monday, February 3. The Joint Committee for Tax Reform is one of the main priorities. The STF will discuss a case related to retirement. The Central Bank holds first meeting of the year to decide the benchmark interest rate. This week’s Talking Points • Main ite...

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