GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

We deviate from our standard weekly format today, as we limit our coverage only to a brief rundown of key economic data and developments. Our politics author shall follow this up later during the week with his political updates.

Low inflation, strong shekel and mixed growth support rate cut today (Monday)

ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Nov 2019

Rate cut expected today (Monday) We think that weak inflation, a strong shekel and soft underlying growth support a 0.15% rate cut today. Headline inflation is running at 0.4% y/y, and core: 0.5% in October, declining from 0.7% last month and 0.9% two months ago. The shekel has appreciated by 2.3...

The IMF leaves: no signs of close deal

UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Nov 2019

The IMF mission left Ukraine today. The Minister of Finance posted on her Facebook page the letter below. She commented that everything goes well and they’ve reached substantial progress in negotiations. Media wrote the IMF asks questions about Kolomoyskiy and keeps concerns on the NBU independen...

Bridge reopens in Ukraine Conflict Zone

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2019

A bridge in Stanystia Luhanska has been built. This is an act of great significance. The bridge allows people to pass between rebel held territory and land controlled by the Ukrainian Government. The troop pullback has already been completed. Zelensky wants to control the border with Russia, all ...

Russian policymakers spar over growth

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Nov 2019

On November 20 VTB held its annual Russian Calling Investment Forum. Top Russian ministers rowed over who is culpable for the country's anaemic economic growth. The Minister for Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin said that low demand explained feeble growth and that the central bank has miscalcu...

The South African Reserve Bank plays prudent by keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5%

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Nov 2019

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at its final meeting of 2019, leaving the benchmark interest rate at 6.5% and the prime interest rate at 10%, ending the year with only with one change in the repo rate in July 2019. Three mem...

An end to the Trump presidency could significantly impact the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Nov 2019

* Trump has already had a major impact on the Gulf, including in Saudi domestic politics. * The 2020 election is hard to call given a divided Democratic field, the impeachment process and past polling shortcomings in swing states. * The Democrats have all committed to rejoining the Iran nuclear...

The MNB and the EPP: the status quo remains in both areas

HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Nov 2019

Following unsuccessful attempts to break out on both sides, the forint seems to have settled down in the EURHUF 330-335 trading range again. From the point of view of fundamental analysis, this seems to be a logical development.One recent event in this respect was Q3's better-than-expected growth...

Another round of elections appears increasingly likely

ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Nov 2019

The head of Blue and White (Gantz) announced that he has failed to form a coalition in the 28 days allotted to him, following a similar period in which Netanyahu tried to form a government.We now go to a 21-day period in which anyone can try to form a coalition, but this will require the approval...

Russia returns 3 Ukrainian naval boats

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2019

On November 18 Russia handed back 3 Ukrainian naval vessels which were seized a year ago. The 24 Ukrainian sailors were arrested when the boats were seized remain in custody. The return of the vessels is a confidence building measure as part of the peace process.

The government submits a new tax reform

ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Nov 2019

Minister Martinez will be submitting today a new tax reform much leaner than the failed bill of last week. The new bill needs to have different proposals to be considered as new piece of legislation and be treated as urgent and be in effect next year. This reform if approved will help the governm...

Land reform in Ukraine

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2019

A bill is going through the Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) that would speed up land reform. There is a seven year minimum term for the lease of farm land. The government is trying to abolish this limit. There are restrictions on the sale of 41 million hectares. In 2001 a law was passed which banned ...

Essential CIS Politics: November 2019

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 19 Nov 2019

• The Ukrainian conflict is de-escalating but peace is far from assured. • The Russia-Africa Summit was a major success for Russia, which is expanding its influence on that continent. • In Central Asia a common energy market has been agreed but this idea is still in the embryonic stage. • Arme...

Russian PMC struggling in Mozambique

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Nov 2019

In September 2019 200 men from the Russian Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner arrived in Mozambique. They are paid up to USD 3 000 per month which is much cheaper than other PMCs who bid for the job of assisting Mozambique defeat Islamic State. Islamic State is threatening the northern Cabo De...

Economics: Mixed credit market signals in 3Q19

MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2019

The economic slowdown has partially discouraged businesses from taking out loans or tapping into other financing sources in Mexico, but demand for consumer credit remains strong while mortgages and other housing-related credit grew slightly. We observed the private sector making more debt pl...